David_Thompson_9

Daily chart: Yesterday's close was bearish, and the price failed to fully retrace to the 10-day moving average support. According to the usual trend, today should have relied on the 5-day moving average to retest yesterday's high. However, the actual market performance was that it went lower first, and broke through yesterday's low and the 5-day moving average. This price action suggests that today's market will likely continue its consolidation and correction pattern, with the market perhaps awaiting guidance from tomorrow's non-farm payroll data. Currently, attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize above the 10-day moving average at the 4400 level. The recent fluctuation range may shift from the previous 4300-4400 to 4400-4500. 4-hour chart: The current technical structure shows a range-bound consolidation pattern, with the 10-day moving average and the middle band acting as resistance around 4450, while the 66-day moving average provides support around 4416. In the short term, the focus should be on the price action and price movements within this range. Hourly chart: The Asian market experienced a "smokescreen" – initially closing positive and breaking through the hourly middle band, seemingly poised for an upward move, but was then pushed back down by a large negative candle and is now under pressure below the middle band again. The Asian market's focus on the 5-day moving average support at 4440 (later moved down to 4432) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level failed to hold, and the price further declined to 4416 before rebounding. From the perspective of the channel pattern, the upper resistance level has shifted down to 4448-49, while the lower support level has shifted down to near 4400. The price is currently trading within this channel. It is worth noting that the short-term MACD has gradually shifted from yesterday's top divergence to a bottom divergence, which means that a technical rebound is likely to occur during the price decline. Overall, the market tends to seek an upward breakout opportunity after completing the current downward trend. XAUUSD GOLDG2026 XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

Although gold prices have not yet broken through the key resistance level of 4,500, the overall trend is clear, and the current trend is showing an overall upward fluctuation. The key focus for future price movements will be on whether the resistance levels of 4500 and 4550 are broken. Once these levels are breached, the bulls will likely begin a new round of one-sided upward movement. Previously, it was predicted on Wednesday that gold would likely maintain a volatile pattern before and after the release of the ADP data, and the actual trend did indeed meet expectations, showing a volatile upward trend. Gold prices fluctuated widely between 4422 and 4470 that day, and new changes appeared in the short-term technical pattern: 4422 formed a short-term bottom, and 4440 formed a double bottom support structure. Therefore, the low point of the recent upward movement has shifted from the previous double bottom at 4400 to a double bottom at 4440, showing a significant upward trend in the bottom. From a long-term technical perspective, the bullish trend remains strong on the daily and 4-hour charts, and the price did not break below the key support level of the Bollinger Middle Band during Wednesday's pullback. Based on the above technical structure, the recommended trading strategy for Thursday is to primarily buy on dips. Long Position Strategy Entry Range: 4400-4410 Stop Loss: 4390 Target: 4470, hold if it breaks through XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

The main event is here, so don't go away! The crucial ADP data is about to be released! This is a key signal that can instantly change the price of gold! The afterglow of yesterday's gold price surge hasn't dissipated yet. Will it continue to climb to 4550 today, or will it turn around and plummet? The answer was immediately revealed as soon as the ADP nonfarm payroll data was released! If you miss it, you might miss a whole wave of opportunities! First, a brief explanation of the key points: The ADP nonfarm payroll data reflects the state of the US job market. Good data may strengthen expectations of a Fed rate hike and push up the dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices; poor data, on the other hand, will raise expectations of a rate hike and give gold an upward trend! The market currently expects December ADP employment figures to be 45,000, compared to a previous reading of -32,000. If today's data falls short of expectations, gold prices will likely continue their upward trend from yesterday. We'll have to wait for the data to be released to see the results. \ Looking at the 4-hour chart for gold, after repeatedly testing the support level around 4310, the price of gold finally rebounded strongly, so a good bottoming pattern has been formed for the time being. However, considering that the non-farm payroll data will be released at the end of the week, it is possible that it will have a direct impact on the pattern and indicators. Momentum indicators show that the MACD has fallen below the signal line and is below the zero axis, indicating increased short-term downward pressure. If it breaks below key moving average support, it may test the dense support area around 4340-4330. Short-term trading advice is to focus on the strength of the upward momentum and look for key levels to short. Overall, today's short-term trading strategy for gold, according to David, is to primarily buy on dips and secondarily sell on rallies. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 4500-4510, and the key support level is 4430-4440. XAUUSD GOLD1! XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSDThe market has perfectly matched my analysis, and all members should continue to hold their long positions.

