Nabi_Gunduz

Hello, I observe that the price moves itself upwards by forming triangles. While doing this movement, I noticed that after the breakouts occurred, it could not cross the upper descending trend line of the triangle in a downward direction again. When we look at the last triangle formation above, in order for this chain to continue, the price must first not fall below the triangle "D" level of 4273.11. For the continuation of the rise, a 4-hour candle must close above 4350.37... The upper descending trend line of the last triangle may be breached upwards. In fact, a 4-hour candle closing may occur above this trend line. These are not important. What really matters is the 4-hour candle close above 4350.37, which is the "C" level of the triangle. Then; Either possible withdrawals can be considered as buying opportunities, provided that a stop is placed below 4273.11, or a buying transaction can be entered after the 4-hour candle close above 4350.37. It should be noted that if the price falls below 4273.11, this chain will be broken. I WISH YOU GOOD EARNINGS...

If the TP-1 zone breaks downwards, the decline may continue...

Hello, The 4245 level, which is an important level in the daily time frame, was broken upwards 1 day after the FED's interest rate decision, and many formations produced BUY signals in different time frames. In fact, some Buy signals formed in small time frames such as 4 and 1 hour have already reached their targets... I tried to share them with you in an up-to-date manner under my last post. I will try to share with you the signals that may occur in small time periods within the next week, whenever I have the opportunity under this post. Now let's start examining our main chart; In our daily time chart, 3 bullish formations became active with the 4245 breakout and all three of them have different targets. After the upward break of the "CD" wave structure within the triangle, the formation with its main target at 4392 (TP-3) and its semi-target at 4368 (TP-1) levels is the first upward formation. The main target for Pattern123 formed by the "BCD" wave structure is 4604 (TP-4) and the semi-target of the formation is 4424 (TP-2). The main target of the "ABCD" triangle is 4740 (TP-5), and its semi-target is 4392, which is the TP3 level... It should not be forgotten that not every formation has a rule that will work. Because these formations have 2 stop levels and they are far away from the current level of the price. The stoploss level of the first formation must be below 3998, and the stoploss level of the 2nd and 3rd formations must be below 3886. A stop loss can also be placed with the daily candle closing below the FVG region, which I have highlighted in orange on the chart. In fact, a downward break of this region will create the possibility of a new downward wave... In this 4-hour chart, pattern123, which produced a buying signal according to the 12-depth wave structure seen in blue, has reached its targets, but pattern123, seen in green, has not yet reached the TP-1 level, which is the half-target of the formation. If this formation based on the 20-depth wave structure works, the targets to which the price can go are available on the chart. In this chart on the 4-hour time period, you see a Bullih Pennant (bullish pennant) formation. The target for the triangular part of the pennant has been reached. If the direct part of the pennant If he wants to target it, around 4500 could be the target... I will try to explain possible wave structure scenarios in the NOTE section below this analysis. HAPPY HOLIDAYS... For the price that is in the third wave of the main wave structure that occurs over long time periods such as annually, there is a possibility that the wave structure in the first two charts above will also occur. A downward wave that may occur before a new ATH occurs, and the scenario in this chart may come into play when the Red A level in the second chart is crossed downwards. If a new ATH occurs, there is a possibility that the scenario in the first chart will come into play. The third graph shows the internal structure of an impulse wave. A different bearish wave structure scenario could be as follows. The downward wave structure of a new ATH will differentiate the scenarios and the downward scenarios in these drawings will be canceled.

A very similar movement structure to the one in 2021 is occurring, including negative discordances. If the continuation is similar, after a partial rise, there may be a new wave of decline towards around 50 thousand in the coming months. Must be careful...!!!

Hello, Although this movement structure in the daily time frame, which is a very good example of the Wyckoff method, may possibly exhibit unsuccessful rises after the SOW breakout, the probability of the decline continuing is quite high. Therefore, one should not be deceived by possible upward movements. The Wyckof method has worked perfectly so far. Probably the continuation of the movement will proceed according to the method. HAPPY SUNDAY...

Hello, The 50-week Simple Moving Average, seen in blue on the chart, worked as support 3-4 times in the past, and serious increases were experienced after the reaction from this moving average. Since 2000, this moving average has been broken downwards once, and then there was a decrease to the 100-week Simple Moving Average, then SMA50 was tested again and SMA100 was broken downwards, and in that period, there was a 68% decrease after the downward break of SMA50. Now again, SMA50 has been broken downwards on a weekly basis. There is no rule that the same movement in the past will be repeated, but a downward chart formation that I have highlighted in orange on the chart also supports the possibility of such a decline. The target of the formation is 85931.8 and the SMA100 level is around 83318. In other words, there is a possibility that there may be a decrease to these levels in the first place. A weekly candle closing below SMA100 may cause the decline to deepen. Of course, it should not be forgotten that this possibility of decline may occur rapidly, but it may also occur lingering. In order for the price to overcome the downward pressure, it will be necessary to see a few weekly candle closings above SMA50. The area shown below in gray is a very important area. A downward break in this region could lead to a serious collapse. There is no such thing as impossible in financial markets. That's why you should always be cautious. I wish you success in your trading...

Hello, The details in our main chart are very important. I would like to list these in a few items... 1-) There was no daily candle closing above the upper level of the blue IFVG region, which is within the pink colored region. This IFVG region has an important mission. The last rise before the peak occurred with the downward break of the FVG region and created a decline possibility. In fact, after the region broke downwards, the price dropped by approximately $250. So, there is a possibility that this latest rise could be a re-test for the IFVG zone in question. In other words, the possibility of a new downward wave after the region is tested should be taken into consideration. 2-) The price selling at the alt level in the Order Block (ORDER BLOCK), seen in orange above, indicates that orders in this region may have been activated. 3-)The range I have indicated with 2 green lines on the chart is the last upward FVG in the weekly time period, and a weekly candle closing below this region may cause the price to drop seriously. The last bottom level in the same place has a special importance and I will explain it with the graph below, which will indicate the possibility of a different formation. 4-) It should also be noted that the price may consolidate for a while between the 2 orange zones on the chart. Now let's come to the importance of the last low level... As can be seen in the chart, if a new downward wave occurs according to the 12 and 20 depth wave structure and if this wave forms LL without LH, a 123 pattern formation will be formed, so there will be a possibility that the price will fall to at least the 3708-3640 region with the daily candle closing below the last bottom level. In such a case, the decline may even deepen and fall to 3529 or 3392 levels. (LH=A higher low than the previous low. - LL=A lower low than the previous low.) Let me explain this situation to you from a different perspective, with 2 Harmonic Formation possibilities: If the price continues to decline (LL), a BAT harmonic formation may come into play as seen in this chart; It may also make a failed bottom (LH) and turn into a BUTTERFLY Harmonic Pattern, as seen in this chart... Please consider these 2 graphs as if I were just playing the devil's advocate. So please don't think that it will happen like this. When we examine this chart in the 4-hour period, there is a SELL signal that is stuck at the signal level of the previous bearish formation but was formed according to the last low-depth wave structure. It should be noted that since the wave depth is low, the reliability of this structure will also be low. I would like to end my analysis this weekend by sharing as a footnote a harmonic formation in the 4-hour period, which also indicates the possibility of a decline. NOTE: Harmonic formations are not formations that can be trusted alone. It must be supported by different technical analyses. I wish you all a HAPPY SUNDAY...

