Technical analysis by rossso about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (11/8/2024)

Smart Money Play for GoldThe primary trend shows bullish signs overall (above the daily Ichimoku cloud), but recent bearish momentum and trend breaks suggest caution. Here’s how to approach it:1. Confirm Support Around Key Levels•Price recently bounced off the 2670 level, which aligns with the 50 SMA on the daily and acted as a previous turning point. This makes 2670 a critical support level.•Daily volume analysis with ADL positive and CMF above zero suggests underlying buying pressure hasn’t completely faded, indicating that buyers may defend this level in the short term.2. Monitor RSI and MFI for Bullish Signals•The daily RSI is below 50 at 48, which raises caution. If it remains close to 50 or reclaims this level, it may signal that bullish momentum is recovering and provide a potential long entry.•The daily MFI, sitting at 50, also needs to stay at or above this level to confirm continued buying interest. A dip below 50 would suggest a more significant downside risk, indicating that sellers may be gaining control.3. 4-Hour and Lower Timeframe Confirmation•On the 4-hour chart, price is retesting the 200 SMA from below after the recent rally from 2670 to 2708. A sustained move above the 200 SMA would be a strong signal of a short-term recovery.•The 2-hour MACD remains light green, indicating that bullish momentum is fading. Watch for it to turn dark red as a potential early indicator of another leg down, or to stabilize and re-strengthen if price remains above the 200 SMA.4. Ichimoku and Bollinger Bands for Trend Context•Daily Ichimoku cloud analysis shows price has dipped below the conversion and base lines, though it remains above the cloud, suggesting a short-term bearish correction within a longer-term bullish structure.•Price currently resides in the lower part of the daily Bollinger Bands. If it holds here or moves towards the middle band (20 SMA) without breaching further support levels, it could indicate consolidation before resuming the upward trend.Trade Ideas1.Long Continuation (Buy-the-Dip):•Entry: Enter near 2670 if price shows bullish signs (e.g., 4-hour MACD turns dark green again or 4-hour RSI moves higher).•Stop-Loss: Place a stop below the daily 50 SMA and recent low (around 2660) to allow for volatility while managing downside risk.•Target: Look for a rally towards the 20 SMA and middle Bollinger Band on the daily (around 2720–2730), and potentially the daily Ichimoku conversion line if momentum returns strongly.2.Short-Term Short (if daily RSI remains below 50 and MFI dips under 50):•Entry: If price breaks below 2670, consider a short position targeting the lower Bollinger Band or Ichimoku cloud support as an initial target.•Stop-Loss: Set stops just above the 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart to avoid excessive risk if the trend turns.•Target: Initial target around 2650 or Ichimoku cloud support level on the daily as a lower support.Summary of Smart Money Play1.Trend Bias: Mixed – watch for continuation signals around support for long positions, but don’t ignore bearish continuation if support breaks.2.Setup: Wait for confirmation around 2670, with a preference for long if support holds.3.Entry Trigger: Use 4-hour MACD, RSI, and price action around the 200 SMA for confirmation.4.Risk Management: Stops below support for long positions or tight stops above resistance for shorts, with targets around Bollinger bands and Ichimoku levels.