Technical analysis by THE_WINING_HUB about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (10/14/2025)

Gold is currently trading near 4106, where price action is showing early signs of exhaustion after a strong upward run. I anticipate a potential retracement toward the 4080–4060 zone as sellers attempt to regain short-term control. 🔹 Technical Outlook Entry Area: 4123 Resistance: 4180 (key supply zone) Support 1: 4090 Support 2 / Strong Support: 4060 Targets: 4080 → 4060 Bias: Bearish while below 4180 Price Structure: Gold is currently testing a major resistance area near 4100–4120, where multiple previous highs align with Fibonacci retracement and moving average confluence. The market has formed potential lower highs on the H1 and H4 charts, hinting at weakening bullish momentum. Key Technical Observations: RSI divergence is visible on lower timeframes, suggesting buying pressure is fading. MACD histogram is flattening, indicating momentum loss and possible bearish crossover. Price action has struggled to close firmly above 4106, showing strong rejection wicks from the resistance zone. A confirmed break below 4090 could trigger the next move down toward 4080, followed by 4060. Market Behavior: If gold sustains below 4125, intraday bias turns bearish. However, a breakout above 4132–4140 would invalidate the setup and shift focus back to bullish continuation. 🔸 Fundamental Analysis U.S. Dollar Strength Regains Traction: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has shown signs of recovery amid stronger Treasury yields, adding short-term pressure on gold. A firm dollar typically limits upside potential in non-yielding assets like gold. Profit-Taking After Recent Rally: After gold’s strong bullish leg in the previous sessions, traders may be booking profits near key resistance zones, fueling short-term pullbacks. Interest Rate & Fed Outlook: Markets are closely watching Federal Reserve remarks for clues about future rate adjustments. Any hawkish undertone or sticky inflation signals can strengthen the dollar and weigh on gold. Geopolitical Flows Cooling Temporarily: While gold has benefited from safe-haven demand, the recent stabilization in global risk sentiment and equities is reducing defensive inflows into precious metals — supporting a potential short-term correction. U.S. Fiscal Concerns in Focus: Although long-term fundamentals remain gold-positive (due to debt and inflation concerns), near-term sentiment could favor consolidation or a pullback before the next major move. ⚙️ Trading Plan Scenario 1 — Bearish Continuation: A clean break and close below 4090 could confirm downside momentum toward 4080, with extended targets near 4060. Scenario 2 — Invalidation: If price breaks and closes above 4180, the bearish setup would be invalidated and the market could resume its broader bullish trend. Risk Management: Place stops above 4180 to protect against false breakouts. Maintain a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio, scaling out partials near 4080.