bigbull037

- QQQ economy is holding because of big cap tech spending. Underlying economy has can of worms. - Be it consumer discretionary, defensives or real estate. All are in recession. - Consumer doesn't have confidence to spend. - Trump tariff is hurting Americans more. Tariff dividend is stimulus check of 2000 whereas cumulative pressure because of tariff is approx 10,000 per person. - Only way to save economy is by taxing AI companies and passing a bill that prevents layoffs. - Layoff only helps elite class who get paid in stocks. These exec fire people in the name of productivity to keep stock price high and cash out fat bonuses. - Only way to save humanity at this point is via legislation and by prevention of human replacement by robots and AI.- if there's a fear that one can lose job then people wouldn't spend or purchase big things like car, homes and will even cut corners on things which they don't need.- Consumer confidence will return only when consumers feel they have job security and they can't be fired easily and/or there are plenty of jobs which pays same or more than they make

- HOOD phenomenal numbers will start to deteriorate as soon as trading volume dries up. - This will happen the moment we enter a bear market or a correction. - HOOD will look overvalued in books, numbers for growth will turn south. - Silver lining is Vlad Tenev emptied his bag and dumped it on institutional investors and retail investors. - There would be race to exit very soon. - Good luck everyone.- Non-stop selling by the CEO is very re-assuring indeed openinsider.com/insider/Tenev-Vladimir/1871006Fundamentally, Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |2028 EPS | 1.75 | 2.10 | 2.59| 3.15 EPS% | 83.92% | 19.60% | 23.84% | 21.52% - Best time to enjoy the parabolic gains were 2024 & 2025 because EPS was growing triple digits in 2024 and high 80s in 2025 but going forward it will only grow low 20s. - Explosing growth story is over, multiple normalization will take place and financials usually trade at a lower forward p/eBased on low 20s EPS growth, fair forward p/e should be 20. Therefore, fair stock value: Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 EPS | 1.75 | 2.10 | 2.59 | 3.15 Fair Stock Price | $35 | $42 | $51 | $63- I will only consider buying hood at $42-50 range if it reaches there in 2026 ( high possibility )

- August correction incoming? 🚨 - Greed is all time highs; People are complacent - I believe a correction of 5-10% is healthy for the market to flush out excess and remove junk investments from the market. - This involves people who are over-leveraged gets trapped. - Personally, taking profits from risky bets, some profits from quality names and raising cash. - Rotating money to defensive names. - Not exiting the markets completely.Selling into strength to keep cashing out profit.No one got broke taking profits!Every pop is opportunity to sell and secure profits!- Trump imposed 25% tariff on India. This one won't be easy to deal with RIP QQQ SPYFOMC on July 30, 2025. Interesting to see what Jerome has to say after tons of bashing by Trump lately!Did Jerome powell just indirectly say that Trump policies are inflationary? Does this mean higher rates for longer?- Large cap is holding it up. People are taking profits, all pops are sold off. - QQQ needs correction to find buyers who are comfortable buying at those levels.- Market is bipolar, Outside of big caps, all other stocks and industry are entering a bear market. - Mag 7 by the virtue of being capital rich are spending like a drunken sailor in the infra but the underlying economy is weak. Be it restaurants, housing or consumer cyclical. - It'll take only one shot of realization before house of cards fail. If big cap tech stocks start cutting spending and start optimizing the resources they have. House of cards will fall faster than expected. - Until then it's rolling recession.- Market participants were pumping markets because of AI. - AI is deflationary no doubts about it. - Very shortly, people will fear deflation more than Inflation because AI will eat jobs and unemployment rate would be higher and a new normal would be higher unemployment as AI matures. - New Graduates are finding it hard to find jobs. People who are laid off are also finding it tough to land a job. - This trend will continue and it might boost profit margins of the companies in the short term but it's really bearish for the whole world in general.- Why unemployment has remain steady is because high paying jobs are getting lesser and lesser and replaced with low quality jobs which are seasonal. These low quality jobs can't stimulate the economy. - Same store sales are decreasing be it CMG , SBUX which should alarm anyone just an example.- Nonfarm payrolls growth totaled 73,000 for July, above the June total of 14,000 but below even the meager Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 100,000. - June and May totals were revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels. - The weak report, including the dramatic revisions, could provide incentive for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates when it next meets in September. - Health care and social assistance combined for some 94% of the job growth.- Health care and social assistance combined for some 94% of the job growth. This is because of aging population. - Job creation isn't happening because of AI killing jobs. - Economy is weaker than most people expect. It's visible from earnings of restaurant, casinos, airliners, fedex/ups etc. - It's not been announced but let me tell you were have entered in a recession but officially it's not been announced!- B2B spending is masquerading the underlying can of worms. - B2C is already exposing flashing red lights of Recessionary pressures.

