Technical analysis by seaphoss about Symbol COINX on 9/15/2025

COIN Summary COIN exhibits a textbook “expand → break → retest → coil” progression. A broad weekly megaphone that developed through 2024 continued into 2025 with a June ’25 breakout; price subsequently reached ~$445 (megaphone resistance) in July ’25 and then retraced in an orderly fashion, holding above 2023’s ceiling. Since that pullback, ranges have narrowed and participation has declined while price consolidates above $280—behavior consistent with constructive acceptance before a potential next leg higher. Market Structure and Setup The primary structure is defined on the weekly chart: an expansionary megaphone that retested prior highs. Tactically, the daily chart shows a controlled pullback, retest, and subsequent coil. This multi-timeframe alignment—higher-timeframe trend with lower-timeframe acceptance—creates favorable conditions for measured moves and for risk to be defined against transparent levels rather than discretionary judgment. Fibonacci-Based Upside Roadmap Anchoring to the 2024–2025 impulse advances, 1.618 extensions cluster around ~$580 (Sep ’24 → Dec ’24 leg) and ~$650 (Oct ’23 → Mar ’24 leg). These are not short-dated “targets” but conditional waypoints: they remain operative if the current consolidation resolves higher and the weekly uptrend reasserts. Microstructure: Short Consolidations as Future Magnets In sustained advances, brief, tight candlestick compressions often function as “price memory,” attracting subsequent retests and liquidity. COIN’s February 2024 bull-flag pause—formed mid-run—has been revisited multiple times since, underscoring how such compressions act as magnets in later price action. The present tight band atop $340–$370 should be viewed in similar context: it is both a potential near-term launchpad and a likely reference zone for future pullbacks as supply and demand re-balance around it. Execution Plan Accumulation is favored on constructive behavior within $290–$330 (retest followed by a higher low on the daily). For risk management, tactical invalidation sits below ~$280; for participants keying off weekly structure, a wider ~$250 stop aligns with the higher-timeframe shelf. If momentum resolves first, additional entries are reasonable on a clean break-and-hold above local range highs, using the reclaimed shelf to maintain tight risk. From a successful breakout, staged distribution into ~$580 with reassessment into ~$650 allows the position to self-finance while respecting the possibility of momentum fatigue. Invalidation Criteria A daily close back below ~$280 would indicate the near-term reclaim has failed and the base requires more time. A weekly close beneath ~$250 would challenge the integrity of the larger expansionary structure. Either signal warrants standing aside and allowing the chart to reset. Fundamental Linkages Coinbase’s revenue remains acutely sensitive to crypto price trends and realized volatility. When BTC/ETH trend and trading activity broadens across spot and derivatives, COIN’s top line typically expands with the cycle. The U.S. regulatory backdrop has moderated relative to the prior year—removing one overhang—yet policy risk persists and can shift rapidly. In effect, the technical setup has a plausible fundamental tailwind when the broader crypto complex trends and trades. Key Risks Crypto beta: A broad risk-off in digital assets will likely transmit to COIN regardless of technical posture. Policy/regulation: Adverse enforcement actions or new rules could impair volumes, product breadth, or take rates. Competition: A prospective Kraken IPO would arm a major U.S. competitor; Robinhood’s continued crypto build-out pressures economics during quieter tapes. Operational/security: Exchange businesses carry ongoing operational and cybersecurity risks; incidents can compress multiples abruptly. Conclusion The market disclosed intent with the June breakout; current price action is testing sponsorship. Provided COIN continues to accept above $280–$330 and the ongoing coil resolves upward, the $580 → $650 roadmap remains credible. The operative plan is to trade the daily in the direction of the weekly, treat the former resistance shelf as the line in the sand, and require the chart to confirm strength before pressing exposure. Not financial advice. Just charting things out. Let’s see what happens. Please adapt levels, sizing, and risk controls to your own process and constraints.I don’t like giving trades room to work against me, so I continuously monitor and ratchet stop-loss levels higher. With the broader tape looking frothy and vulnerable to a pullback, it’s prudent to lift stops above breakeven and take the left tail off. Let’s aim to make this position effectively risk-free and let the market do the work.