14.10.2025 tarihinde sembol PAXG hakkında Teknik Swissquote analizi

The “debasement trade” has emerged as one of the key market themes: a strategy based on the loss of value of fiat currencies amid unlimited monetary creation, rising public debt, and the erosion of purchasing power. In this context, investors have turned to so-called “tangible” assets—gold and silver—viewed as safe havens against monetary dilution. But while this narrative has dominated much of the year, several fundamentals could gradually bring it to an end by late 2025. First, the end of the U.S. government shutdown would restore confidence in American fiscal management and reduce the political risk premium. In the same vein, clearer fiscal consolidation and a return to minimum budget discipline could signal that governments are regaining control over the trajectory of deficits and debt. This mere shift in perception could be enough to ease fears of U.S. dollar “debasement.” At the same time, if central banks maintain or raise real interest rates, fiat currencies would regain competitiveness against non-productive assets. Positive real yields restore the value of cash and reduce the appeal of inflation hedges. This is even more true if inflation expectations decline: less fear of price surges means less need to seek protection through gold or other precious metals. A stable or stronger dollar would reinforce this dynamic—it is, in fact, the most important factor signaling the end of the debasement trade. Historically, a firm greenback weighs on precious metals while signaling renewed confidence in monetary stability. At the same time, a better global growth environment could redirect capital toward risk assets at the expense of “hard assets.” Another key element is the tightening of liquidity conditions. Less money in circulation and less speculative excess would dry up flows into safe-haven assets. Similarly, a geopolitical de-escalation would reduce demand for protective values. If, in parallel, institutions reallocate toward bonds—attracted by once again appealing yields—that would mark the end of the great flight from the fiat system. Finally, the real turning point will come with the return of political and monetary credibility. When markets once again perceive authorities as capable of managing debt, inflation, and growth without resorting to the printing press, the engine of the debasement trade will naturally shut down. Once confidence is restored, the risk premium on tangible assets will decline, placing the dollar, real yields, and macroeconomic discipline back at the center of the game. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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