Technical analysis by Steven-GoldTrading about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (12/18/2025)

XAUUSD H1 – Steven | Accumulation waiting for structural breakout Watch for SELL adjustment before further increase Quick context Currently, gold is accumulating very tightly, with about 6 M30 candles almost standing still. Weak liquidity makes trading more difficult because the pattern is unclear and easily swept on both ends. With the current structure, I lean towards a corrective decline first, then there is an opportunity for further increase. Technical perspective according to the chart On the chart, there are 3 important areas to closely monitor: Strong Liquidity above is a strong supply and resistance area, where price touching it can easily have a reaction. The area around 4.310 is an important reaction area, which can create a short rebound. The area below around 4.278 is the sell liquidity area, which is the minimum adjustment target if the price breaks down. The price is close to the recent peak area and shows signs of liquidity being stuck, so the priority is to wait for a reaction before entering a trade, not to predict in advance. Today's trading plan Scenario A prioritizes SELL when the price reacts to the upper area The idea is to watch for a sell on the corrective move before further increase Reaction area to observe 4.310 Sell when the price reacts around 4.322 Minimum target 4.278 Activation condition is that there must be a clear signal at the area such as a pullback, false break, or strong rejection candle. Avoid chasing sell when the price is in the middle of the accumulation area. Scenario B if it breaks the peak, switch to BUY according to momentum If the price clearly breaks the peak and holds, I will move to a shorter frame to find a buy point according to the trend. Note that false breakouts during weak liquidity phases occur very often, so confirmation is needed instead of FOMO. USD context and news USD is struggling to attract buying power due to expectations that the Fed tends to ease. However, the market is also hesitant to make big bets before the US CPI report, so gold is likely to fall into a waiting state for news and react strongly when there is a catalyst. The recent drop in price below the 200-day SMA also makes buyers more cautious, increasing the likelihood of corrective moves before continuation. Which scenario do you lean towards more, falling to 4.278 then bouncing or breaking the peak immediately? Comment so I can update more according to the price reaction at 4.310 to 4.322.