The short-term trend shows significant downward pressure. The previous price surge has resulted in a large accumulation of profits, and the market is likely to see a technical correction. Especially during the first hour after the US market opens, which is an active period for global capital trading, the concentrated inflow and outflow of funds can easily trigger sharp price fluctuations. If the price breaks through to the upside at this key time window, the upward momentum has likely not yet been fully released, and there is still room for further upward movement. Based on the above analysis, the following trading strategy can be considered for the end of the trading day: If the price falls back to the 4470-4471 range, accompanied by stabilization signals such as shrinking trading volume, long positions can be established to capitalize on the opportunity for the market to continue its upward trend. If the price rises to the key resistance zone of 4499-4500 and shows signs of pressure such as weakening volume, a small short position can be initiated. However, strict stop-loss discipline must be followed to guard against a short squeeze after the price breaks through the resistance level. It should be emphasized that financial markets are highly random and uncertain. In practice, trading strategies should be dynamically optimized by combining real-time market dynamics with one's own risk appetite. If you have any questions about the transaction, please leave me a message. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

From a technical analysis perspective, the gold trend remains positive, with prices consistently moving in a clear upward pattern where both highs and lows move higher, making it difficult for aggressive bearish views to gain sufficient grounds. As long as this upward structure remains intact, shorting gold aggressively is by no means a wise move. Traders should wait for a clear bearish signal before considering establishing a short position. Although the market is currently overbought, this alone is not enough to justify a sell-off. Regarding support levels, the $4350-$4380 range should be closely watched. This area served as a strong resistance level last October, and gold prices did not successfully break through it until December. At the beginning of this year, gold prices briefly fell below this range, but quickly recovered. Therefore, this range should become a strong support area during subsequent pullbacks. However, if gold prices continue to fall below this range, the bulls will be in a passive position, which may trigger a deeper pullback. The next important support level will be around $4,250. Once this price level is breached, gold prices will face no significant support before falling to the $4,000 range. Regarding resistance levels, $4,500 remains a key level. This price level is not only a psychologically significant round number, but also, judging from the market performance on December 29th last year, gold prices experienced a sharp drop after reaching this level, indicating that there is still a considerable amount of selling pressure above this position. XAUUSD GOLD1! XAUUSD GOLDG2026

From a technical perspective, gold prices rebounded to the 4450 level, but are now encountering resistance at a key level. On the daily chart, this position is close to the trendline of the previous highs, forming a strong resistance zone. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) has turned downwards in the overbought zone, releasing a short-term overbought pullback signal. Although the MACD bullish momentum bars are running above the zero axis, they have shown a converging trend, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is weakening. If gold prices fail to break through and hold above the key resistance level of 4450, a pullback is highly likely. Initial support can be seen at the 4420 consolidation level. If this level is broken, the price will likely test the psychological support level of 4400. Aggressive traders can establish short positions in the 4450-55 range, but this should only be attempted once. Note that the hourly chart moving average system is still in a bullish alignment, and if the price strongly breaks through 4470, be wary of a possible continuation of the short-term bullish trend. Overall, the plan has a reasonable risk-reward ratio and is in line with the technical expectation of downward pressure in the resistance zone. It is recommended to execute the plan with a small position and closely monitor the potential impact of changes in market sentiment on volatility. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSDThe trend perfectly matched expectations, and a profit of 25 points was secured. In gold trading, one must be decisive and quick to seize opportunities. In terms of operation, one should not be hesitant or indecisive.

