Elena_Tradia

طلا پس از شکستن سطح 3032.54 در نمودار 4 ساعته، اصلاح شده و اکنون در حال آزمایش حمایت در سطح 3004.50 است. یک جهش از این سطح می‌تواند منجر به آزمایش مجدد سطح 3032.54 و ادامه روند به سمت 3041.50 شود، در حالی که شکست زیر 3004.50 ممکن است نشان‌دهنده اصلاح عمیق‌تری تا 2984.70 باشد. عوامل بنیادی مانند تنش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی، ترس از تورم و تضعیف دلار از طلا حمایت می‌کنند، اما تقویت دلار و برداشت سود احتمالی توسط بانک‌ها (طبق گزارش COT data) می‌تواند مانع افزایش قیمت شود. با احتیاط و مدیریت ریسک مناسب معامله کنید! سناریوهای معاملاتی: * سناریوی خرید: * ورود: با جهش از سطح 3004.50 و بسته شدن کندل 4 ساعته بالای 3013 (تایید حمایت). * حد ضرر: 2995 (زیر حمایت). * هدف: 3032.54 (هدف اول)، 3041.50 (هدف دوم). * نسبت ریسک به ریوارد: حدود 1:2 برای هدف اول. * سناریوی فروش: * ورود: زیر 3004.50 (شکست حمایت). * حد ضرر: 3013 (بالای حمایت). * هدف: 2984.70 (هدف اول)، 2981.50 (هدف دوم). * نسبت ریسک به ریوارد: حدود 1:1.5 برای هدف اول.

Technical Analysis (H1 Chart):
Gold (XAU/USD) has confirmed a bullish breakout on the 1-hour chart, currently trading at 3024.26 (as of March 24, 2025, 06:00). Let’s break down the key details:1. Moving Averages (EMAs): * The price is above all key EMAs (likely 8, 13, 21, 144, and 200), confirming strong short-term bullish momentum. * The short-term (red), medium-term (blue), and long-term (yellow) EMAs are aligned upward, supporting the price. The price is also above a major trendline (black), reinforcing the uptrend.2. Key Support and Resistance Levels: * Support: * 3013.00: Immediate support (Turncoat Sup), now acting as a pullback level after the breakout. * 3004.50: Stronger support if a deeper pullback occurs. * Resistance: * 3032.54: Previous resistance (Turncoat Res), recently broken. * 3041.50: Next resistance (Untested Res). * 3068.20: Major resistance in the longer term.3. Indicators: * RSI (14): At 48.63, RSI is neutral after a slight pullback from higher levels, indicating the market has room for further upside without being overbought.4. Price Patterns: * Gold has broken above the 3032.54 resistance with a strong bullish candle, confirming a breakout from a consolidation zone between 3013.00 and 3032.54. * The price is now testing the breakout level as support, and a successful retest could lead to a continuation toward 3041.50. * The long-term trend remains bullish, supported by the ascending channel visible on the chart.Fundamental Analysis:
Several fundamental factors are influencing Gold’s price:* US Dollar (DXY): The US dollar has been under pressure recently, trading near a five-month low against a basket of currencies (as reported by The Guardian on March 18, 2025). This weakening dollar, driven by fears of a US recession due to Trump’s tariff policies, is supporting Gold’s rally. However, Yahoo Finance reported on March 24, 2025, that the dollar rose slightly as Trump signaled a tariff respite, which could cap Gold’s gains in the short term.* US Tariffs: Trump’s tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, 20% on China, effective April 2) continue to raise inflation fears, boosting Gold’s safe-haven demand. Yahoo Finance (March 24, 2025) noted that FedEx slashed its 2025 outlook due to economic strain from these tariffs, highlighting broader market uncertainty. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $21 billion of US goods (CNBC, March 12, 2025) and China’s tariffs on US agricultural products (Reuters, March 4, 2025) are escalating trade tensions, further supporting Gold.* Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating conflicts in the Middle East (e.g., Gaza) and Ukraine are driving safe-haven demand for Gold. FXStreet (March 18, 2025) reported that Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, and a Trump-Putin call on Ukraine is under scrutiny, adding to global uncertainty.* Inflation Data: Better-than-expected US inflation data (The New York Times, March 12, 2025) has eased some concerns, but economists worry that tariffs could reignite inflation (Reuters, March 4, 2025). This uncertainty supports Gold as an inflation hedge.* COT Report: The latest COT data (March 18, 2025) shows Non-Commercial traders with 321,654 long positions vs. 63,722 shorts (bullish bias), while Commercial traders (banks) hold 376,717 shorts vs. 91,549 longs, indicating potential selling pressure from banks. However, the net-long position of Non-Commercial traders supports the bullish sentiment.Additional Factors:* Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed is expected to keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% (Reuters, March 13, 2025), but markets are pricing in a 62% chance of a rate cut by June 2025 (Kitco, March 20, 2025). Lower rates would reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting its price.* Market Sentiment: The S&P 500 is down 4.5% in 2025 (The Guardian, March 18, 2025), reflecting a risk-off mood that favors Gold. Posts on X (e.g., @PanteaPeyvandi, March 18, 2025) highlight sentiment linking Gold’s rally to global instability, though this is not conclusive.* Seasonality: Gold often performs well in Q1 due to seasonal demand (e.g., jewelry demand in Asia), which could support the current uptrend.Trading Setup:* Buy Scenario: * Entry: On a successful retest of 3032.54 as support (current price: 3024.26, wait for a pullback and confirmation). * Stop Loss: 3013 (below support). * Target: 3041.50 (first target), 3068.20 (second target). * Risk/Reward: ~1:1.5 for the first target.* Sell Scenario: * Entry: Below 3013.00 (break of support). * Stop Loss: 3025 (above support). * Target: 3004.50 (first target). * Risk/Reward: ~1:1.Conclusion:
Gold has confirmed a bullish breakout above 3032.54 on the 1H chart, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. A successful retest of this level as support could lead to 3041.50 and 3068.20, while a break below 3013.00 may signal a correction to 3004.50. Fundamentals like geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and a weaker dollar support Gold, but a stronger dollar and potential profit-taking by banks (per COT data) could cap gains. Trade with caution and proper risk management!t.me/Elena_Tradia