Technical analysis by GlobalWolfStreet about Symbol PAXG on 9/5/2025

1. Theoretical Background: Exchange Rate Systems Before diving into pegs and managed exchange rates, it is essential to understand the spectrum of exchange rate arrangements. Free-floating exchange rates Determined entirely by supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. No direct government or central bank intervention. Example: U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, British pound. Fixed exchange rates Currency value is tied to another currency or a basket of currencies. Requires constant intervention to maintain the fixed rate. Example: Gold standard (historical), Hong Kong dollar peg to USD. Intermediate systems Includes currency pegs, crawling pegs, and managed floats. Aim to combine stability with some degree of flexibility. Most countries today operate in this middle ground. Thus, currency pegs and managed exchange rates fall under the "intermediate" category—neither fully rigid nor fully market-determined. 2. Currency Pegs: Definition and Mechanism A currency peg (also called a fixed exchange rate) is when a country’s central bank commits to maintaining its currency at a specific exchange rate relative to another major currency or basket. How It Works: The central bank monitors the foreign exchange market. If the domestic currency depreciates below the peg, the central bank intervenes by selling foreign reserves (usually U.S. dollars or euros) and buying domestic currency to restore the peg. If the domestic currency appreciates above the peg, the central bank buys foreign currency and sells domestic currency. Maintaining the peg requires large reserves of foreign currency and tight monetary discipline. Types of Pegs: Hard Pegs Currency is immovably fixed, sometimes legally. Example: Currency board systems like in Hong Kong. Soft Pegs Fixed within a narrow band but adjustable under certain conditions. Example: China before 2005 pegged the yuan to the U.S. dollar but adjusted occasionally. Crawling Pegs The peg is adjusted gradually, often in response to inflation or trade deficits. Example: Several Latin American countries have used crawling pegs. Historical Context The most famous peg system was the Bretton Woods system (1944–1971), where most currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, which in turn was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. This system collapsed when the U.S. could no longer maintain gold convertibility, leading to today’s diverse exchange rate regimes. 3. Managed Exchange Rates: Definition and Mechanism A managed exchange rate (or dirty float) is a system where a currency is allowed to fluctuate according to market forces but with periodic government or central bank interventions. Key Characteristics: The exchange rate is not strictly fixed. Central banks intervene to prevent excessive volatility or maintain competitiveness. Intervention tools include: Buying/selling foreign currency. Adjusting interest rates. Using capital controls. Example: China’s managed float system since 2005. The yuan is not entirely free-floating; the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) sets a daily reference rate and allows limited fluctuations within a band. Why Managed Floats? To avoid the instability of free-floating currencies. To retain flexibility in adjusting to shocks. To prevent speculative attacks common under rigid pegs. 4. Advantages of Currency Pegs Stability in Trade & Investment Pegs reduce exchange rate risk, encouraging foreign trade and investment. Example: Hong Kong’s USD peg has attracted global businesses. Inflation Control Pegging to a stable currency can help reduce inflation in countries with weak monetary institutions. Credibility for Developing Economies Pegs provide a clear and transparent exchange rate target, increasing investor confidence. Tourism & Remittances Stable exchange rates benefit countries reliant on tourism and remittance inflows. 5. Disadvantages of Currency Pegs Loss of Monetary Policy Independence Central banks cannot freely adjust interest rates. Domestic priorities like unemployment may be ignored. Vulnerability to Speculative Attacks If investors doubt the peg’s sustainability, massive speculative outflows can trigger a crisis. Example: 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Requirement of Large Foreign Reserves Maintaining a peg requires holding vast reserves, which is costly. Importing Inflation/Deflation Pegging to another currency means importing that country’s monetary policy. 6. Advantages of Managed Exchange Rates Flexibility with Stability Combines market-driven efficiency with government’s ability to smooth volatility. Crisis Management Tool Central banks can intervene during crises to stabilize the currency. Helps Maintain Competitiveness Countries can prevent their currencies from appreciating too much, supporting exports. Avoids Extreme Currency Misalignments Intervention reduces excessive swings caused by speculation or capital flows. 7. Disadvantages of Managed Exchange Rates Uncertainty & Lack of Transparency Since interventions are unpredictable, investors may face uncertainty. Cost of Intervention Frequent interventions require reserves and may distort the market. Moral Hazard Businesses may rely on government protection against currency fluctuations instead of proper risk management. Political Manipulation Governments may artificially keep currencies undervalued, leading to trade disputes. Example: Accusations against China for "currency manipulation." 8. Case Studies Case Study 1: Hong Kong Dollar Peg Since 1983, pegged at HK$7.8 per USD. Helped maintain Hong Kong as a financial hub. However, limits monetary independence, especially during crises. Case Study 2: Chinese Yuan (RMB) Pre-2005: Strict peg to USD. Post-2005: Managed float with a daily reference rate. This allowed China to gradually internationalize the yuan and maintain export competitiveness. Case Study 3: Argentina’s Currency Board (1991–2001) Peso pegged 1:1 to USD to fight hyperinflation. Initially successful, but eventually collapsed due to loss of competitiveness and inability to devalue. Led to a severe financial crisis. Case Study 4: Asian Financial Crisis (1997–98) Many Southeast Asian economies had soft pegs to the dollar. When investors lost confidence, speculative attacks forced massive devaluations. Highlights the vulnerability of rigid or semi-rigid pegs without sufficient reserves. 9. Role of IMF and International Community The IMF monitors exchange rate policies and provides support during crises. It offers countries advice on choosing appropriate regimes depending on their structure. For developing nations, IMF often recommends flexible systems to absorb shocks. However, IMF-supported stabilization programs sometimes push countries toward pegs for credibility. 10. Modern Challenges Globalization & Capital Mobility Rapid capital flows make it harder to defend pegs. Currency Wars Countries may manipulate exchange rates for trade advantage, creating global tensions. Dollar Dominance Since many pegs are tied to the U.S. dollar, shifts in U.S. monetary policy have global spillovers. Digital Currencies & Fintech Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may transform exchange rate management in the future. Conclusion Currency pegs and managed exchange rate regimes are essential tools in global financial architecture. Pegs provide stability but sacrifice flexibility, often leading to crises if mismanaged. Managed exchange rates offer a middle path—allowing currencies to respond to market forces while enabling governments to intervene when necessary. The choice of regime depends on a country’s economic structure, trade composition, inflation history, and policy credibility. There is no one-size-fits-all approach. For small, open economies reliant on trade, pegs can be beneficial. For larger, emerging markets, managed floats may provide the necessary balance. Ultimately, successful exchange rate management requires strong institutions, prudent policies, and adaptability in a constantly evolving global economy.