Technical analysis by LiamTradingFX about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (12/18/2025)

XAUUSD (H1) – Gold Trading Plan 12/18 Wait for CPI to "choose direction" | Break 4355 to Buy, break trendline to Sell Strategy Summary (understand the plan in 10 seconds) Before the US CPI data, Gold is likely to hold its price within a range and will only truly "make a big move" when there is confirmation of a structural break. Currently, the price is still following the upward channel, but volume is clearly decreasing → prioritize trading in a break-confirm style, avoid FOMO. Buy is only valid when surpassing the strong resistance 4355 Short-term sell if the upward trendline breaks Medium-term sell if the bottom 4306 breaks Key Levels (important levels according to the chart) Strong resistance: 4355 (the "door" area for buyers to confirm) Sell scalping zone: 4354–4355 (short-term reaction area) Sell zone liquidity: 4392 (liquidity sell area above) Structural level / important bottom: 4306 (breaking opens the medium-term sell scenario) FVG / deep liquidity attraction zone: 4248 (target if the market sells off strongly) Scenario 1: Price Increase (only activated when breaking 4355) Confirmation condition: Price breaks and holds above 4355 (preferably with a clear H1 candle close). ✅ Buy entry: 4348 SL: 4340 TP1: 4355–4360 TP2: 4392 (sell zone liquidity) Logic: When volume decreases, false breakouts are very likely. Therefore, only buy when the price surpasses the "directional" resistance area 4355. Scenario 2: Short-term Price Decrease (prioritize if the upward trendline breaks) Confirmation condition: Break the lower trendline of the upward channel → sell following the break rhythm. After breaking, prioritize selling on a retest back to the trendline/near resistance (avoid chasing the bottom). The first target is usually the liquidity area below around 4306. Logic: The trendline is the "backbone" of the upward rhythm. Losing the trendline in the context of CPI + weakening volume → the market is likely to have a quick sell-off to sweep liquidity. Scenario 3: Medium-term Price Decrease (when breaking the bottom 4306) Confirmation condition: Price clearly breaks 4306. ✅ At that point, prioritize medium-term selling according to the structure. Expected TP: expand down to deeper support areas, with the FVG 4248 zone being a notable attraction point. News Context (why "wait for confirmation" today) The market is waiting for US CPI – inflation data that could change expectations about the Fed's rate cut path, thereby directly impacting the USD and determining the next directional move of XAUUSD. Therefore, today prioritize: wait for a range break + tight risk management. Risk Management Maximum risk per order 1–2%. If SL is hit: stop, wait for re-confirmation (don't revenge trade). This article shares a perspective and trading plan