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Has the price of gold reached its final bullish cycle high at $4,381 during the trading session of Monday, October 20? That session marked the end of an upward inertia phase in precious metals prices, triggering the first retracement since mid-August. However, a retracement does not necessarily mean a final cycle top or the start of a long-term bearish trend. To confirm that gold has made its annual top this October in the commodities market, several technical and fundamental conditions must be met — and at this stage, they are not. 1) To confirm a major cycle top, a strong resistance level and a clear bearish reversal pattern must be observed Looking back at gold’s price history, we can refer to the long distribution phase of 2011–2012, which concluded a bullish trend that had begun at the start of the century. This was followed by a four-year bear market, before a new long-term uptrend began in January 2016. What about the current long-term technical setup? Monthly chart data provide insight into the broader cycle. Gold has been building its fifth bullish wave since the breakout above its former all-time high in March 2024, already exceeding several theoretical price targets based on Fibonacci extensions. The $4,300 region aligns with two major extensions, including the 1.618 “golden ratio” extension of wave 3. However, that alone is not enough to confirm that the cycle top occurred at $4,381. At this stage, there is no distribution pattern or major support break. A drop below $3,400 would be a strong signal of a completed bullish cycle. 2) Gold’s cyclical top will occur when the US dollar confirms a medium-term bullish reversal Gold’s cyclical top will coincide with the moment the US Dollar (USD) establishes a sustained bullish reversal. Gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions: a stronger dollar reduces the appeal of gold for international investors. Once the dollar confirms an upward trend reversal, capital will progressively rotate away from gold — signaling the end of the metal’s bullish phase. The chart below shows the weekly candlesticks of the US Dollar Index (DXY) against a basket of major currencies, highlighting the bullish reversals seen in 2018 and 2021. 3) Gold’s cyclical top will be reached when outflows dominate in GOLD ETFs The gold cycle will top out when capital outflows from gold-backed ETFs become dominant. Inflows into these funds usually reflect investor appetite for the metal. When these inflows slow and reverse, it shows a gradual disengagement from gold’s financial demand — which has played a major role in its 2025 price rally. This shift marks the maturity of the bullish phase. Therefore, the dominance of ETF outflows is an early indicator of an impending gold cycle reversal. For now, according to World Gold Council data, that situation has not yet materialized. 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