Technical analysis by Alchemy Markets about Symbol PAXG on 10/22/2025

Gold’s surge to fresh highs is now unwinding into what looks like a textbook wave 4 correction. The move has traders panicking over desks — but beneath the noise, this is a repricing of real yields, not necessarily a structural top. Technical Lens: After a vertical wave 3 extension, spot gold has now pulled back toward the 23.6–38.2% retracement zone, a typical digestion phase before trend resumption. Structurally, the broader sequence still tracks as a 5-wave advance from the August breakout, implying this phase could be consolidation rather than reversal. Scenarios: If inflation undershoots expectations and real yields rise, gold could remain capped within this corrective band as investors rotate toward yield-bearing assets. If inflation proves sticky or the pace of disinflation slows, real yields compress again — an environment that continues to justify gold being “at these levels” or even pushing higher as the market re-prices duration risk. Catalysts: Upcoming US CPI inflation data, Treasury auctions, and real yield spreads (TIPS vs. nominal) will shape the next leg. Takeaway: This looks like wave 4 digestion — not capitulation. Unless inflation truly undershoots, gold’s macro foundation remains intact.