Technical analysis by Trending_Gold_Miners about Symbol PAXG on 5/11/2025
Gold Weekly Review: Risk aversion pushes gold prices to a new high this year, and technical correction pressure emerges (May 5-May 10)Market Trend OverviewThis week, the international gold market showed a typical "high and fall" trend. Driven by multiple positive factors, the spot gold price broke through the 3,400 US dollar integer mark, reaching a high of 3,438 US dollars per ounce, a new high since 2024. Although the weekly line finally closed up 3.1%, technical selling pressure narrowed the increase, closing at 3,303.70 US dollars per ounce on Friday, down nearly 4% from the mid-week high. It is worth noting that the cumulative increase this year has reached 27%, and the gold bull market pattern has been further confirmed.Analysis of driving factors1. Geopolitical risks have eruptedRussia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the two sides have launched a fierce battle in the Kharkiv regionIndia and Pakistan have a military standoff near the Line of Control in KashmirThe situation in the Middle East has become tense again, and related military operations are continuing2. Trade policy uncertainty has increasedMajor economies have announced additional tariffs on some goodsSeveral regions are considering retroactive tariffs on imported goodsThe evaluation of important trade agreements has been restarted3. Changes in monetary policy expectationsMarket concerns about inflation prospects continue to riseExpectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks fluctuate significantlyThe US index fell 0.3% this week, increasing the attractiveness of goldTechnical analysisDaily level:The Bollinger Bands show a bell-shaped expansion and then narrowing pattern, and the upper track of $3438 constitutes a strong resistanceMACD shows a top divergence signal, and DIFF and DEA form a dead cross above the 0 axisRSI falls from the overbought area to a neutral level of 55.86Key price levels:Support level: $3290 (10-day moving average), $3190 (lower Bollinger Band)Resistance level: $3380 (previous high), $3438 (high point of the year)Position data:The net long position of gold futures speculation has decreased significantlyThe holdings of major gold ETFs have shown a moderate growthMarket view summaryBullish view:Changes in the global trade pattern will affect asset allocation strategies in the long term, and the value of gold as a safe-haven asset will continue to be recognized by the marketCautious view:The current gold price has already factored in a lot of risk premium. If the monetary policy maintains a tight stance, it may face a significant technical correction.Neutral stance:Seasonal factors may bring short-term pressure, but structural demand may provide support, and it is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern.Investment adviceShort-term traders may consider operating in the key support and resistance rangeMedium- and long-term investors are advised to adopt a batch-based position building strategy
