Technical analysis by FX_Gold_Mastermind about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (9/3/2025)

I. Fundamental Analysis Strong safe-haven demand Weak US economic data (manufacturing has contracted for six consecutive months), trade policy uncertainty, and heightened global geopolitical risks are driving investors toward the safety of gold. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have intensified (the market is betting on an over 80% probability of a September rate cut). The prospect of falling real interest rates is supporting long-term strength in gold prices. The cumulative increase this year is 34.5%, significantly outperforming other assets, reflecting the market's concerns about systemic risks. Key Event Risks Non-farm payroll data (September 5th): If the employment data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen the case for a rate cut, further boosting gold prices. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (September 17): If a dovish signal is released or an interest rate cut is implemented, gold prices may break through previous highs; if a hawkish surprise occurs, it may trigger a short-term correction. II. Technical Analysis Trend Structure The bullish trend remains intact: Both the weekly and daily charts are in an ascending channel. A breakout from the end of the triangle consolidation could theoretically target the 3650 area. Key Support and Defense Lines: Short-term Support: 3545-3535 (Intraday Bull-Bear Divider) Strong Support: 3505-3500 (Bulls' last line of defense; a break below indicates a weakening trend) Resistance Area: 3555-3560 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper band) 3575-3585 Time Patterns and Trading Rhythm Asian Session: Frequently sees a surge followed by a decline or oscillation; avoid chasing the ups and downs. European session: Volatility narrowed, mostly building momentum for the US session. US Session: Regularly strengthening over the past two weeks. III. Comprehensive Trading Strategy Key Strategy: Buy low and go long (follow the trend before it breaks), sell high and go short only as a counter-trend short-term strategy. Specific Strategy: Long Opportunities: Buy lightly on pullbacks to 3540-3535, stop loss at 3525, target 3555-3560. If it falls to the 3505-3500 area, add to your long position with a stop-loss at 3495 and a target of 3550-3580. Short Opportunities: Test short positions on the first touch of 3575-3585 (strict stop-loss at 3590), with a target of 3550-3540. If the Asia-Europe session falls below 3535, short sell when it rebounds to around 3540, with the target at 3520-3505. Risk Management Tips: Single stop-loss should not exceed 2% of principal, and positions should be halved before the non-farm payroll report. If it breaks through 3585 strongly, the short selling order will be invalid, and the long position needs to wait for confirmation after a pullback. IV. Key Notes: Intraday data is light, but be wary of sudden geopolitical news disruptions. If the US dollar index moves unexpectedly during the US trading session, adjust your positions flexibly.Gold Intraday Trading Insights for Thursday, September 4th: 1. Overall Strategy Adjustment Market Dynamics: Gold prices retreated sharply by over 1% during the Asian and European sessions, confirming the start of a short-term technical correction. This was primarily driven by profit-taking following consecutive record highs, coinciding with the macro backdrop of a global bond sell-off and soaring interest rates. New Strategy: The daily chart closed with a long upper shadow, and the market fell below key support during the Asian session, weakening short-term bullish momentum and shifting to high-level volatility or a technical correction. The main strategy has been adjusted to "primarily short on rebounds, supplemented by short-term dips and long positions after key support levels stabilize." Core Logic: The market adjusted long positions ahead of the release of key data (ADP, initial claims) and non-farm payroll data to mitigate uncertainty risks. II. Adjustment of Key Technical Levels (Based on Latest Market Conditions) Latest Resistance Levels: Asia Session Opening/Strong-Weak Dividing Point: $3555-3560 (If the rebound fails to break this level, weakness will continue) Key Resistance: $3570-3578 (Yesterday's high, strong resistance zone) Latest Support Levels: Initial Support: $3510-3520 (Asia Session low area, with some buying) Strong Support: $3500-3508 (4-hour Bollinger Middle Band and previous platform, key to determining the depth of the correction) Deeper Support: $3485-3495 III. Specific Trading Strategy Adjustments 1. Short Strategy (Current Main Strategy) Entry Timing: Ideal Shorting Level: Enter upon a rebound to the $3550-3560 area and the emergence of resistance signals (e.g., a falling candlestick chart or momentum indicator divergence). Radical entry position: If the gold price continues to be weak and the rebound does not exceed $3,545, you can follow up with a light position. Stop-loss: Uniformly set above $3,570. Target: Gradually moving downwards towards $3,520 → $3,510 → $3,500. 