Technical analysis by ICHIMOKUontheNILE about Symbol PAXG on 11/15/2025

Imagine the coming week… Everything is moving kind of “normal” 😴… until we hit the big event: 👉 WEDNESDAY NIGHT — FOMC MINUTES. 🎭 SCENE ONE: BEFORE THE STORM ------------------------------ Tuesday night / Wednesday morning: Gold is sitting just above 4,000… Not mooning 🚀, not crashing 💥… The whole market feels there’s a “verbal exam” coming from the Fed, but nobody knows the question yet 😅. • Big funds (Smart Money): – Some are lightly positioned, – Others are flat on the sidelines, – Nobody wants to go full degen size before reading the minutes 🙃. • On your XAUMO chart: – Below you: **Uploading Zone** around 4,00x – 4,05x – Above you: **Offloading Zone** around 4,18x – 4,21x – Price is stuck in between… exactly in the “middle of the sofa” 🛋️. Retail traders on social media: – “Gold is going 4,300 EASY bro” 🤡 – “No, it’s going back to 3,900, you’re all doomed” 😱 But the one who will actually settle this fight is NOT them… it’s the Fed 😏. Time passes… we arrive at Wednesday: 🎬 SCENE TWO: THE DOOR OPENS — MINUTES DROPPED ---------------------------------------------- Around 9:00 p.m. Cairo time… News screen flashes: **FOMC MINUTES RELEASED** 📜. In one second: • 10-year Treasury yields move hard: – Either they drop fast, – Or they rip up. • Dollar index (DXY): – Either breaks the day’s low, – Or does a nice little spike-up flex 💪. And here the **gold** story starts: 1️⃣ If the minutes are **DOVISH** (Fed more scared of weak growth than of inflation): – Yields start dropping, – Dollar cools down and pulls back, – Stocks grab some air and try to rally. Gold? → First few seconds: pure noise… wick games 🎯. Then: • Big green candle pops on the chart, • Volume jumps, • Delta turns positive (people smashing the Ask like there’s a sale on gold 😂). On the XAUMO map: – 4,04x – 4,06x becomes **real Uploading**, – A bullish MegaBar launches from there and drags us to mid-range 4,12x – 4,14x, – A few sessions later we might re-test 4,18x – 4,20x again. The story: “Markets hear: Fed won’t murder the economy (yet) 🥲. So some money sneaks out of the dollar and high yields… and quietly slides into gold.” 2️⃣ If the minutes are **HAWKISH** (Fed still frowning at inflation 😠): – Yields rise or at least refuse to fall, – Dollar tightens up and pushes higher, – Equities get stressed. Gold? → Maybe a spike up/down in the first minute (stop hunt classic 😏), but then: • Wider red candles, • Negative delta (aggressive selling at Bid), • Price abandons the upper edge of the range and walks down. On XAUMO: – 4,18x – 4,21x is confirmed as a **true Offloading Zone**: • Bearish Kill Bars at the top, • High RVOL but move is DOWN. – Market starts probing 4,10x – 4,08x… and if pressure keeps going, it tests 4,02x – 4,00x. Story here: “Wall Street hears: no pampering, kids. Rates stay high until inflation taps out 💪. So anyone holding gold just as a ‘rate hedge’ starts trimming. Diamond hands suddenly become paper hands 😬.” 🎯 SCENE THREE: AFTER THE SMOKE — RESETTING THE STAGE ----------------------------------------------------- Whether the minutes are dovish or hawkish… The important part is NOT the first 5 minutes of drama… It’s **what happens after the first wave**: • If DOVISH: – Does gold keep pushing after the spike? → Does it build candles ABOVE 4,12x – 4,14x and hold? If YES → market believed the story and we have **Uploading from below** ✅. • If HAWKISH: – Does every little bounce get sold? → Every time we approach 4,16x – 4,18x, a big seller shows up? If YES → that’s **real Offloading above**, and odds of visiting 4,00x get higher 🚨. Now your turn: As a XAUMO analyst you don’t care about the headline alone… You care about: – Where did yields go? – What did DXY actually do? – At which zone did gold flip: **Uploading** or **Offloading**? 📌 TWO-LINE TL;DR ----------------- Wednesday is not “just another news release”… It’s the day the Fed tells the market: “Am I here to relax you… or keep squeezing you?” 😈 And gold answers instantly: – If relaxed → puts on the safe-haven halo and rallies from accumulation zones 👼. – If squeezed → takes off the halo and drops from distribution zones, hunting for new buyers below 😏. Your real job is NOT to predict the script… Your job is **to read the play correctly**: – Who is the strong buyer? – Who is the heavy seller? – And does the curtain fall on a NEW LOW or a NEW HIGH? All of this is **EDUCATIONAL ONLY** 📘 — not a buy/sell signal, and not a replacement for your own risk plan.