04.06.2025 tarihinde sembol PAXG hakkında Teknik David_financial_analyst analizi

The US ADP employment report for May was released as scheduled at 8:15, and the data was far below market expectations, triggering a violent market reaction. According to the ADP National Employment Report, the US private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, far below the market expectation of 110,000, the lowest increase since March 2023. Compared with the revised 60,000 new jobs in April, the slowdown in the labor market has further emerged. Although this data, known as the "small non-agricultural", is not directly equivalent to the non-agricultural employment report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be released on Friday, as a leading indicator, it has ignited the market's heated discussion on the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Market immediate reaction: The dollar plunged and gold surgedAfter the data was released, the financial market responded quickly. The US dollar index plunged by about 20 basis points in the short term, hitting a low of 98.9783, breaking the 99 mark, and is currently at 99.0442, showing the market's sensitivity to weak employment data. The U.S. bond market was also under pressure, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield falling 0.58% to 4.421% during the day, reflecting investors' growing concerns about slowing economic growth. At the same time, spot gold rose by $6 in the short term, reaching a high of $3,354.52 per ounce, and is currently trading at $3,352.53 per ounce, highlighting the rising risk aversion sentiment.Institutional investors quickly captured the weak signal of the data. Some analysts said, "The ADP data was far below expectations, only 37,000, the lowest in more than two years. The trend is obvious, and the U.S. recruitment momentum is losing." Retail traders have more complicated emotions. Some traders pointed out: "ADP expected 112,000, but the actual number was only 111,000, slightly below expectations, which may become a trigger for the dollar to sell." In contrast, before the data was released, the market's expectations for the ADP data were relatively optimistic. The market had predicted: "If the ADP data is significantly lower than 112,000, the market may panic due to the slowdown of the employment engine." The actual data was far lower than this expectation, verifying the cautious judgment of some traders.Fed rate cut expectations: market sentiment turns to cautious optimismThe unexpected weakness of the ADP data adds a new variable to the Fed's rate cut expectations. Recently, market discussions on the Fed's monetary policy have heated up due to economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric. Previously, the Fed's March meeting statement adjusted "uncertainty in the economic outlook" to "increased uncertainty", suggesting concern about the downside risks of the economy. The sluggish performance of the ADP data in May further reinforced this concern, and some institutions believe that this may prompt the Fed to reassess the pace of rate cuts.After the data was released, some institutions pointed out: "Job growth has slowed sharply, combined with the JOLTS job vacancy data (1.03 vacancies per unemployed person in April), the labor market is sending a danger signal." Retail traders believe that the timely ADP data has led to a short-term decline in the US dollar, but they are still bullish on the US dollar in the medium and long term. This view was partially fulfilled after the data was released.From a broader market sentiment perspective, the ADP data has exacerbated investors' concerns about an economic slowdown. Well-known institutions pointed out that the labor market continued to cool down under the uncertainty brought about by tariff rhetoric, and companies' willingness to recruit declined. Some companies only selectively filled vacancies and waited for the economic environment to become clear. In contrast, in the last quarter of 2024, ADP employment data showed strong resilience, such as 164,000 new jobs in December and 183,000 new jobs in January, both exceeding market expectations. The sharp decline in May data marks a shift from resilience to weakness in the labor market, which may provide the Federal Reserve with more room for interest rate cuts.Market trend impact: short-term volatility and long-term uncertainty coexistAfter the release of ADP data, the market fluctuated significantly in the short term. The rapid decline of the US dollar index reflects investors' reassessment of the economic outlook, while the rise of gold indicates an increase in safe-haven demand. The euro was boosted against the US dollar and is currently trading around 1.14, in line with the three-month target price predicted by recent institutions. It is worth noting that the total amount of speculative bets on the euro is close to US$12 billion, and traders are generally bullish on the euro, but if the exchange rate falls back to the 1.09-1.10 range, bulls may face the risk of losses. This dynamic echoes the dollar weakness caused by the ADP data, which may further push up the euro in the short term.In the U.S. stock market, the reaction after the data was released was relatively mild, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq index futures fell slightly in pre-market trading, indicating that the market's concerns about the economic slowdown have intensified. In contrast, when the ADP data for October 2024 was released (an increase of 233,000, exceeding expectations), U.S. stocks had a short-term rise. The current market sentiment is more cautious, and investors are waiting for Friday's non-farm data to confirm the true state of the labor market.From a historical perspective, the ADP data is consistent with the long-term trend of the non-farm payrolls report, but short-term fluctuations are not completely related. The ADP data in February 2025 only added 77,000, a 7-month low, and the non-farm data was also weak afterwards, triggering market concerns about a recession. The sluggish performance of the ADP data this time may indicate that the non-farm data on Friday will also be lower than the expected 125,000, which will further increase market volatility.Future trend outlook: Non-farm data is the key, and expectations of interest rate cuts may dominate the marketLooking ahead, Friday's non-farm payrolls will become the focus of the market. Institutions generally expect 130,000 new non-farm payrolls in May and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. If the non-farm data also falls short of expectations, expectations of a Fed rate cut may further increase, the US dollar index may continue to be under pressure, and safe-haven assets such as gold are expected to continue their gains. On the contrary, if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the resilience of the labor market, and the US dollar may rebound.Retail investor sentiment shows that traders have great differences in their views on short-term market trends. Some traders believe that "this week's initial jobless claims and non-farm data will determine the direction of the market, and ADP is just a prelude." Institutions are more concerned about long-term trends. Well-known institutions analyzed that "the slowdown in the labor market may prompt the Fed to release a clearer signal of a rate cut in its interest rate decision on June 19." Combined with historical data, after the weak ADP data in August 2024, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose to 45%, driving a short-term rebound in US stocks. In the current market environment, a similar scenario may repeat itself.Overall, the unexpected weakness of the ADP employment data in May sounded the alarm for the market. The signal of a slowing labor market and the economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric have made investors more sensitive to the expectations of the Fed's policies. In the short term, the US dollar may continue to be under pressure, while assets such as gold and the euro are expected to benefit. In the long term, continued weakness in the labor market may force the Fed to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, but the results of Friday's non-farm data will be crucial. Traders need to pay close attention to subsequent data and the Fed's statements to capture opportunities in the market with increased volatility. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD