Technical analysis by vagada about Symbol PAXG on 10/10/2025

Gold Daily – Holding Support, Eyes on the Next Leg Gold’s run from the 50MA support that started in the second half of August has been nothing short of spectacular. After such a sharp move, it’s natural to look for where price might pause or recharge. Based on historical price action and key Fibonacci levels, several zones stand out. The 0.5 Fib level at $4,096 acted as resistance on October 8, marking the local high of this move. Below, the green support line around $3,945 is now being tested, a zone that also aligns closely with the BBcenter, creating a confluence of potential support. So far, this level has held for two sessions, but confirmation will depend on today’s daily close, roughly 12 hours from now. With inflation concerns resurfacing and central banks showing renewed interest in gold reserves, the macro backdrop still favours strength in the long term. Many are calling for a top in gold after this explosive rally, but as history shows, tops are rarely that obvious. If this support zone, defined by the BBcenter and green line, manages to hold, price could push again toward $4,096, and possibly even extend to the projected “Next Move Beyond 161.8%” level around $4,446. Bias: Cautiously bullish, support cluster holding, watching daily close for confirmation of continuation. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.GOLD Daily – Green Line Holds, Momentum Returns The green support line held firm as price reclaimed the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and is now targeting the next resistance around 4446 $. Technical Overview Structure remains bullish short-term A daily close above 4446 $ would confirm a breakout and open the path toward 5000 $. Failing to hold above 4446$ would reintroduce downside risk toward the 0.5Fib level support near 4100 $ or 3900$. Macro Context The renewed rush for physical gold, with queues forming at bullion dealers, often signals a late-cycle sentiment peak rather than the start of a new wave. When retail investors rush to secure metal at record prices, it’s less about strategic hedging and more about FOMO driven demand, which historically appears near market tops. The **U.S. government shutdown** debate has amplified this sentiment. When fiscal policy credibility is questioned, the instinctive move is toward assets outside the system, gold being the oldest and most trusted of them. At the same time, slowing Treasury issuance and elevated real yields are creating a tug-of-war: institutional money trims paper exposure while retail flows into physical. Interpretation The macro backdrop supports sustained demand as confidence in traditional governance weakens. While short-term traders eye technical resistance at 4446 $, long-term participants see gold’s rise as a reflection of deeper structural unease, a mirror of declining trust, not just price momentum. Bias: Bullish while above 0.5 Fib. Watching the 4446 $ resistance for continuation confirmation.Gold Daily – Exhaustion at 4381$, Healthy Pullback in Progress Gold approached the 4446$ resistance and printed a new ATH at 4381$, before momentum began to fade. RSI has rolled over, and volume divergence confirms exhaustion after one of the strongest rallies since August. From a technical perspective, this rejection isn’t a top, it’s a reset. Gold often experiences sharp pullbacks, even within strong bull trends. A 10% retrace into the 3944$ support zone fits perfectly within a healthy, long-term structure. That level, the green support line, that has defined the trend since late summer. If price holds there, buyers could regain control and attempt another move toward 4446$. If not, the next key support sits around 3746$ (161.8% Fib) still within the larger uptrend channel. From a macro standpoint, this is what strength consolidation looks like: Physical demand remains high, fiscal uncertainty persists, and gold’s long-term bid as a trust hedge stays intact. Bias: Neutral-to-bullish, a cooling phase inside a secular uptrend. Watching $3944 for stabilization.