Fundamental analysis by پاراگراف‌ about Stock سیمرغ on 8/13/2025

Wounded Phoenix or Simorgh? When the shadow of war is heavier than ever, the only investment offer is to diversify the asset classes. In spite of all the bad news, on paper, conditions are such that the current expectation is not possible. If this default is true, one of the two paths was finally realized: either Roman Roman or a bell; Either the conflict, the destruction of infrastructure and the chaos, or the problem of problems with the West. It is natural that one who has not migrated so far is closed to the second scenario; Otherwise, instead of reading this, it should now seek to install solar panels on the roof, buy a آب tank or a piece of agricultural land. For optimists, those who hope for other coins, can be a little dreaming: What happened to the good scenario in the marketplace today? Return to nominal capacity. Many companies lose 2 to 6 months of production due to energy constraints. This industry's energy deficit can be solved in less than a year, with a plan to invest, invest in solar electricity and adjust energy prices; However, if we are not sanctions, there may be foreign financing and popular support. Therefore, in many companies, the actual growth of 2 to 5 percent is not unexpected. Inflation, interest rate and P/E ratio. Contrary to imagination, inflation is not in favor of the stock market; Rather, it is only better inflation than suppressed inflation. With the sale of 1.5 million barrels of oil more a day, the budget deficit is temporarily resolved, and on the other hand, the expectation of inflation is reduced by resolving problems with the West, which can lower interest rates. Suppose inflation of 2 % and interest rate 2 %, the ratio of P/E shares can grow up to 5 %; Especially now that prices have reached low levels. Correction of rates. Anyone who is familiar with the alphabet of the economy knows that in order to attract capital in Iran, the gas rate should not be twice as much as the US, Canada and Qatar, or the ownership rate of five times as much as Australia and Brazil. These are things that can become stock market potentials. Although this list can be much longer, it is enough to make the stock market returns a dream for parallel markets; Non -conscious returns that other markets cannot reach even in a ten -year period by stabilizing the exchange rate. Now that we are in war, the lack of electricity and the other pressures, this text may be more like a good dream; However, this situation should not lead to excessive pessimism to stock. Phoenix may rise from ash. August 1404 @rezayatee