- GOOGL perhaps good news are already priced in? - No positions on GOOGL but interestingly it has given both bears and bull something to consider? - Spectating what happens next! - Interesting setup, bulls eyeing 200+ and bears targeting low 160s - Good luckGOOGL already ran up 20% pre-earnings. Would be funny if it goes higher after reporting earnings.- Muted reaction +/- 2-3% on earnings despite earnings were good.Industry wide correction might push it down to $160-165 range

- HOOD valuation is way stretched and it should correct to a reasonable valuation. - This needs correction. Let's see how it folds out in next 6-12 monthsTarget Point 1: $90 Target Point 2: $75 Target Point 3: $61.75 Target Point 4: $49 Target Point 5: $31I am not counting on target point 4 & 5 given how cultish this stock is. But target point 1 & 2 seems reasonable if the earnings disappoint and target point 3 if recession fear strikes or trump tariff fiasco unfolds furtherI have analyze basket of stocks of investors who invested in HOOD also invest in PLTR , SOFI , RKLB , OKLO , HIMS - These investors have made HOOD valuation very insane and have squeezed all future gains by front loading it to present and made HOOD almost un-investible. - Un investible implies when market participants front load gains in a stock few year in advanced in anticipation of growth in some years to come. This leads to parabola and strong momentum and then eventually side ways action for years when fundamental actually catches up.- HOOD investors are booking profits and appears to be rolling it into SOFI is my observation lately- Good earnings but all good news are priced in. Valuation is too highre-iterating point targets: Target Point 1: $90 Target Point 2: $75 Target Point 3: $61.75 Target Point 4: $49 Target Point 5: $31closed short at $92

- Open AI building it's own Browser. They have the talent to build it. - Apple buying Perplexity AI - GOOGLE chrome isn't the best. I find Firefox better than Chrome but that's subjective. There's no stickiness in web browsers honestly. It's just that there are no good options. - Recently, Google chrome added some weird looking AI summarizer on top which must be reducing number of organic hits to the website. - I'm bullish long term but bearish short term. Open AI is really disruptor and has strong talent density better than Google in my opinion.- Perplexity launched their own browser : comet comet.perplexity.ai/

- GOOGL is one of the hated FAANG often get hit in the crossfire of misinformation campaign be it Ads related or Search related. - GOOGL is a verb and has lot of things going in favour. Leader in Quantum Computing, Healthy Growth in Cloud Services, Leader in Adtech, De-facto standard for Searches. - Gemini is a decent LLM and I am seeing diversification of LLMs in the industry. - Waymo is leader in autonomous vehicles. - Google has invested in the future like SpaceX which could easily multiply its investment. Fundamentally, Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 EPS | 9.54 | 10.18| 11.71 | 13.21 EPS% | 18.93% | 6.71%| 15.10%| 12.81% Base Case (Forward p/e ~ 20 ) Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock Price | $190 | $203 | $234 | $264 Bear Case ( Forward p/e ~ 15 ) Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock Price | $143 | $152 | $175 | $198 Bull Case ( Forward p/e ~ 25 ) Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock Price | $238 | $254 | $292 | $330 Comfortable buying GOOGL < 160 and targeting $210-220 in 1-1.5 year timeframe.My fair value for GOOGL in 2025 is between $190-205Stay strong, Stay long on GOOGL ;)Google is undervalued by 20-25% at $165 as of May, 2025- Google IO was phenomenal in one word! - This company is innovation powerhouse! Impressive :) - GOOGL should trade > $200+10 days in a row. GOOGL was green. Getting nervous for the earning report. Do we have anything to be excited about as we had a great run pre-earnings?~ 4% pop after hours. Fintwit team is busy pumping GOOGLGOOGL is trading at $260 as of October 26, 2025

- NVDA has completed it's motive wave 1-5 and currently is under corrective wave ABC. - Within ABC leg, it's under the leg C where it will eventually find a bottom and then start fresh motive wave 1-5. - Chart looks interesting and monitor carefully for the entry when it corrects!NVDA is heading to 105-112 range. I believe most of the TA here were wrong and calling for $240. - I remain optimistic about NVDA as their chips are best in the game but I won't pay more than intrinsic value to buy it. - I'll be buying shares of NVDA in 115s and below in increments- NVDA dipped to $112-$115 during deepseek narrative. Bought the dip @ 116 and sold at 143 for roughly ~20% gain. I believe NVDA can go to 165 post earnings but I would recommend selling into strength than adding more as late half of 2025 earning growth will be slower as compared to last year so premium multiple might compress🎯 🎯 🎯