تحلیل تکنیکال Yuliya10 درباره نماد PAXG : توصیه به فروش (۱۴۰۳/۳/۲۰)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Tm2C8XRx/On Friday (June 7), the spot gold market encountered a sudden storm. The release of the US non-farm payrolls data unexpectedly showed strong growth momentum. These two negative news caused the gold price to fall all the way, from a high of $2,387 to a low of $2,286, with the largest single-day drop reaching $100. So far, the gold price has been on a downward trend for three consecutive weeks.According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in May was as high as 272,000, which was not only far more than the 165,000 in the previous month, but also higher than the market's expected value of 180,000. This strong employment growth trend has obviously reduced the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term. At the same time, the unemployment rate also rose slightly to 4%, higher than the market's original expectation of 3.9%. Although this small increase seems insignificant, considering that the unemployment rate has remained below 4% for 27 consecutive months, setting a record since the 1960s, this change has attracted widespread attention from the market.On the other hand, Bloomberg reported on Friday that after 18 consecutive months of uninterrupted purchases, the People's Bank of China maintained its gold holdings at 72.8 million ounces in May. However, the central bank's decision to suspend gold purchases has undoubtedly dropped a bombshell on the market, removing an important pillar that has supported gold prices to hit record highs many times. At the same time, the unexpectedly strong US non-farm payrolls caught gold bulls off guard, and gold prices were forced to pull back to below the round mark of nearly $2,300.Faced with such a market structure, traders have become particularly sensitive to the future monetary policy trends of the Federal Reserve. The market expects that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June or July has dropped significantly, and next week's meeting may continue to lay the foundation for a rate cut policy later this year. As for the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, the market generally expects that it may be postponed to November, rather than the original September.In the coming week, the market will pay close attention to a series of important economic data. On Wednesday, the announcement of the US CPI and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision will bring new guidance to the market. On Thursday, the release of the US PPI, the number of initial jobless claims for the week, and the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Japan will also have an important impact on the market. On Friday, the release of the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is also worth looking forward to.From the market trend, the price of gold stabilized at $2,315 on Wednesday and Thursday and then rose, successfully breaking through the suppression levels of $2,354 and $2,364, and once hit the high of $2,388. However, with the successive impact of negative news, the bulls' offensive quickly collapsed and turned into a market pattern dominated by bears. On the daily chart, the price of gold closed with an extremely long negative line, breaking through the support level of $2,315, approaching the low point of the previous round of correction, and finally reaching a low of $2,286.70.The decline in the price of gold this time was far beyond expectations, which was contrary to our judgment on the entire correction since the high of $2,450. Prior to this, we had always regarded the market's correction as a correction to the previous gains, and when the gold price hit $2,315 again in the middle of the week, we thought that this area might form a double bottom support, and expected the market to gradually turn to bulls. However, the dive after $2,388 was completely beyond our expectations, and the negative impact of non-agricultural data was far beyond our imagination.For the trend next week, we need to pay attention to the following points:First, due to the sharp drop in gold prices this week, and the decline is too large, the market may rebound and correct when it opens next week. In this process, we need to pay close attention to the performance of the $2,285 support band, and expect the market to rebound to a certain extent at the beginning of the week.Secondly, due to the large and powerful decline, the market is less likely to turn directly to bulls. In this case, the previous low of $2,315 may change from support to suppression, and we can consider short selling when it rebounds to this position.Finally, from the perspective of the large cycle, although the gold price fell by more than $100 this week, the increase in spot gold this year is still more than 10%, and the overall market still shows a strong upward trend. However, whether it is the first time to refresh the historical high above $2430 or the current impact of $2450, the area above $2400 shows obvious pressure. Therefore, we believe that the current decline is still in the correction category, and investors can take advantage of this round of downward correction to intervene in the long-term operation of the band.Specifically, pay attention to the support low of $2385 at the opening of next week, and look at the rebound first. Pay attention to the suppression level of $2315 above. The first few rebounds on the market have touched this position. We can consider shorting around $2315.I wish you all a happy weekend, and I hope my analysis is helpful to youHave you not opened a real account yet?I said the decline would continue next week.The current downward trend is still in the correction categoryPlease be prepared for trading, the opening time is very close