Technical analysis by FX_Gold_Mastermind about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (9/1/2025)

I. Core Fundamental Drivers Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut Strengthen: Market expectations for a September Fed rate cut have risen to over 87%. Fed Chairman Powell has previously signaled a dovish stance, suggesting an openness to a rate cut. If the interest rate cut is implemented, it will weaken the attractiveness of the US dollar, reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, and be good for gold prices. Safe-haven demand surges: The dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor has raised questions about the Fed's independence and weakened confidence in US dollar assets. Geopolitical tensions and continued global economic uncertainty (such as tariff policies and recession concerns) have driven funds into gold as a safe haven. II. Key Technical Levels Current Price: Spot gold is trading around $3,475 (yesterday's high of $3,489), approaching the historically important $3,500 level. Support Levels: Major support: $3,460-3,450 (short-term strength/weakness dividing line). Key Support: $3440 (recent low, trend-sustaining lifeline). Resistance: Near-term resistance: $3490-3500 (historical high breakout level). Targets after a breakout: $3530, $3580 (bullish extension targets). Technical Pattern: The daily chart is at the end of a converging triangle and has broken upwards. Both the weekly and monthly charts closed with large bullish candles, indicating strong bullish momentum. III. Short-Term Trading Strategy Long Strategy: Entry Time: Go long after a pullback to the 3460-3450 area and stabilization (conservative traders can arrange long orders in batches). Stop loss setting: below $3440 (if it falls below this level, the trend will weaken). Target Range: $3490-3500 (hold for a target of $3530+ after a breakout). Short Strategy: Participate with a light position only when a rebound encounters resistance: Short sell after a stagflation signal appears in the 3490-3500 area. Stop loss setting: above $3505. Target range: $3470-3460 (quick entry and exit, betting on technical pullbacks). Buy on breakouts: If the price breaks through the $3500 level, you can buy with a small position, targeting $3530-3550. IV. Risk Warning Historical seasonality: Over the past 10 years, the probability of a gold price decline in September has been 70%. Be wary of "good news exhaustion" and technical false breakouts. Position Management: Limit risk per trade to 2%-5% of total capital, and avoid buying heavily at high levels. If expectations of a Fed rate cut reverse or geopolitical risks ease, gold prices could face a deep correction. Summary: The short-term bullish trend remains unchanged. The operation is mainly to go long on pullbacks, with a focus on the breakthrough of the 3460-3450 support and the 3500 mark. Be cautious and strictly control risks before the release of non-farm data.📈 September 2nd Gold Market and Trading Strategy: I. Current Market Overview: Key Drivers: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market expectations for a September rate cut are as high as 90% (supported by July's US core PCE data). Safe-haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict) and a weakening US dollar (the US dollar index hit a 5-week low) are boosting gold prices. Technical Breakout: Gold prices accelerated upward after breaking through the previous resistance of $3,440, closing higher for six consecutive days. II. Technical Analysis Key Levels Resistance: $3,500-3,510 (historical high), $3,550 (psychological barrier). Support: $3,465-3,455 (intraday low and conversion support), $3,440 (key medium-term trend). Technical Indicators Trend Signals: Daily moving averages are in a bullish alignment, the MACD is in a golden cross, but the RSI is approaching overbought territory (around 71), suggesting a short-term correction risk. The 4-hour chart shows a pullback after a surge. If it falls below $3,470, it could drop to $3,452 (20-day moving average + 0.618 retracement level). Key Observations: If it holds above $3,440, the medium-term uptrend will continue; if it fails, a pullback to $3,410-3,400 is possible. III. Short-Term Trading Strategy Operational Strategies Primary Strategy (Buy on Pullbacks): Place long positions in batches within the $3,465-3,455 support area, with a stop-loss below $3,440 and a target of $3,500-3,510. If it breaks above $3,510, it could target $3,530-3,550. Secondary Strategy (Short on Rebounds): Try shorting only with a small position within the $3,500-3,510 resistance area (strict stop-loss above $3,515), with a target of $3,480-3,470. Risk Warning Overbought Pullback: With the RSI high and the price hitting a new high, be wary of a technical pullback of . Data Impact: Focus on today's US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday's non-farm payroll data. Strong data could dampen expectations of a rate cut. IV. Summary Overall Trend: Bullish, but be wary of the $3465-3440 support zone in the short term. Trading Recommendations: Long positions: Patiently wait for a pullback to support before entering the market; avoid chasing higher prices. Short position: Only short-term counter-trend trading is allowed, and strict stop-loss is required.Latest Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy for September 3rd: 📊 The gold market is currently in a clear bullish phase. While prices may experience a technical correction after reaching a record high, the overall trend remains strong. 📈 Overview of Current Gold Trends Trend Status: International gold prices (such as London spot gold) have broken through the $3,500/ounce mark, reaching a new record high. This marks the sixth consecutive trading day of gains for international spot gold prices. Core Drivers: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen to nearly 90%, which is the most important factor driving gold prices recently. Historical data shows that within the 60 days following the start of a Fed rate cut cycle, gold prices have averaged an increase of approximately 6%. Risk Aversion: Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence. This, coupled with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, have all increased gold's safe-haven appeal. Performance of the US dollar: Although the US dollar has rebounded moderately recently, it has not been able to effectively suppress the upward trend of gold prices. 📉 Key Technical Levels Current resistance levels: $3530-3540 (short-term), $3570. Current support levels: $3490-3480 (short-term), $3470-3460 (important support, a break below could lead to further decline), $3440-3450 (medium-term strength-weakness watershed, also a key resistance level previously broken that turned into support). Technical indicator signals: The daily chart shows a new high, the MACD double lines are in a golden cross, and the moving average cluster is bullish, indicating that bulls are still in control. The RSI indicator is approaching slightly overbought territory, suggesting possible short-term consolidation or a small pullback. However, within a strong trend, overbought conditions are likely to persist. 🛠️ Trading Strategy Recommendations: Primary Strategy (Buy on Pullback): Entry Time: If the gold price pulls back to the $3490-3480 support area and stabilizes, or if it pulls back further to around $3470-3460 and a stop-loss signal appears. Target: Initial target: $3530-3540, with a potential upside to $3570 or even higher after a breakout. Secondary Strategy (Short on Rebound): Entry Time: Only as a short-term counter-trend trade. If the gold price rises rapidly to the $3530-3540 or even $3570 resistance area and shows clear signs of stagflation (e.g., long upper shadows or divergences in technical indicators). Target: $3500-3510. Stop-loss: Set strictly above key resistance levels (e.g., $3550 or $3575). Position Management and Risk Warning: Avoid chasing rising and falling prices: Gold prices are currently at historical highs and volatility may increase. Try with a light position and deploy in batches: Long positions can be established in batches near key support levels to spread costs. Adhere to strict stop-loss orders: Regardless of whether you are trading long or short, always set a stop-loss order to protect your principal. 💎 Summary Gold is currently benefiting from the dual support of expectations of a Fed rate cut and safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks, and its medium- to long-term outlook remains positive. However, in the short term, due to technical signs of overbought conditions, be wary of high-level volatility and the risk of a pullback. In terms of operations, the primary strategy is to buy on pullbacks, supplemented by short-term selling on rebounds. Arranging long positions after stabilization near key support levels is a relatively stable strategy. Be sure to operate with a light position, strictly set stop-loss orders, and pay close attention to how the upcoming US economic data will guide market sentiment.