Pay attention to the resistance level in the 4435-40 range. Be cautious about going long near this level, as it may fall back if it doesn't break through. A successful breakout would target the 4475 resistance level, and a strong surge would directly aim for 4500. Watch for support at 4410-4400; if it holds, go long; if it breaks, watch for strong support at 4335 XAUUSD GOLDG2026 XAUUSD

Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, market risk aversion surged, causing gold prices to open higher and continue rising on Monday, perfectly aligning with previous assessments. As of now, gold prices have successfully broken through the $4,420 mark, achieving an unexpected surge. From a technical perspective, the repeated price fluctuations and pullbacks in the early stages were essentially a consolidation and shakeout process, intended to digest profit-taking pressure and lay a solid foundation for further upward movement in the future. From a fundamental perspective, multiple positive factors are converging, solidifying the long-term upward trend: the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts is driving safe-haven demand; the accelerated pace of global central banks increasing their gold holdings is providing support for allocation-oriented buying; miners' hoarding and reluctance to sell are further tightening supply; coupled with rising expectations of easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, multiple factors are jointly driving the upward momentum of gold. In terms of timing, a bullish approach is recommended for the first half of the week, while caution is advised in the second half due to the risk of increased volatility resulting from the release of key economic data. After breaking through the key resistance level of 4400, the market is consolidating at a high level today, which is a typical strong correction pattern of time trading for space. Support levels to watch are 4380, 4365, and 4275. The trading strategy should focus on buying on dips. Resistance levels to watch are 4440 and 4450. If this range is broken, gold prices could potentially challenge the 4500 level. XAUUSD GOLDG2026 XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

