Technical analysis by WiseLeoTrading about Symbol PAXG on 10/7/2025

Gold reached another record high and is on its way to reach 4000 USD/ounce, driven by government instability around the world, such as the US government shutdown, the collapse of the French government after only 14 hours, while protests in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nepal, and now in Morocco. The US Senate failed to pass government funding yesterday with fewer than the required 60 votes. If the government postponement continues, it could threaten to fire over 750k federal workers and cost 0.1-0.2% of the US GDP for each week of postponement. Additionally, not only federal workers but also private workers face a bad situation when the hiring decision could be halted due to the interruption in consumption and the whole value chain. Meanwhile, the delay in releasing economic data such as NFP and Inflation could lead the Fed to make decisions based on old data that do not provide a clear picture of the current economic situation, especially the labor market, which is trending low now. If the Fed acts slowly, this could cause a recession or even stagflation if inflation keeps rising without statistics. Fed is expected to cut 0.5% further this year in this month's meeting and another in December. Regarding the market's reaction, we can see a spike in inflows to the gold ETF last week, with a total demand of 42.1 tons of gold, and it could be hiked further this week. Meanwhile, the COMEX also showed that the future net long position remained elevated at 806.35 tons Technically, XAUUSD is trading above both extending EMAs and an ascending channel. If XAUUSD stays below the resistance at 4000, the price may retest the support at 3900. Alternatively, falling below 3900 may fuel a retest of the channel‘s lower bound and EMA78.By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at ExnessThe gold continues to surge due to the political instability in France, with the collapse of the government only after 14 hours, marked by the resignation of the new PM. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown came to its 8th consecutive day with little information from the government. That's why markets continue to be concerned and find safe-haven assets like gold to avoid uncertainty surrounding the effect of the US economy without any update of essential data, which could affect the monetary policy, which could cause dire consequences for the economy. Meanwhile, Terther reports increasing its gold holding to back the XAUt—a gold tokenization that opens a new trading mechanism for investors backed by physical gold. The XAUt capitalization now reaches around 1 billion USD, with the potential to increase further. Technically, XAUUSD surpassed the Fibonacci Extension 161.8% at 4007 resistance and could increase further to test the Fibonacci Extension of 4216. Failure to close above 4007 will lead XAUUSD to retest the 3900 level. By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness