Technical analysis by grnntom about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (9/21/2025)

I’m expecting about a 1.84% drop on XAUUSD this week based on Elliott Wave and Fibonacci structure. First, I’ve identified that the market has already completed a full 5-wave impulsive move up. Wave 3 was the strongest leg, followed by a corrective Wave 4, and then a final push into Wave 5. At the top of Wave 5, we saw a liquidity sweep, where price grabbed the highs before reversing sharply — that’s usually a sign of exhaustion. After the sweep, price dropped into Wave A, confirming the start of a corrective phase. Now, price is retracing back upward, forming Wave B, and it’s approaching my Sell Zone between the 0.70 and 0.886 Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave A. This area also lines up with the liquidity sweep zone, which strengthens the case for rejection. Once Wave B completes inside this Sell Zone, I’m anticipating Wave C to unfold to the downside. My first target is around 3612, which is the 1.0 extension of Wave A. From the current level around 3687, that move down would represent about a 1.84% drop. If momentum is strong, price could even extend toward deeper targets near 3554. So in short, my plan is to sell inside the 0.70–0.886 retracement zone, keep my stop above the Wave 5 high, and target at least 3612 for a 1.84% decline this week.