JRobs88

Good morning and happy NFP Friday. Exciting PA awaits us all I hope. We have been consolidating price in a tight range all week after smashing through the 3 year previous resistance at $2075. We could get some violent moves today to the upside or downside depending on how much actual data deviates from the expectations. Be cautious today and good luck. (Someone informed me my previous idea had an 8 chart layout, I made this new idea to hopefully fix that)

Good morning and happy NFP Friday. Exciting PA awaits us all I hope. We have been consolidating price in a tight range all week after smashing through the 3 year previous resistance at $2075. We could get some violent moves today to the upside or downside depending on how much actual data deviates from the expectations. Be cautious today and good luck.

Treasury yields fell after US data last week suggested the CBs are done raising rates and the USA looks to be able to avoid a recession. That gave a nice boost for gold. Now treasury yields are starting to come back up on Saturday. 4.40 may have been the bottom for the 10yr yield signaling a bearish call for gold. We will have to wait and see how PA goes Monday. But I expect a drop to start the week. This could see a bear trend start going into the holidays as risk is still on in the markets.

War fears have been subsiding in recent sessions. Along with a hawkish Fed and other central bankers still focused on fighting inflation. Market thinks rates are at the peak across the world and are expecting cuts soon. The war may be escalating shortly with recent comments from Iran and Hezbolah. This should keep gold supported above $1980 into the weekend.

Market expects a skip with a hawkish speech. Saying they are “data dependent and yada yada ya” like they e have heard last 3 meetings. I expect a large spike in gold. Followed by a downward trend towards 1965 zone.

Gold has weakened on both the smaller scale Israel Hamas war and we are going into the November Fed meeting today. A pause is widely expected from almost every analyst who has an opinion on the matter. Even still a pause is still bad for gold prices as they jumped mostly on the ME conflict fears that have been subsiding in recent sessions.

Gold faded off the 2000 zone on Tuesday which was as much expected since Israel ground invasion is much slower and more precise than previously expected. I expect gold will continue this down trend in the following weeks as the war solidifies as a slow manhunting mission, rather than the all out bombardment and tank invasion which was previously predicted. The war is focused at least on Israel’s side as minimizing the civilian deaths. I expect this will continue for at least the next week. But caution is needed as any escalation by hezbolah to the north or Iran directly will push gold prices back over 2000.

Gold dropped Monday on account of Israel ground offensive being much smaller and more precise than investors had thought on Friday. I expect we will continue this trend unless the war escalates in any way with Iran. Caution ⚠️

Israel Hamas war has escalated. Israel has started its ground offensive but it is much smaller and more focused than first thought. If the war continues this way and doesn’t expand into a broad ME conflict. Gold should decline towards 1970 area.

Gold still bullish until war situation changes. Expect gold above 2000 levels shortly as Iran is now wanting to become more and more involved. Hamas leaving Israel almost guarantees a wider spreading conflict in the Middle East. Gold will continue to see support. If conflict spreads and lasts deep into 2024, the fed could cut rates at the same time propelling gold to new ATHs.As expected gold pushed over the 2000 mark shortly after this post. The Israel hamas war has taken a new turn for the worst. Iran is increasing involvement and Israel is finally moving into the ground offensive, albeit slowly. Safe haven inflows have skyrocketed into the weekend. Market expecting more bad news going into next week.