unknownstranger

Looking at Bitcoin Chart Just an extension to what I publish earlier this week. My mic is not the best, so bear with me please.

Bitcoin Halving Analysis Bitcoin Halving is the supply reduction event which occurs every 210,000 Blocks until all 21 Million coins are mined. At genesis, there were 50 Bitcoins minted each block. Each block takes 10 minutes hence it would take approximately 4 years to mine 210,000 blocks. First Halving occurred on November 28, 2012, at block height of 210,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 25 BTC. On this day the price was $12.24. On November 25, 2013 price reached $1177.19 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 9120% for a period of one year. Second Halving occurred on July 9, 2016, at block height of 420,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 12.5 BTC. On this day the price was $649.22. On December 17, 2017 price reached $19,764.51 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 2944% for a period of one and half years. Third Halving occurred on May 11, 2020, at block height of 630,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 6.25 BTC. On this day the price was $8580.84. On November 10, 2021 price reached $68,944.62 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 702% for a period of one and half years Fourth Halving will occur in April or May, 2024, at block height of 840,000. Afterward Block reward will change to 3.125 BTC. If the current pattern continues, the next highest price point will occur in the 2025 4th Quarter.

BTC Weekly Review Week 21 Indicators and Drawings Used Channels are used to understand key levels and movement trends. Volume is used to understand if it’s bullish or bearish movement Daily EMA used as the key trend indicator with readings of 13 and 21. In addition in lower time frames the same EMA of chart interval is used. EMA is a lagging indicator. RSI of 14 is used as the oscillator indicator. RSI is a leading indicator. Fear and Greed Current index value is 52. This has been fluctuating within the neutral zone for 3 weeks now. This is reflecting indecisive nature from investors. Monthly Chart Price Action Seems May is going to close as a bearish candle. This can be the start of a reversal for the mini trend we had since January. Volume Trading volume has not been great so far this month, similar to last month. Reduction of trading volume is significant for the last 2 months. So the prior 9 months would have been the bottom accumulation. EMA Still the 13 EMA is below 21 EMA, this reflects that we are still in bearish trend. RSI Not logical to analyse due to lack of data What to watch The US government has an agreement in principle to raise the debt ceiling. This can lead to quantitative easing which can result a uptrend in price action. Weekly Chart Price Action Week closed on a strong green candle reflecting a strong body. Volume Trading volume does not coincide with the candle body. Hence the bullish nature of the candle is questionable. Trading volume is minimal and at the same level for the last 9 weeks. EMA Price has been above Weekly EMA 31/21 since January. As suggested, the price found support on 13 EMA. RSI RSI barely touched the overbought area in April, now indicates it’s going back towards oversold. What to watch Weekly price action is still within the chanell, this need to be kept under review. Daily Chart Price Action Mini consolidation within the triangle broke toward the down side. Price then found support on the channel. On Sunday it showed a heavy price change. This is mostly fueled by retail investors. Also Price Action created consecutive lower lows. Volume Trading volume has been minimal and at the same level for the last 50+ days. EMA Price has broken through the EMA resistance after many attempts. However EMA 13 is still below EMA 21. RSI Recent price action has pushed RSI back towards upward. What to watch EMA 13 needs to come above EMA 21, if not this can lead to another bearish trend. Price can make the third lower low and can be still within the price channel. 4Hr Chart Price Action Price is fluctuating within the channel. Price found support on the bottom line, and then broke through the midline and retesting it as support. Volume Trading volume has been similar throughout the chart with few exceptions.This indicates a more neutral outlook. EMA The EMA 13/21 band has turned bullish. Price is trying to find support on EMA 13 which is close to the midline of the channel. RSI RSI has come back to over brought area What to watch Waiting to see if price can find support. Then it may show some strong price action towards topline of the channel. 1Hr Chart - 15 Min Chart I do not review short time frames. But if you are a trader these are time frames you need to analyse based on your trading strategy.

