Technical analysis by BullBearInsights about Symbol TSLAX on 10/23/2025

1. Market Structure (1H & 15M) Tesla’s price structure is showing a clear short-term bullish shift after back-to-back CHoCH confirmations from the $415 zone, where buyers absorbed liquidity aggressively. The Break of Structure (BOS) on the 15-minute around $440–$445 confirms that smart money rotated back into long positions after a liquidity sweep of last week’s lows. On the 1-hour chart, TSLA is reclaiming momentum above its recent CHoCH zone near $420, building a stair-step structure toward the previous supply zone at $450–$455. The trendline drawn from the previous lower highs (extending from the $470s) still acts as a major trend barrier, meaning a clean break and hold above $450–$452 is the confirmation bulls need to signal a higher timeframe reversal. Smart money accumulation looks evident between $415–$425, where volume clusters align with the CHoCH reversal. Above that, liquidity resides at $455–$460, a potential magnet if momentum sustains through Friday. 2. Supply and Demand / Order Blocks * Demand Zone (High Probability Reaccumulation): $415–$425. This zone was defended twice and coincides with prior sell-side liquidity. * Immediate Support / Fair Value Gap Fill Area: $435–$440, likely to act as intraday springboard if retested during premarket dip. * Supply Zone / Sell-Side Liquidity: $450–$455. This aligns with the 1-hour bearish order block formed from the Oct. 17–18 breakdown. Expect a reaction near $450 — either a rejection for intraday pullback or a breakout continuation if bulls trap shorts above it. If price clears that level with strength, next supply sits around $462–$465. 3. Indicator Confluence * 9 EMA vs 21 EMA: Both EMAs have crossed to the upside on the 15-minute and are starting to fan out on the 1-hour, confirming a short-term bullish bias. * MACD: The histogram shows strong positive momentum with expanding bars on the 1-hour, but slight divergence on 15-minute as momentum cooled late in the session — suggesting a possible small pullback before continuation. * RSI: Hovering around 70 on the 1-hour, indicating overbought conditions but still within bullish control. On 15-minute, RSI has cooled off near 60, resetting for potential continuation. * Volume: Expansion noted during the breakout, confirming participation. Momentum remains positive unless volume fades on retest. 4. GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment According to the GEX chart, $450–$455 is the 2nd major call wall and highest positive gamma zone, while $420 remains the strongest PUT support for Friday (10/24). The HVL (High Volume Line) around $430 aligns perfectly with the mid-support of the structure. Dealer positioning remains net positive gamma, meaning we can expect controlled movement unless price breaches outside the $420–$455 zone. A sustained move above $450 would likely force dealers to hedge upward, fueling a gamma squeeze toward $460+. Conversely, if TSLA rejects and falls back below $440, expect volatility expansion downward toward the $420 PUT wall. Current IVR (6.1) and IVx (≈60) show low implied volatility, hinting that options are relatively cheap — favorable for directional plays. Call flow sits around 64%, reinforcing bullish sentiment for tomorrow’s session. 5. Trade Scenarios for Friday, Oct. 24 Bullish Setup 🟩 * Entry Zone: $443–$445 retest or reclaim above $450 * Target Levels: $455 → $462 → $470 (if squeeze triggers) * Stop-Loss: Below $438 (invalidate short-term structure) * Confirmation: Hold above 9EMA on 15-min with MACD histogram remaining green and RSI > 60 Bearish Setup 🟥 * Entry Zone: $450–$455 rejection zone * Target Levels: $440 → $430 → $420 * Stop-Loss: Above $457 (invalidate bearish rejection) * Confirmation: MACD red crossover + RSI divergence + 15-min CHoCH to downside 6. Closing Outlook for Oct. 24 (Friday) Tomorrow’s session could be decisive. If bulls defend $440–$445 early and reclaim $450 with conviction, it opens the door to a Friday gamma squeeze into $460+. But if momentum fades and $440 gives way, expect a controlled retrace back into the $425–$430 demand. Personally, I’m watching $450 as the battleground — it’s both a psychological level and a technical liquidity point tied to heavy options flow. Any strong break with volume could trigger dealer hedging upward. But failure to sustain above it might lead to a Friday fade, especially into the afternoon session when gamma neutralizes. 📈 Final Thought:
“TSLA is coiled between $440–$450 — and tomorrow, one side will get trapped. If bulls hold the floor, expect fireworks into $460+. If not, $425 retest is back on deck.”