Technical analysis by makhmikhd about Symbol PAXG on 5/3/2025

This analysis presents a long-term Elliott Wave interpretation of gold from the 1970s to the present, focusing on the macro cycle structure.We are currently facing a major inflection point, where two valid scenarios emerge:Scenario 1 – Cycle Wave ⑤ Completed:A clear 5-wave impulse from the 2015 low is visible, with Wave (5) extending to the 2.618 extension of Wave (1). This aligns well with typical Fibonacci proportions.If this is correct, a multi-year correction may now begin, marking the end of the long-term bullish cycle.Scenario 2 – Still in a Running Flat:Alternatively, the entire structure since 2011 may still be part of a Running Flat correction:Wave A: 2011–2015Wave B: 2015–2024 (currently near 2.0 × A, which is extreme but still technically possible)Wave C: Yet to come (expected to be shallow and brief if this scenario holds)Key Decision Point:If Wave C drops below the low of Wave A, the Running Flat scenario fails — and we may be seeing the start of a larger degree correction.On the other hand, if price continues higher and breaks the assumed Wave (5) top, it may indicate the impulsive move is still in progress and the current count must be re-evaluated.Let me know your thoughts — which scenario do you favor?Is this the end of a decades-long cycle? Or are we still preparing for the final rally?#Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #MacroTrends #Commodities #Wave5 #RunningFlat #TradingView #CycleAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #GoldForecast