Hello, I would like to start by briefly touching on the monthly closing review that I was unable to make last weekend. For the first time this year, the price closed below and opened below the monthly pivot level of the new month. This is an issue that should be given great importance. As can be seen in our main chart, the monthly pivot level for November is 4067.65, and as long as the price remains below this level, or in other words, unless there is a weekly candle closing above the monthly pivot level, the possibility of decline will continue. As a matter of fact, during the first week of November, the price moved below the monthly pivot level and closed the week below the monthly pivot level. On the other hand, the weekly pivot level for next week is 3986.65. Since the last closed daily candle was above this level, it would not be technically correct to say that the price moving under the monthly pivot will continue in a downward direction without seeing a daily candle close below 3986.65. If a daily candle closes under the weekly pivot in the new week, we can think that a new downward wave may occur since the price is also under the monthly pivot. Now let's analyze what may happen next week with the formations in daily and 4-hour time frames... In this chart on the daily time frame, you see the FVG zones. A daily candle closing on the FVG zone, seen in pink with the range of 4043.73-4019.60, may turn this zone into a support zone and cause the price to rise towards the next FVG/IFVG zones. The FVG region seen in green on the chart is an FVG region in the weekly time frame and we may be talking about completely different things after the weekly candle closing under this region. Because the region is the last upward FVG region on a weekly basis and its downward break may deepen the decline. Just like the last rise in the pink zone above on the chart, the decline deepened after the blue zone, which is the ifvg zone, broke downward on a daily basis, this time there will be a possibility of a similar situation on a weekly basis... In this chart, which is also in the daily time frame, there is a downward formation that has produced a signal and reached the TP1 level, and two upward formations that have not yet formed a signal. In order for bullish formations to generate signals, it is necessary to see a daily candle close above 4046. Since an upward break of this level will fulfill the upward break condition of the FVG region in the previous chart, there is a high probability that the price will rise after such a break... In this chart, which is in the 4-hour period, the price reached the TP1 level after the downward formation seen in red produced a signal, and the buying signal was formed after the upward formation seen in pink was formed and this formation reached the TP1 level. As I mentioned before, when the formations start to return from TP1 levels before reaching their main targets, it indicates that the price is indecisive or the price may consolidate... These are the periods when those who do not perform correct risk and margin management suffer the most. CONCLUSION: There is no clarity that I can say with peace of mind that the price can go in this direction. I hope you all have a nice weekend...

Hello, In my analysis this weekend, I want to start with small time frames, which I have not done much before. However, it should not be forgotten that formations formed in time periods such as half an hour or 1 hour are not very reliable. Our main chart is on the 1 hour time frame. The formation you see with the gray zigzag on the chart is a formation known as 123. The formation, which produced a sell signal with a 1-hour candle closing below 4065.630, seen in light red, returned before reaching its targets as a result of the price rising due to the US CPI data announced on Friday being lower than expected, but since the stop level of the formation is 4154.790 and the price is still below the stop level, there is still a possibility that it can turn around and reach its targets. On the same chart, there are 2 more formations formed in the 30-minute period, seen in lilac color and pink color. A 30-minute candle closing above 4117.446 may cause the price to go to 4147.334, while a 30-minute candle closing below 4101.460 may cause the price to go to 4074 and 4063. If the last downward wave, which made a downward market break on this 4-hour chart, has completed its decline, there will be a possibility of an Optmal Trade Enytry (OTE) formation with an upward break of the 4-hour FVG region seen in pink color on the chart. In such a case, the possibility that the price may rise to the yellow range on the chart and face sales from this region can be evaluated. In this chart, which is also on the 4-hour time period, a reverse pennant formation is seen when the internal wave structures are taken into account. In order for the formation to generate a signal, it is necessary to see a 4-hour candle closing below 4011. In the chart formations in another 4-hour period, there are formations that produced signals in both directions. If you pay attention, whenever such double-sided signals occur, we see that the price makes unbalanced movements. This would be a harbinger of possible consolidation... In this 4-hour chart, you see the FVG regions in different time periods. After the neckline of the double top formation was broken downwards, we see that the price fell to the upper level of the weekly FVG region and received a reaction from this region. Therefore, this region needs to be monitored carefully to ensure the continuation of the decline. I did not indicate it in the charts, but after the market breakout, the consolidated price consolidated between last week's weekly L3 and L4 levels. Let me mention this as a footnote... The most important areas to pay attention to in this daily chart are the pink FVG region and the green IFVG region. Since the downward break of the green zone means the downward break of the last uptrend FVG zone, the zone turned into IFVG and acted as a resistance zone. The price may test this area and decline again. In order for the price to rise again, it must close a daily candle above this region. Not only this, but also a daily candle close above the pink zone, which is the last decline FVG, is required for the rise... Finally, as can be seen in this weekly chart, in order for those who invest in physical gold to predict where the price may go in the long term, there will be a possibility that the price may go up to 5450 after weekly candle closings begin to occur above the peak. But it's too early to talk about these... Daily PIVOT for Monday: 4099.92 Weekly PIVOT for next week: 4165.81 HAPPY SUNDAY...

There is a possibility that the price, which moves at the 50-week Simple Moving Average limit, where it has supported itself many times in the past, may continue to decline seriously when it breaks this moving average downwards. Because in the past, when this moving average was broken downwards, there was a decrease of 67.84%. (The area seen in yellow on the Sol side.) Of course, serious increases occurred every time the same moving average received support and returned. Let's see if he can get support and rise this time.