BTC Weekly Review Week 20 Indicators and Drawings Used Channels are used to understand key levels and movement trends. Volume is used to understand if it’s bullish or bearish movement Daily EMA used as the key trend indicator with readings of 13 and 21. In addition in lower time frames the same EMA of chart interval is used. EMA is a lagging indicator. RSI of 14 is used as the oscillator indicator. RSI is a leading indicator. Fear and Greed Current index value is 52. This has been fluctuating within the neutral zone for 2 weeks. Reflecting indecisive nature from investors. Monthly Chart Price Action April has an indecisive candle. So far May is showing a bearish candle. This can be the start of a reversal for the mini trend we had since January. Volume Trading volume has not been great so far this month, similar to last month. Reduction of trading volume is significant for the last 2 months. So the prior 9 months would have been the bottom accumulation. EMA Still the 13 EMA is below 21 EMA, this reflects that we are still in bearish trend. RSI Not logical to analyse due to lack of data What to watch The US Banking Crisis seems settled. However, the BRC20 token congestion keeps continuing. Weekly Chart Price Action Previous week was bearish, making it the second consecutive bearish week. Current week is still reflecting an indecisive candle. Volume Trading volume has been minimal and at the same level for the last 7 weeks. EMA Price has been above Weekly EMA 31/21 since January. Currently Price is finding support on 13 EMA. If this holds we may see a reversal. RSI RSI barely touched the overbought area in April, now indicates it’s going back towards oversold. What to watch Next week candle close will confirm if it’s a reversal or a continuation in price action. Also if EMA support will break or not. Daily Chart Price Action After liquidating longs,last Friday, price was ranging the entire week. We can see a triangle pattern being formed. Volume Trading volume has been minimal and at the same level for the last 50+ days. EMA EMA 13 is below EMA 21, reflecting a bearish trend. Also the price has been rejected at EMA 13 multiple times last week. So a strong resistance has been formed here. RSI RSI is now moving towards oversold after hitting the overbought section twice in a month's period. What to watch Sooner or later the price will try to break this triangle pattern. 4Hr Chart Price Action The triangle pattern is reflected in this time frame as well. Price need to start finding a clear path to continue. Volume Trading volume has been similar throughout the chart with few exceptions. This indicates a more neutral outlook. EMA Price has been moving to both sides of the 13/21 EMA band. Even the Band itself has been crossing each other reflecting a more neutral action. RSI RSI is also in a more neutral area, price action will determine which side it will be pushed. What to watch Waiting for a clear price to break out from the triangle. 1Hr Chart - 15 Min Chart I do not review short time frames. But if you are a trader these are time frames you need to analyze based on your trading strategy. 1 hr chart reflects a similar price action to 4 hr charts.

BTC Weekly Review Week 19 (MID) Indicators and Drawings Used BINANCE:BTCUSDT Channels are used to understand key levels and movement trends. Daily EMA used as the key trend indicator with readings of 13 and 21. In addition in lower time frames the same EMA of chart interval is used. RSI of 14 is used as the oscillator indicator. Monthly Chart Price Action April has an indecisive candle. Can be a continuation or a reversal. Similar indecisive candle appeared in February and it became a continuation next month. EMA Not logical to analyse due to lack of data RSI Not logical to analyse due to lack of data What to watch Watch out for fundamentals such as the US Banking Crisis and BRC20 token creating congestion in the bitcoin network. These can fuel a hype into price action. Weekly Chart Price Action Accumulation, Market-Up, Distribution, Market-Down is clearly visible for the previous market cycle. Currently a new cycle is getting formed so it is unable to clearly define phases. Refer to the Market Cycles article for knowledge. EMA Price has been above Weekly EMA 31/21 since January. Currently Price Action is consolidating for 6 weeks. This is allowing the gap between Price and EMA trend to reduce. RSI RSI barely touched the overbought area in April, now indicates it’s going back towards oversold. What to watch Weekly close below EMA trend and consolidating levels may indicate a short term bearish movement. This is ideal to retest upper resistance of accumulation phase as support. Daily Chart Price Action If you dissect the daily chart, A mini cycle can be viewed within the major cycle. We are currently in a distribution of that mini cycle. EMA Price broke the EMA support and reflected a bearish nature. RSI RSI is now moving towards oversold after hitting the overbought section twice in a months period. What to watch Daily close below consolidating levels may indicate a short term bearish movement. RSI to touch or come closer to the oversold area. 4Hr Chart Price Action Price has been moving inside a mini distribution channel reflecting consolidation. Same time it’s visible that a slight market-down channel is being built. This is not yet fully confirmed. If you dissect the daily chart, A mini cycle can be viewed within the major cycle. We are currently in a distribution of that mini cycle. EMA Price broke EMA support and retested it as a resistance Then created a huge fall. Now it's getting consolidated again. The EMA line is now again creating a resistance which can keep price bearish for some time. RSI RSI came back to the oversold area, where last time it barely touched. What to watch Look for bullish divergence if it occurs in this time frame. This will clearly indicate a trend reversal most of the time. 1Hr Chart - 15 Min Chart I do not review short time frames. But if you are a trader these are time frames you need to analyse based on your trading strategy. Fear and Greed Currently the index has fallen to 52 from a mid 60’s level. Entire last month it was above 50. Going below 50 can indicate increasing fear among traders and investors