11.06.2025 tarihinde sembol PAXG hakkında Teknik David_financial_analyst analizi

On Wednesday (June 11), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, showing lower-than-expected inflationary pressures. The overall CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the market's expectation of 0.2%, and rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 2.5%, but higher than 2.3% in April. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% month-on-month and remained flat at 2.8% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.9%. . .The mild data, coupled with concerns raised by Trump's tariff remarks, triggered a sharp market reaction, and investors quickly adjusted their expectations of the Fed's policy and their judgments on asset price trends. This article will analyze the market's immediate reaction, compare the interpretations of institutions and retail investors on the X platform, and assess future trends. . .Market background and immediate reactionBefore the release of the CPI data, market sentiment was tense, and investors paid close attention to whether inflation accelerated due to Trump's tariff remarks. CPI, employment data and PCE are key macro indicators, and the U.S. stock index may be close to a turning point. If the CPI exceeds 2.5% year-on-year, the expectation of a rate cut in 2025 may be shattered; if it is lower than 2.4%, it may be temporarily beneficial to risky assets. These views show that market expectations fluctuate, and generally tend to favor CPI slightly higher than expected (2.5%), as tariffs may push up prices. . .The actual data was mild, triggering a rebound in risk appetite. The U.S. stock market rose rapidly, with the Nasdaq index rising more than 1% after the release, reflecting optimism about easing inflation. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.45%, indicating that market concerns about continued inflation have eased. The U.S. dollar index fell about 40 points in the short term to 98.6279 as traders lowered their expectations for the hawkish Fed. Precious metals performed strongly, with spot gold rising 1.13% to $3,360.05/ounce and the main COMEX gold futures contract rising 1.15% to $3,381.70/ounce. Spot platinum broke through $1,260/ounce, up 3.74%. The main contract of NYMEX crude oil futures rose 2.11% to $66.35 per barrel, despite a 3.5% year-on-year decline in energy CPI. . .European markets also turned to risk appetite, with eurozone stocks rising and German 10-year government bond yields rising slightly by 0.5 basis points to 2.53%, but 2-year yields fell by 2 basis points to 1.84%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 0.56 points to 16.39, the lowest since February 21, reflecting the easing of market tensions. . .Interpretation of institutions and retail investorsAfter the release of CPI data, institutional and retail investors had different views. Institutional analysis is more rational, focusing on Fed policy and long-term inflation trends. The lower-than-expected CPI reinforced expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2025, and the market's pricing for the rate cut in the next year has increased from 67 basis points to 77 basis points, which is good for the stock and bond markets. Another agency acknowledged that the data was mild, but warned that tariffs in the second half of 2025 could push up inflation, and suggested paying attention to US policy uncertainty. . .The reaction of retail investors was mixed with surprise and caution. Some investors were surprised by the soft data, believing that the market's previous expectations of 0.1% month-on-month CPI and core CPI were too pessimistic, but doubted whether the rising trend could continue, as the tariff effect could push up prices. Some investors also mentioned the "hidden dangers" of limited BLS data collection, believing that inflation may be underestimated, echoing reports of BLS staff shortages (reduced by at least 15%). It is believed that although the data is favorable for expectations of interest rate cuts, policy or geopolitical changes may trigger sharp fluctuations in asset prices. . .Compared with before the release, market sentiment has shifted from concerns about high inflation to balanced discussions. Before the release, retail investors were worried that high CPI would suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, while institutions expected a moderate upward trend. The mild data reversed this trend, and institutions were more optimistic about interest rate cuts, while retail investors questioned the sustainability of the rise. . .The impact of Fed policy and market dynamicsThe May CPI data reinforced the Fed's cautious stance. Both the headline CPI (2.4%) and the core CPI (2.8%) were above the 2% target but below expectations, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% at its June meeting. Real weekly wages rose 1.5% year-on-year and hourly wages rose 1.4%, indicating stable consumer purchasing power, reducing pressure for an immediate rate cut. However, the market's pricing of a 77 basis point rate cut by mid-2026 (about two 25 basis point rate cuts) reflects confidence in the Fed's shift to easing, especially when tariffs have not yet significantly increased inflation. . . .Retailers stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, delaying the price transmission effect. Data show that retailers such as Walmart have begun to raise prices, and inflation is expected to rise in the second half of 2025. BLS resource shortages (suspending CPI data collection in three cities and planning to stop publishing about 350 PPI indices from August) have raised concerns about data reliability, which may further disrupt market expectations. . . .The rise in precious metals reflects the market's safe-haven demand for geopolitical risks such as tariff rhetoric and the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The decline in the US dollar is consistent with the reduction of inflation concerns, while the rise in crude oil prices is driven by supply-side factors. The Nasdaq, led by technology stocks, benefited from easing expectations, but the VIX fell to a multi-month low, indicating that the market may be too optimistic and external shocks may trigger a correction. . .Future OutlookLooking ahead, the market faces a delicate balance. The mild CPI provides breathing space for risky assets, but the risk of tariffs pushing up inflation remains. Well-known institutions expect inflation to be close to 3% in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 as retailers gradually pass on costs. If the PCE data continues the CPI trend, expectations for rate cuts may be suppressed. Geopolitical and policy uncertainties such as the situation between Russia and Ukraine and tariff rhetoric may exacerbate volatility in commodity and currency markets. . .In the short term, risk appetite is dominant, and stocks and precious metals may continue to rise unless PCE or employment data unexpectedly rise. The bond market reacted mildly, and the stability of Treasury yields shows that investors are still skeptical about the continued decline in inflation. Retail price trends and BLS data quality need to be closely monitored. If the market believes that inflation is underestimated, confidence may be damaged. . .In short, the May CPI data injected short-term optimism into the market, driving up risk assets and reinforcing expectations of rate cuts. However, tariff rhetoric, geopolitical risks and data reliability issues mean that volatility will remain the main theme in 2025. . . XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD