Technical analysis by WizWiza about Symbol XRP on 8/9/2025

Short-term bias tilts bullish-neutral, with a breakout above $3.42 potentially triggering a rally toward $3.70. On-chain metrics are improving, derivatives remain balanced, and the post-SEC-case momentum is still alive — but all eyes are on the upcoming US CPI release for the next decisive move. Current Price: $3.32 | Market Cap: ~$197B | 24h Volume: ~$7.5B 📰 Market Context Regulatory breakthrough — the SEC vs. Ripple case has officially ended with a $125M fine and a ban on direct institutional sales. This removes a major legal overhang while keeping some restrictions in place. On-chain activity shows XRPL transactions and active accounts (7-day moving average) trending higher compared to June, indicating renewed network usage post-July rally. Derivatives market remains balanced: Open Interest is steady at ~$3.4B with only ±1% daily change. Funding rates are slightly positive at +0.01%, showing mild bullish sentiment but no overextension. Liquidations in the last 24h are ~$15–16M — within normal range. 📊 Technical Levels Main support is at $3.15 (20-day MA). If that breaks, next supports are $3.05–$2.95, then $2.70. Immediate resistance is $3.40–$3.42; a breakout here could open the path to $3.60–$3.66. RSI (14D) is between 55–62, suggesting moderate bullish momentum. MA-20 sits at $3.15, MA-50 at $2.61. 📅 Key Macro Event The US CPI report for July will be released on 12 Aug 2025 at 12:30 UTC. Expect volatility as inflation surprises can shift USD strength and global risk appetite. 📈 Weekly Scenarios Base (55%) Consolidation — consolidation between $3.15 and $3.42 if price holds above $3.15 with neutral OI and funding. Bullish (30%) Breakout — breakout above $3.42 on strong volume and a $200–300M rise in OI could push price toward $3.60–$3.70, possibly retesting $3.66. Bearish (15%) Pullback XRPUSD — break and close below $3.15 with rising long liquidations could trigger a move to $2.95–$3.05, and in extreme conditions down to $2.70. ✅ Action Points Watch for a breakout above $3.42 with confirmation from OI and trading volume. Track XRPL active accounts and payments — if they rise with price, the move is more likely sustainable. Consider adjusting leverage or widening stops around CPI release time to handle potential volatility. 💬 My view: Short-term bias is bullish-neutral, with upside potential if $3.42 breaks on strong volume. Macro data and on-chain metrics will determine if the rally can extend.