تحلیل تکنیکال Zhu-Buffett درباره نماد PAXG : توصیه به فروش (۱۴۰۳/۱۲/۱۹)

Market news:This week, the gold market bucked the trend driven by rising risk aversion and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut. Spot gold rose 1.7% this week, closing at $2,906/ounce, the largest weekly gain in three months. The weak U.S. non-farm data and Trump's tariff policy at the beginning of the week repeatedly disturbed the market, pushing international gold to break through the $2,900 mark; although it fell slightly on Friday due to a technical rebound of the U.S. dollar, the weekly line still stood firm on the 55-cycle moving average, and the technical side showed a medium-term upward pattern. The current market is engaged in a fierce game around "economic cooling-policy shift-geopolitical risks", and the core logic of gold as a safe-haven asset has been strengthened again. Affected by the weak non-farm report, the spot gold price once soared, but after the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell, the London gold price staged a "high platform dive". In the end, the gold price closed slightly lower. Powell said: Despite the increase in uncertainty, the U.S. economy is still in good shape. We don't need to rush to cut interest rates, we can wait for the impact of Trump's policies to become clearer. After Powell's speech, the international gold price fell sharply from the high point after the non-agricultural data, falling to a low of $2,901 per ounce. This week, gold broke out strongly under the resonance of "weak data-policy swing-technical breakthrough". The weekly moving average breakthrough and MACD golden cross marked the opening of the medium-term rising channel. Although it faces the pressure of dollar rebound and profit-taking in the short term, the allocation value of gold will continue to stand out against the background of the global central bank's gold buying wave (according to the World Gold Council data, the global central bank net purchased 31 tons of gold in January) and the Fed's policy shift.Technical Review:Gold rose continuously on Monday and Tuesday this week, and was in a high-level sweep on Wednesday and Thursday, but the closing line was a long lower shadow K bottoming out and rising, always above the short-term moving average, and it was still strong in the short term; the price fell sharply on Friday morning to induce a short-selling situation, and continued to rise in the European session, or bottoming out and rising, so wait for the closing break of 2890-2930! Once it closes above 2930, a new strong upward space will be opened next week; on the contrary, if it closes below 2890, it will weaken and fall next week; He Bosheng believes that it will continue to adhere to the bullish retracement as the main trend, and follow the general trend, because the expectation of interest rate cuts has also been improved, and large institutions continue to be optimistic about the future rise of gold, and technically it has begun to show signs of strengthening. In this cycle, pay attention to the gains and losses of the middle rail support of 2900. If it can be maintained, it will maintain a strong consolidation. If it cannot be maintained, it will be adjusted downward. It is still in the 2890-2930 high range and is repeatedly swept. The key supports below are 2906 and 2884-85. One is the 618 division position, and the other is the previous top and bottom conversion point, as well as the channel retracement confirmation point. The resistance range is 2920-30. Only by effectively breaking through and standing above 2930 can the upward space be further opened! So next week’s operation is recommended before breaking through and standing above 2930. Don’t rush to chase the high position. Either wait patiently for a wave of squatting and stabilizing bullish, or wait for the strong attack to stand above 2930, and retrace to confirm the stable bullish; as for standing above, the upper target is 2942, 2956, and a new historical high.Analysis for next week:Non-farm payrolls and unemployment benefits on Friday are both bullish for gold, but gold still rose and fell, and gold still fluctuated. Gold was sold directly at 2923. Gold fell and harvested as expected. Gold sold two waves of profits after the non-farm payrolls in the US market on Friday, but gold is still fluctuating. How long will it fluctuate?     Gold fluctuated in the box oscillation range for 1 hour, but the 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn around. If it starts to diverge downward next week, the confidence of gold bulls may be suppressed. Gold is still fluctuating in the box, but it should be noted that gold has been under pressure and has fallen rapidly recently, and gold has barely risen and then rushed and fell under the support of various bullish factors. Gold bulls did not break through directly upward with the support of bullish factors, and the strength of gold bulls is not very strong. Gold will continue to sell at highs under pressure at 2930 next week.Operation ideas:Short-term gold 2896-2898 buy, stop loss 2887, target 2930-2920;Short-term gold 2928-2930 sell, stop loss 2939, target 2900-2890;Key points:First support level: 2906, second support level: 2890, third support level: 2884First resistance level: 2920, second resistance level: 2930, third resistance level: 2936