تحلیل تکنیکال Swissquote درباره نماد SPYX در تاریخ ۱۴۰۴/۷/۲۱

The sudden resurgence of trade tensions between the United States and China triggered a shockwave across global financial markets last Friday, hitting the S&P 500 index hard. Beijing’s announcement of new export controls on rare earths, followed by Donald Trump’s threat to double tariffs on Chinese goods to 100%, has revived the specter of a full-scale trade war. This escalation caused a sharp technical correction in the U.S. index, which just experienced its worst session in six months. Although negotiations could still lead to an agreement by the end of October between China and the U.S., investors fear a direct impact on the margins of major industrial and tech companies—already weakened by rising import costs and record-high valuations. So, what are the technical damages on the S&P 500 from this renewed trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies? 1) The S&P 500 is rejecting from the upper boundary of its long-term bullish channel During the trading session on Tuesday, September 30, I shared a technical update on the S&P 500 questioning whether an annual high had been reached. The first chart below links to that analysis: The technical damage from the sharp decline on Friday, October 10, remains limited for now, as no major support levels have been broken. However, the S&P 500 has clearly rejected from the upper boundary of the long-term bullish channel in place since 2020 — an area that could correspond to the completion of wave 5 according to Elliott Wave analysis. For the start of this week, the 50-day moving average must be closely monitored, as its breakdown last February marked the beginning of the March/April correction tied to the trade war. The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of the S&P 500: 2) The Russell 2000 index rejects below its all-time high Looking at market breadth, another notable technical weakness appears: the bearish rejection of the Russell 2000 index below its record high of 2,460 points. A rejection under resistance is one thing, but the key now is to avoid breaking support—particularly the 2,360-point level. 3) This technical rejection occurs at very high valuation levels The current valuation of the S&P 500 is historically elevated, near levels last seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble. The Shiller P/E ratio is approaching 40, signaling a pronounced overvaluation of U.S. equities. The 12-month forward P/E exceeds 30, well above its long-term average, while the Buffett indicator (market capitalization to GDP) is above 200%, an all-time record. Such an imbalance heightens the risk of a technical correction if interest rates rise or corporate earnings weaken due to the trade war. 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