Technical analysis by LiamTradingFX about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (12/19/2025)

XAUUSD (H1) – Awaiting confirmation to exit trendline Buy 4304, Sell 4346 | Gold compresses range before US data Strategy Summary Gold is compressing within a sideways range and gradually narrowing (typical "range compression before breakout"). The larger frame still leans towards long-term Buy, but in the short term, I prioritize trading according to trendline + support/resistance zones, with a profit target of about 10 points. The key point today is to wait for confirmation to exit the trendline to avoid entering orders amidst noise. Important technical levels on the chart Support / Buy test trendline: 4304 (trendline test area) Short-term resistance: 4328 "Strong Liquidity" zone above: around 4346 (likely to react) Distant target if breakout: 4374 Scenario 1 – BUY according to trendline (priority) ✅ Entry Buy: around 4304 SL: 4295 TP (reference): 4314 → 4324 → 4328 (can partially close after 10 points) Logic: 4304 is the "Buy test trendline" area – if the price tests and holds, the probability of bouncing back to test the resistance area 4328 is high. Scenario 2 – SELL at strong liquidity zone (scalp) ✅ Sell: around 4346 (Strong Liquidity zone) For SELL orders, the most reasonable TP is ~4338 (exact target ~10 points). SL should be placed above the area to avoid being swept when the price stretches (you can consider placing it one step above 4346). Logic: 4346 is close to a large liquidity/resistance zone – price hitting this area often reacts, suitable for scalping by rhythm. "Confirmation" conditions to avoid noise Strong increase confirmation: price breaks and holds above the resistance area (preferably clear H1 candle close) → then the target expands to 4374. If the trendline is lost & breaks 4295: stop BUY, avoid stubbornness during news phases. Today's fundamental context (direct impact on XAUUSD) DXY rises as the market is cautious ahead of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index → may exert short-term pressure on gold. However, November CPI decline increases expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates soon → medium-term is a supportive factor for gold. CME FedWatch: probability of holding rates steady in January ~73.3%, probability of a 25bps cut ~26.6% → the market remains very sensitive to data, easy to "sweep both ends". Which scenario are you leaning towards: pullback to 4304 to buy, or up to 4346 to sell reaction?