Technical analysis by HalukTATAR about Symbol BTC on 10/26/2025

The FED is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points this week — but that’s not the real story. The market has already priced that in. If they go with a 25 bps cut instead, things could get messy. What truly matters is the tone for December and beyond. If there’s a cut, markets will likely breathe a sigh of relief, but if the Fed doesn’t hint at further easing, expect volatility in equities. Also, keep an eye on the European Central Bank’s upcoming statement, which could add another layer of uncertainty. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may signal a rate hike at its October 30–31, 2025 meeting. The current policy rate stands at 0.5%, while inflation has climbed to 2.7%, nearing the 2% target. Rising wages support the case for tightening, though U.S. tariffs and global slowdown risks, along with Prime Minister Takaichi’s calls for fiscal easing, add pressure. A 25 bps hike (≈60% probability) would align with Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent remarks that “inflation momentum is accelerating.” Hawkish members such as Takata describe this as a “window of opportunity” to normalize policy. If the BOJ holds rates steady, fiscal expansion under Takaichi’s administration could keep growth forecasts near 0.8%, but exports would likely weaken under U.S. tariff pressure. In that scenario, liquidity would rise, boosting risk appetite — and cryptocurrencies could benefit in the short term.