fxwithkay

🔻 Market StructurePrice is printing lower highs and lower lows — a typical bearish structure.The recent bearish impulse broke below short-term support (~3383), showing momentum is on the downside.Current price action shows a pullback into previous support turned resistance (3383–3385 zone).Bias: SELL ✅Market is bearish — lower highs, lower lowsPrice is pulling back into 3383–3385 resistance zoneAs long as price stays below 3386, we’re sellingEntry: 3383–3385SL: 3390TP1: 3376.30 (50 pips)TP2: 3372.00 (100 pips)Note: FOMC later today — expect volatility. Don’t force it if there's no clean setup.

Market Structure & Bias:The chart shows a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.Price recently retested a previous support zone and bounced back slightly.The Sell Zone around 2893 – 2909 has been marked as a key area of interest for potential short positions.Possible Scenarios1️⃣ Bearish Bias Primary SetupPrice pushes into the Sell Zone 2893 – 2909 and forms a rejectionA strong bearish candle or break of lower timeframe structure confirms the sell setupEntry In the Sell Zone after confirmationTarget 2812Stop Loss Above 2909 to avoid liquidity grabs2️⃣ Bullish Scenario Less LikelyIf price breaks above the Sell Zone and holds above 2909 we could see a shift in market structureIn this case price may target 2919 – 2942 previous supply areaConclusion🔴 Bearish bias remains dominant unless price breaks and holds above 2909🔴 Ideal trade setup Wait for rejection in the Sell Zone for a short position targeting 2812🔴 If price fails to reach the Sell Zone and starts breaking below 2871 a continuation downward could begin early📌 Stay patient wait for confirmations before entering trades 🚀

Gold has broken below a key consolidation zone, indicating potential for further downside.🔹 Sell Zone: Watching 2902 - 2905 for a possible retest before continuation.🔹 Bearish Confirmation: A rejection at this zone could signal further selling pressure.🔹 Target: A move towards 2854 if price respects the structure.📌 Trading Plan:✅ Wait for a pullback to the sell zone before entering.✅ Look for confirmation (rejection or bearish candlestick pattern).✅ Manage risk with stops above recent highs.Patience is key—let the market come to you! 📊🔥

Bias: Sell 🔴 (If Price Breaks Below 2892 - 2890)Reasons for Sell Bias:1️⃣ Rejection from 2940 Resistance • Price reached a key resistance zone and strongly rejected downward, showing seller dominance.2️⃣ Bearish Momentum & Breakdown • The market has been making lower highs and lower lows, indicating a shift to a downtrend.3️⃣ Potential Break of 2892 Support • If price breaks below 2892 - 2890, a further drop toward 2880 and lower is likely.

Looking at the chart, Gold is currently ranging within a Ranging Box and is testing a key Sell Zone at 2863 - 2866.Expected Market Movements: 1. Bearish Move First: • If price respects the Sell Zone, we might see a short-term drop to lower support levels around 2850 - 2827 before gathering liquidity. 2. Bullish Reversal Expected: • After liquidity grab at lower levels, a bullish push could send price rallying back up to 2874 - 2890.Key Levels to Watch: • Sell Zone: 2863 - 2866 • Support Levels: 2850 2839 and 2827 • Resistance Levels: 2873 - 2890🔹 Strategy Suggestion: • Look for sell entries if price holds below the sell zone. • Watch for a buy setup after the liquidity grab below 2850.📌 Stay patient and wait for confirmation before entering trades!

Gold is currently in a strong bullish trend on the H4 timeframe, consolidating near 2867 after a sharp rally. Based on NFP expectations:🔹 Possible Fake-out: We might see an initial bearish spike (liquidity grab) to sweep weak buyers before the main bullish move continues.🔹 Key Levels to Watch: • Support: 2845 - 2830 zone (potential buy area if price wicks down) • Resistance: 2875 - 2885 zone (if price breaks above, more bullish momentum)

Reasons for Buy Bias:1️⃣ Support Zone Around 2854 - 2856 • Price has reached a key support level and is showing rejection wicks, indicating buyers may step in.2️⃣ Oversold Pullback Potential • After a strong drop, price may need a retracement before deciding the next major move.3️⃣ Bullish Wick Rejections on Lower Timeframes • If price holds above 2854, we could see a bounce toward 2862 - 2870.

Bias: Sell 🔴Reasons for Sell Bias:1️⃣ Rejection at Resistance (2862 - 2870) • Price has reached a key resistance zone and is showing signs of rejection with a strong bearish candle.2️⃣ Overextended Bullish Move • Gold has been in a strong uptrend, but this sharp rally might need a pullback before continuing higher.3️⃣ Bearish Candlestick Formation • The latest candle is a strong rejection wick, indicating that buyers are struggling and sellers are stepping in.

Given the potential impact of today's CPI release, my bias leans slightly towards sell for XAU/USD, assuming the CPI comes in higher than expected, which would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase the likelihood of further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. This scenario would put downward pressure on gold prices.However, if the CPI data comes in lower than expected, indicating inflation is cooling, I would switch to a buy bias, as a weaker dollar and reduced rate hike expectations would likely push XAU/USD higher.Look for Entries, in the New York Session

NFP Bias: The outlook for today is slightly bearish on XAU/USD if the NFP report indicates strong economic data, as this would likely strengthen the USD and increase the likelihood of further interest rate hikes. However, flexibility is essential, as a downside surprise in the NFP report could signal a potential bullish rally for gold.In summary, trading should be based on the market’s reaction to the NFP, with close attention to key technical levels and the use of risk management to navigate the volatility that typically follows this news event.