تحلیل تکنیکال tweak896 درباره نماد FTM : توصیه به خرید (۱۴۰۳/۴/۲۵)

Defining cycle by 5 parts: 1. Bottom: price hits lowest before crossover 2. EMA cross up: ema 22 goes above ema 55 on daily timeframe 3. Peak: price peaks in between the ema cross up and downthis period, 4. EMA cross down: ema 22 goes below ema 55 on daily timeframe 5. Bottom: price hits its lowest bottom after the cross Cycle A Bottom A- (Mar 13th 2020) price bottomed $0.0017 EMA cross up A- >68 days later (May 20th 2020) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55 Peak A- >105 days later -(Sep 2nd 2020) price peaked @ $0.0566 >173 days bottom to peak EMA cross down A- > 46 days later -(Oct 18th 2020) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55. Bottom B- >17 days later -(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at 1.262c. (-77% from previous peak $0.0566.) >63 days from Peak A to Bottom B. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Time of Cycle A: 236 days >236 days from Bottom A to Bottom B (entire Cycle A) Time of Bottom A to Peak A: 173 days >173 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell) Time of Peak A to Bottom B: 63 days >63 days Peak A to Bottom B (best buy after peak the best sell) Cycle A most profit: > $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cycle B Bottom B- -(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at $0.01262. EMA cross up B- >66 days later -(Jan 9th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55. Peak B- >121 days later -(10th May 2021) price peaked $0.9588. > 187 days from bottom b to peak b >If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 7597.46% gain. (76x) EMA cross down B- >15 days later -(25th May 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55. Bottom C- >56 days later -(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84% from previous peak $0.01262) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Time of Cycle B: 258 days >236 days from Bottom B to Bottom C (entire Cycle B) Time of Bottom B to Peak B: 187 days >187 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell) Time of Peak B to Bottom C: 71 days >71 days Peak B to Bottom C (best buy after peak the best sell) Cycle B most profit: > $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%) Cycle A + B most profit: > $0.0017 to $0.9588 564x (56400.00%) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cycle C Bottom C- -(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84%) EMA cross up B- >56 days later -(Aug 14th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55. Peak C- >76 days later -(28th Oct 2021) price peaked $3.457. > 100 days from bottom c to peak c >If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 2271.44% gain. (22.7x) EMA cross down C- >37 days later -(4th Dec 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55. Bottom D- >100 days later -(Mar 14th 2022) 100 days later $1.0343 found a bottom (-70%) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Time of Cycle C: 289 days >237 days from Bottom C to Bottom D (entire Cycle C) Time of Bottom C to Peak C: 100 days >100 days Bottom C to Peak C (best buy to best sell) Time of Peak C to Bottom D: >137 days Peak C to Bottom D (best buy after peak the best sell) Cycle C most profit: > $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%) Cycle A + B + C most profit: > $0.0017 to $3.457 2033.5x (203300.52%) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bear Market Bottom Bear- -(Nov 22nd 2022) 359 days later $0.1627 found a bottom (-95.31%) -Ended April 29th 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Time of Cycle D: 532 days >532 days from Bottom C to Bottom of Bear (Entire Bear Market) Oct 19th 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Guessing A2 Length of cycle. A 236 B 258 C 289 days Avg sum/3 = 261 days (July 4th 2024) B-A = 22 C-B = 31 ...31-22= +9 >> 289+9 = 298 days (August 11th 2024) Guessing % gained A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%) B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%) C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%) A+B+C / 3 = 4,366%. B-A= 4268.05 A-C= 1157.12 4268.05 - 1157.12 = 3110.93% instead got the ratio of A/B = 0.4382 x C = 951% Percent gain 0.1707 up 951% = 0.1707 + (0.1707 x 9.5) = $1.7956 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cycle A2 Bottom A2- (Oct 19th 2023) price bottomed $0.1707 EMA cross up A2- >8 days later (Oct 27th 2023) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55 Peak A2- > 147 days later -(March 22th 2024) price peaked @ $1.2295 > 155 days from bottom a2 to peak a2 >If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 620.02% gain. (6.2x) EMA cross down A2- > 37 days later -(April 28th 2024) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55. Bottom B2- >68 days later -(July 5th 2024) price bottomed at 0.03788c. (-69.16% from previous peak $1.2295.) >105 days from Peak A2 to Bottom B2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Time of Cycle A2: 260 days >260 days from Bottom A2 to Bottom B2 (entire Cycle A2) Time of Bottom A2 to Peak A2: 155 days >155 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell) Time of Peak A2 to Bottom B2: 105 days >105 days Peak A2 to Bottom B2 (best buy after peak the best sell) Cycle A2 most profit: > $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Guessing B2 Length of cycle. A:236 B:258 C:289 days A2:262 days Avg sum/4 = 262 days (March 23rd 2025) B-A = 22 C-B = 31 A2-C = -27 ...31-22+27= +36 >> 269+36 = 298 days (April 30th 2025) Guessing % gained A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%) B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%) C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%) A2 $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%) A+B+C+A2 / 4 = 3,429.79%. B-A = 4268.05% A-C = 1157.12% C-A2= 1552.27% 4268.05 - 1157.12 - 1552.27 = 1558.66% instead got the ratio of A (3329.41%)/ B (7597.46%) = 0.4382 x C (2172.29%) = 951% instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ C (2172.29%) = 3.49744 x A2 (620.02%) = 2168.48% made more sense to compare AB to A2B2 therefore went with this > instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ A (3329.41%) = 2.28192 x A2 (620.02%) = 1414.838% alternative average ratio AB + CA2 / 2 = 1559.74% Percent gain $0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ (1414.838/100) ) = $0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ 14.1483) = $0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) = $0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) = $5.73366 B2 predicted price = $5.73366 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If I go by how much I was wrong for A² prediction, then adjust $1.2295 actual A² / $1.7956 A² predicted = 0.68367 X adjusted B² / $5.7336 B² predicted = 0.68367 X adjusted B² = 0.68367*$5.7336 B² predicted X adjusted B² = $3.82564 Adjusted prediction is $3.83 for B2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------