Technical analysis by EmilyShared256111 about Symbol PAXG on 7/9/2025

7.9 Gold AnalysisI. Market OverviewGold price fell sharply: On July 8, spot gold plummeted by more than 1%, hitting a low of $3287.06/ounce (a new low in a week), and closed at $3301.53. The main reasons include trade optimism (tariff extension) weakening safe-haven demand, a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields.II. Analysis of core influencing factors1. Trade policy and risk aversionThe Trump administration postponed the effective date of tariffs from July 9 to August 1, and imposed tariffs on 14 countries (up to 70%), but stated that negotiations with the EU and China were "progressing smoothly", and market expectations for easing trade frictions increased, weakening the safe-haven appeal of gold.Japan and South Korea responded quickly to the negotiations, further boosting risk appetite.2. Suppression of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yieldsThe U.S. dollar index surged to 97.83 (a one-week high), and non-U.S. currencies were under pressure (such as the yen depreciating due to the threat of tariffs on Japan).The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.435% (a two-week high), increasing the holding cost of interest-free gold.3. Inflation and Fed policy gameTariff policies (such as a 50% tariff on copper) may push up inflation, which is good for inflation-resistant gold in the long run; but in the short term, it may delay the Fed's interest rate cuts and suppress gold prices.Market expectations: A 50 basis point interest rate cut by the end of 2025 (starting in October), focusing on the signals released by the Fed's meeting minutes and officials' speeches.3. Technical analysisDaily levelTrend: After being blocked at the high of $3,365 on July 3, it has fluctuated downward, and the moving average system has turned downward to suppress it, which is weak in the short term.4-hour levelIt is in a downward channel, and the low of 3,287 has stabilized but no reversal signal has been formed. MACD crosses the zero axis, and RSI is below 50, and the short side is dominant.4. Trading strategy suggestionsShort-term:Short order: short at highs in the 3305-3315 range, stop loss at 3320, target at 3290.Long order: try long with a light position in the 3290-3285 range, stop loss at 3280, target at 3300-3310.Medium-long term:Wait for opportunities to deploy in batches at 3275/3265/3255, long-term target at 3400+. (Trump criticized Powell for stepping down, implying that the Fed’s meeting minutes will not cut interest rates, and it is worth waiting patiently.)5. Today’s focus eventsUS EIA crude oil inventory linked to energy market sentimentFederal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, interest rate cut path signal (core focus)Trading must be cautious and control risks! I wish you a smooth transaction!