2. Long Strategy (Secondary Strategy, limited to short-term trading at key support levels) Entry Timing: Never blindly buy the dip. Patiently wait for the gold price to fall back to the strong support range of $3,500-3,508 and for one or two clear bullish candlesticks (such as hammer candlesticks or engulfing candlesticks) to establish a stabilization pattern before attempting a light-weight short-term long position. Stop-loss: Must be set below $3,495. Target: If the price rebounds to the $3520-3530 area, you can consider reducing your position or exiting the market. IV. Core Risks and Position Management (Special Emphasis) Data Risk: Today will see the release of US ADP employment data and initial jobless claims data. These data results will directly cause significant fluctuations in the gold price in both directions, potentially triggering stop-loss orders. Strongly recommend: Clear all positions one hour before the data release and wait and see. Wait until market sentiment stabilizes and a new direction becomes clear after the data is released before entering the market. Technical risk: The long upper shadow line at the daily level combined with the overbought RSI indicates a very strong signal of a pullback correction. The risk of buying the bottom against the trend is currently much greater than the risk of shorting with the trend. Position Management: Today's market volatility is extremely high, so maintain a light position and keep your single position exposure to less than 1% of your total capital.September 5th Gold Trend Analysis and Trading Strategy: Key Focus: US Non-Farm Payroll Data I. Core Fundamental Analysis Bullish Factors: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market expectations of the Fed starting rate cuts at its mid-month meeting are the core driver of gold's consecutive record highs. The prospect of an accommodative monetary policy reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing fundamental support for gold prices. Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing geopolitical tensions have enhanced gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset. Bearish/Risk Factors: Technical Profit-Taking: After gold prices reached a record high for seven consecutive days, they accumulated significant short-term profit-taking. Thursday's (September 4th) pullback of over 1% suggests that bulls are partially closing their positions and locking in profits, which is the primary pressure for the price correction. Bond Market Sell-off: Global bond markets experienced a sell-off, sending interest rates (yields) soaring. This typically signals market concerns about inflation or the economic outlook, potentially attracting some funds from non-interest-bearing gold to interest-bearing assets. This diverges from gold's upward trend and presents a significant risk signal. Non-farm Payroll Data Preview: Today's release of the US August non-farm payroll data is the biggest variable of the day. The data's performance will directly impact expectations of a Fed rate cut: Strong data → Cooling rate cut expectations → Bullish for the US dollar, bearish for gold. Weak data → increased expectations of rate cuts → bad for the dollar, good for gold. II. Key Technical Analysis Current Trend: The long-term uptrend remains intact, but a short-term correction from the highs is indicated. The daily line closed with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure from above. Key Resistance Levels: Primary Resistance: $3555-3560/oz (hourly resistance, yesterday's US rebound high, today's bull-bear watershed) Strong Resistance: $3570-3580/oz (historical high) Key Support Levels: Initial Support: $3530-3520/oz (4-hour mid-line congestion zone, yesterday's Asia-Europe consolidation platform) Important Support: $3510-3508/oz (Thursday's correction low, strong support from the 5-day moving average on the daily chart and a psychological barrier) Ultimate Support: $3490-3480/oz (deep correction target) III. Comprehensive Trading Strategy Core Principle: Exercise caution and trade within a range before data releases; follow the trend after data releases. 1. Pre-Data Strategy (Before the Non-Farm Payrolls Data Release): Range-Bound Trading Sell on Rebounds: If gold prices rebound to the $3555-3565 area and show signs of stagflation (such as a bearish close with a long upper shadow on the hourly chart), try a small short position with a stop-loss above $3570, targeting $3540-3530. Buy on Pullbacks: If gold prices pull back to the $3520-3530 support area and show signs of stabilization (such as a hammer candlestick or bullish engulfing candlestick), try a small long position with a stop-loss below $3515, targeting $3545-3555. 2. Post-Data Strategy (After the Non-Farm Payrolls Data Release): Trade on Breakouts Breakout Scenario: If weak data leads to a strong breakout and consolidation of gold prices above $3560, follow up with a long position, targeting $3570-3580. Breakout Scenario: If strong data causes gold prices to effectively break below the $3,510 support level, short positions can be followed, targeting the $3,500-3,490 area. 3. Conservative Strategy: Primarily wait and see, waiting for the release of the non-farm payroll data to clarify the market direction before entering the market. Avoid the risk of sharp fluctuations and spread widening immediately after the data release. IV. Risk Warning and Position Management Major Risk Event: All operations today must prioritize the non-farm payroll data. The data results are unpredictable and could trigger sharp market fluctuations. Strict Stop-Loss: Regardless of the strategy chosen, a stop-loss must be set to prevent significant losses due to data trends that go against expectations. Light position operation: Before the data, all transactions should be kept light, and sufficient funds should be reserved to cope with the trend market after the data. Summary: Gold's medium- to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, but it faces short-term technical correction pressure. The key to successful trading today lies in its response to the non-farm payroll data. It is recommended to buy low and sell high with a range-bound approach in the Asian and European sessions, and enter and exit quickly.