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The current Elliott Wave pattern analysis remains valid as long as price stays below $2,757Daily closes above $2,757 would invalidate the current wave countTraders should exercise caution and consider adjusting positions if price approaches this critical levelThis invalidation level serves as a key risk management point for positions based on this analysisThis creates a clear strategic boundary for:Risk managementPosition sizingStrategy validationStop-loss placementTrading Tip: Using daily closes rather than intraday spikes provides more reliable signals and helps avoid false invalidation due to market noise.Invalidation Level: Elliott Wave Pattern Becomes Invalid Above $2,757My EW count remains valid.

Confirmation Level: 97544Invalidation Level: 92520

Gold appears to be completing an Elliott Wave correction patternWave ((4)) is forming a regular correction near $2665 levelOnce Wave ((4)) is complete, expect Wave ((5)) to move towards $2600-$2590 areaKey invalidation level remains at $2699.91Short positions can be considered after Wave ((4)) completion and momentum confirmationCurrent price action suggests limited upside potential before bearish continuationKeep in mind wave patterns can shift. Always use proper risk management and wait for clear confirmation before entering trades.Stay cautious around key economic events and monitor dollar strength which could impact the expected move.

Gold is waging a battle to clear out short positions before a major decline. The news about China's gold purchases appears to be part of this strategic market manipulation. According to Elliott Wave Theory, the 4th wave must exhibit an ABC structure, and we haven't yet observed a clear C wave formation. Therefore, we should anticipate a downward movement, using 2721 as our invalidation level.Currently, the C wave's second wave is nearing completion. Under these conditions, the minimum target zone for the decline lies between 2450-2400.

On the Weekly timeframe, the open liquidity at 2758 has been cleared, followed by price targeting the FVG (Fair Value Gap) between 2529-2546. After filling this FVG, price action targeted the 2724-2686 range that formed during the downward movement, which has now been filled. The next potential targets are the open liquidity at 2536 and the POI (Point of Interest) zone between 2450-2496. An alternative scenario could see price targeting the open liquidity cluster between 2364-2353. This analysis becomes invalidated with a weekly close above 2721.The market structure suggests we're in a methodical liquidation phase, with key technical levels being systematically tested and cleared. Keep in mind that while these targets present opportunities, proper risk management is essential, particularly at these critical price points.

W0-W1: 1614-2079 (+465 points)W1-W2: 2079-1810 (-269 points)W2-W3: 1810-2790 (+980 points)Let's create scenarios following the rules:Scenario 1: Simple W4 CalculationSince W2 is complex, W4 will likely be simple (alternation principle)W3 movement = 980 pointsMaximum allowed for W4 = 50% of W3 = 490 pointsTherefore first target range: 2790 - 490 = 2300 levelScenario 2: Price Relationships Based on RulesW4 should be > 38% of W3 (minimum requirement)38% of 980 = 372.4 pointsThis gives us minimum target: 2790 - 372.4 = 2417.6Price Target Range Based on Rules:Minimum: 2417.6 (38% retracement)Maximum: 2300 (50% retracement)Most probable: 2350-2400 (based on 43-45% retracement)Time Considerations:Since W2 was complex, W4 should be shorter in timeW4 should take between 20% to 100% of W2's time durationKey Warning Signs:If W4 goes below 2079 (W1), it would invalidate W5 setupIf W4 exceeds 50% of W3 (below 2300), probability of 5th wave failure increasesMost Likely Scenario:A simple zigzag correction targeting 2350-2400 area, taking less time than W2, with oscillator crossing zero line at least twice during the movement.The ideal scenario would see W4 as a zigzag pattern staying above 2300, not penetrating W1 high of 2079, and completing within a shorter timeframe than W2.

Primary Wave Count: The chart indicates we are in Wave 3 of a larger impulsive structure, with a potential pullback forming Wave 4 before the final push to complete Wave 5.Key Levels: Wave 4's main support zone aligns with the 2412–2471 range, where buyers are likely to step in for the next upward leg.Invalidation Point: The ongoing 4th corrective wave would be invalidated if prices rise above the 2721 level, indicating the structure is transitioning into an alternative wave scenario.Wave 5 Target: Wave 5 is projected to extend towards the 2935-3000 region, completing the current cycle with a likely divergence in momentum indicators.Momentum Confirmation: RSI divergence at Wave 3’s peak supports the corrective pullback scenario, while maintaining bullish momentum for the final impulsive wave.

Looking at the updated Elliott Wave analysis of Gold (XAUUSD), we can observe a clear ABC corrective structure:Wave A completed a 5-wave decline from the highsWave B formed as a corrective rally, reaching around $2720Wave C is now in progress, developing as a 5-wave impulse structure downwardCurrently in Wave C:Wave (i) has completed and Wave (ii) is nearing completion.Wave (iii) appears to be developing, showing the characteristic strong momentum of a third waveExpecting wave (iv) to form a small corrective bounceFinal wave (v) should complete the entire ABC structureKey Levels:Wave B high: ~$2720 (invalidation level)Current price: Testing key support levelsTarget for Wave C completion: ~$2450The parallel channel formation helps guide the price action and suggests the bearish momentum could continue until reaching our target zone. Traders should note that completion of this ABC structure could lead to a significant reversal.

The internal structure shows smaller degree waves labeled as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), and (v), particularly visible in waves (3) and (5). The parallel channel lines helped identify the trend direction and potential support/resistance levels.The projected target for wave (5) completion appears to be around the 2,535-2,550 zone, where we might expect some support and potentially a larger degree bounce.Key levels to watch:Previous high: 2,721Current invalidation level: ~2,649Target support zone: 2,535-2,550Traders should be cautious as wave (5) completions often lead to sharp reversals, especially in gold markets. The completion of this 5-wave structure could lead to a significant corrective bounce.