Spot gold prices rose and then fell back before stabilizing, trading around the core range of $4,400 per ounce during the North American session. On the daily chart, after the price surged to a high of $4,549.69 per ounce, it triggered a margin-driven deleveraging fluctuation, quickly retreating to the key support level of $4,300.00 per ounce where it found support. Currently, it has entered a rebalancing phase of "volatility digestion + waiting for catalysts". I. Fundamentals: Core Support Remains Unchanged; Short-Term Fluctuations Originate from Microstructure The medium- to long-term pricing anchor for spot gold remains focused on the dual themes of real interest rates and safe-haven demand, with solid fundamental support: 1. Expectations of declining real interest rates dominate allocation demand: Market pricing in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is driving the combination of nominal interest rates and inflation expectations towards lowering the central level of real interest rates. As a typical non-interest-bearing asset, the declining cost of holding gold will enhance its attractiveness, especially during periods of rising macroeconomic uncertainty, when gold's "universal collateral for risk hedging" attribute makes it more attractive to investors. 2. Geopolitical risk premium continues to support the economy: The repeated escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased tail risks, driving funds to migrate to assets with high liquidity and strong safe-haven attributes. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, naturally benefits from this trend. It should be clarified that the recent pullback is due to amplified volatility caused by micro-structural factors, rather than a reversal of fundamental logic: the increase in margin requirements for precious metal contracts led to an increase in the capital required for leveraged funds, triggering concentrated reductions in positions and passive liquidation, resulting in a sharp drop in the form of "squeeze in the same direction". The typical characteristics of this type of fluctuation are fast pace and emotion-driven. Unless there is a systemic upward revision of macroeconomic expectations, such as a significant increase in real interest rates, prices are likely to be repriced at key support levels. The next key catalyst comes from the policy expectation calibration of the Fed meeting minutes: if the expectation of an easing path is strengthened, the decline in dollar interest rates will provide upward momentum for gold; if the emphasis is on inflation stickiness and policy patience, gold may continue to fluctuate at high levels to digest crowded positions. II. Technical Analysis: Key Support Remains Effective, Bullish/Bearish Dividing Line Shifts Upward. On the daily chart, gold has shown a clear upward trend and a step-like upward pattern since November, with each pullback finding support in the previous high-volume trading area. After encountering resistance at $4,549.69/oz, the price experienced a wide pullback, hitting a low of $4,300.00/oz before quickly recovering some of the losses. This confirms that the price level is not only a psychological barrier but also a core defensive position for structural bulls. The current price has stabilized above $4,360/ounce, meaning that the short-term bullish/bearish dividing line has shifted to this area: stabilizing above this level would constitute a continuation of the trend after a period of consolidation at higher levels; a break below this level could trigger a "second deleveraging" risk, returning the price to a wide-range oscillation pattern. The indicators suggest a consolidation within a strong trend: the MACD indicator DIFF is 79.89, DEA is 77.12, and the MACD histogram is 5.54, all of which are in the bullish zone above the zero axis. The convergence of the histogram suggests that the upward momentum is cooling down at a high level, but it is not a trend reversal signal; the RSI (14) has fallen back to 59.33, and the overbought pressure has been released, clearing the way for the continuation of the trend. Key levels to watch: The upside resistance is concentrated in the $4500-$4549.69/oz resistance zone. A breakout and hold above this level with significant volume could signal a return to accelerated growth. Downside support is initially seen at $4360/oz, followed by the key support level of $4300.00/oz. A breach of this level would indicate a deep pullback and correction in the daily chart structure. III. Bullish and Bearish Outlook: Focusing on Core Variables and Seizing Structural Opportunities Bullish Logic: If the US dollar interest rate continues to decline and real interest rates continue to fall, coupled with the maintenance of geopolitical risk premiums, gold will continue its structural characteristics of "controllable pullbacks and buying on dips". From a technical perspective, as long as the support at $4360/oz is effectively confirmed, the upside will retest $4500/oz, and then challenge the previous high of $4549.69/oz. A break above this level would open up further upside potential. The release of overbought pressure from the RSI also makes the trend more likely to continue. Short-selling risks: ① The restructuring of policy expectations leads to a sustained upward revision of real interest rates, weakening the advantage of gold as a non-yielding asset, and the market may shift from a trending market to a long-term consolidation; ② Liquidity contraction or margin adjustments trigger a second round of passive selling, and a breach of $4,300.00/ounce will trigger a larger-scale pullback and increased volatility. Conclusion: Gold is currently in a key consolidation zone around $4,400/oz. In the short term, the key focus is on the effectiveness of the $4,360/oz support level and the strength of any upward correction. In the medium term, the key focus is on whether the resonance logic between real interest rates and safe-haven premiums will continue. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD

In the short term, after gold broke below the key level of 4470, the short-term trend has switched from bullish to bearish, and the downside target of 4450-4430 has been successfully achieved. The strategy of selling on rallies is in line with the market rhythm. Gold prices plummeted by nearly 250 points intraday, with the current 4300 level becoming a key point of contention. From a technical perspective, although the price has broken through the 4380-4370 support level, it is still within an upward channel on the daily chart. This pullback is essentially an overbought correction triggered by a top divergence, and only triggered a short-term trend reversal to bearish. The 4300 level and the middle band form a support level. If the level is broken, the next target for the correction could be 4250-4200. If the level holds, the correction is likely nearing its end. From a fundamental perspective, the expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, which is still beneficial to the bulls in the medium to long term. Therefore, it is not recommended to short at the 4300 level. Instead, it can be regarded as an inflection point for medium- to long-term bullish positions. It is suggested to establish a base position in the 4300-4310 range. The subsequent consolidation may take time, and a sudden rebound is unlikely. Trading Strategy: Establish long positions within the 4320-4325 range, with a stop-loss set below 4300. Hold positions for the medium to long term and wait for further gains. For short-term trading, adopt a "primarily long, secondarily short" swing trading strategy. For long positions in the 4320-4325 range, the initial target is 4360 (reduce position), then 4380-4400. If the price stabilizes above 4400, further targets are 4430-4450-4470. Key conclusion: The major correction may have ended, and the main focus is on recovering the 4300 level. Seize the medium- to long-term bullish opportunities by following the trend.