agatarigan

Someone asked me about predicting market movements with certainty. In response to a question about detecting large orders and forecasting market direction, let’s explore how markets truly operate and how to grow as a trader.The Nature of Market MovementMarkets move through collective behavior, not individual orders. Even when sentiment indicators show a near 50:50 split between short/long positions, markets can still trend strongly in one direction. Why? Because market movement depends on:The aggressiveness of orders (market orders vs. limit orders)Timing of trade executionPosition sizes and their distributionPsychological factors affecting mass behaviorExample:Imagine BTCUSD with apparently balanced sentiment. Yet, if long positions are primarily passive limit orders while shorts are aggressive market orders with tight stops, the price could trend down sharply despite the "balanced" ratio.The Illusion of CertaintyThere is no way to predict market direction with certainty. The market comprises millions of participants with:Different analysis methodsVarious timeframes (scalpers to long-term investors)Diverse motivations (hedging, speculation, investment)Unique reactions to the same newsReal-world Example:During major news events like FOMC meetings, you'll often see prices swing violently in both directions. Why? Because even with the same information, traders interpret and react differently based on their:Portfolio needsRisk toleranceTrading timeframeOverall market viewBuilding Better Trading HabitsInstead of seeking certainty, focus on developing good trading habits:1. Risk Management FirstUse proper position sizing (never risk more than 1-2% per trade)Set stops based on technical levels, not arbitrary numbersExample: If trading support/resistance, place stops beyond the next significant level, not just at round numbers2. Asymmetric ReturnsAim for trades where potential profit exceeds potential lossTarget 1:2 risk-reward at minimumExample: If risking $100, your minimum target should be $200 profit3. Consistency in Strategy - Stick to your trading plan even when other strategies look attractive - Document all trades and review regularly - Example: Keep a trading journal with setup, entry, exit, and lessons learned4. Building Good HabitsStart each day with market analysisReview major news and potential impactSet clear entry/exit rules before tradingRegular review of trading performanceExample Schedule: - 8:00 AM: Market overview - 8:30 AM: Review potential setups - 9:00 AM: Check for news events - 4:00 PM: End-of-day reviewCommon Pitfalls to Avoid1. Strategy HoppingSwitching strategies frequently based on recent performanceFollowing multiple traders with different approachesSolution: Commit to one approach for at least 3 months2. OvertradingTaking trades out of boredom or FOMOSolution: Set daily/weekly trade limits3. Revenge TradingTrying to recover losses quicklySolution: Take a break after losses, review what went wrongRemember: The market doesn't care about what you want. It moves based on collective action, not individual desires. Focus on adapting to market conditions rather than trying to predict them.Your success in trading isn't determined by how much you know, but by how well you apply what you know through consistent, disciplined habits.

Analisa saya sebelumnya menyebutkan bahwa perkiraan saya pada harga XAUUSD adalah kenaikannya sampai pada target terderkatnya di 2426.530, kemudian pada Old High yang kini sudah di break oleh harga dan menjadi high baru atau ATH baru pada harga emas. Kali ini, Emas sudah memberikan penolakan harga yang cukup kuat dengan dibuktikan oleh +FVG yang tidak direspect oleh harga dan membuatnya menjadi IFVG. Hal ini juga pernah terjadi antara 16-23 Mei 2024. Ekspektasi saya jika ditanya "kemana harga akan pergi?", jawaban saya adalah pada target terdekatnya. Setelah itu, jika memang Premium Array meresist harga dan harga membuat low baru, maka Sell Side Liquidity terdekat yang kemungkinan besar menjadi Target harga berikutnya. Target terakhir saya pada analisa ini adalah pada Sell Side Liquidity yang terletak paling bawah pada chart. Jika anda membuka timeframe Monthly, Sell Side Liquidity tersebut adalah Low dari FVG yang kemungkinan akan dijadikan sebagai level entry para institusi keuangan internasional. Dari sudut pandang Institusi Keuangan Internasional, salah satunya dari Credit Agricole, masih sama seperti yang saya sampaikan di ide sebelumnya, Emas masih jadi primadona karena Forex sedang tidak baik-baik saja menurut mereka (holding time mereka mungkin lebih dari 1 bulan karena dana yang mereka punya hingga jutaan dollar). Kesimpulan pada analisa kali ini adalah Ekspektasi penurunan harga XAUUSD hingga ke Target pertama di 2380 (50% of the range). Untuk penurunan lebih jauh, saya masih menunggu data yang muncul pada beberapa hari berikutnya. Terimakasih telah membaca ide yang saya publish, jika ada pertanyaan boleh langsung tanya di komentar dan semoga informasi ini dapat berguna untuk anda. 😁 Selamat trading dan semoga beruntung!