BITCOIN - VERY Important Fib and VERY Important MA!!! Clickbait title ftw 😸. I'll continue the short term TA from the previous thread here as it was getting a bit long. RIght...! There is a felling of belief and even hope in the markets I think, and that is dangerous! Suddenly there are many "TA"s talking up consolidations, and pushing on to 30K etc, and its also the same with stocks and indexes and i'll link my work on SPX and NDX. But anyhow BTC - are we on for 100K tomorrow morning or even 30K next week or this month 🤔? Well you guessed it (or what i'm going to write) - probably not. In fact I think a wipe out collapse is coming. And lets leave TA to the side for a second (wut 🤨) Lets think about psychology and the market moving game for a second. Does the market want to usher in the free lunch community for an easy ride and help them get in at a great moment to so they can make a fortune and tell their friends and family what geniuses they are. And all across the world hodl club get the text from their favourite crypto app telling them "the bull market is on - its time to buy" - "wake up little hodler." Is that how this works, these apps and exchanges really are robin hood that take from the rich and give to the poor (too funny an exchange is called Robin Hood) Robin Hood is here to tell you its time to get rich 💡 ??? And obviously I wont condescend - the answer is no. The game is rigged, you're always being playing if you are not aware of the game - and thats not just trading, that is everything. But that type of conversation is beyond the scope of this Bitcoin thread so back to the chart. ... Ok so BTC has been very corrective - very choppy price action and this is unstable and I think we've potentially reached the top of Wyckoff "AR - Automatic Rally" following the "SC - Selling Climax" low. And if correct what this means is this could be a fairly long accumulation. Last week's candle was a doji (indecision) hugging the 200MA and this week's candle although not complete till the weekend is done but its currently a tiny wee little doji - again hugging the 200MA. And you may think that hugging a moving average is a good thing but I would suggest that its a very thing. A good thing would be price bouncing at an MA and wicking through. When price hugs and MA it is a corrective path where upside impetus is slowly exhausted until it falls through. And thats what is about to happen I think. And I'm going to have a throw at the dartboard and say it will be next week, in not it will be the next. Now... There's a very important and somewhat hard to find fib and now having had some time to look through all the options - I think this out of all the possible fibs is the most important one. Slightly hard to find only because the last pivot is a higher high. Ok... So, next event in Wyckoff accumulation is "ST - Secondary Test." If I was creating the names of Wyckoff events I might call this "FT1 - First Fear Test." Because that is what it is. In terms of psychology AR breathes hope into the free lunch community and mostly towards the top is where most of the herd will start buying. I'm being cheeky with the terms but this is nothing more than emotional psychology and the market movers are well aware that the herd trade on emotion and without skill - and so they are effectively herding the free lunch community; fooling them at every turn. And thats why many hodler gurus advocate for DCA and to an extent they are right because the hodler can buy AR and if they are disciplined buy throughout the fear testing with DCA and really they are doing great. The trouble is by the time BTC bottoms they may be in so much pain and that may affect their judgement. Digressing a bit... Are you still here 😆? Ok good 👍🏻. So anyhow hope is high currently and there will be a lot of buying. A wise guy on my previous thread apparently thinks that only a nuclear event or a war in Taiwan will see BTC go below 21K and that is the calibre of player in the crypto market. And if you're reading this you should be very thankful for this type of player; so willing to talk balls and carry the bags. As long as there are plenty of hodlers like this and there are plenty then the game remains unchanged. The market movers are happy that they have a bountiful feast at every turn, and for the manual trader thats put enough time in, the game isn't actually too difficult. If these loud mouth billy-big-boots types actually wised up then that would be bad news because the market movers would need to make the game more difficult, but thankfully there is no sign of that. Is this a microcosm of society 🤨? Perhaps... (Yes.) Still here??? We're nearly done... ... Ok, so next step is the first fear test (ST) and I think that if this fib is the most relevant then BTC will re-test it before this accumulation is done. And thats slightly below the orange band that is a typical retracement zone. In terms of buying I will be doing so as soon as BTC hts the orange band but I will buying down to the fib @ $18485. TLDR: BTC next low may be as far down as $18485. NOT SHORTING Not advice.

BITCOIN - Pump De Loop 😵 Continuation from the previous thread that was getting a bit long and there's plenty to talk about... So yesterday was interesting towards the end of the day following the FOMC rate hike. And there's more to come - GDP and Job data so its very difficult to know how markets will react but what is fairly high probability is there will be some whipsaw. Yesterday Nasdaq moved up more than 4% and half of that was post FOMC meeting. Its rare for this to happen in a day and its possible the index rocket-ship has arrived but I would suggest the odds favour a pull back and with more events coming up this week the whipsaw is likely to be to the downside. It may not be - we'll see. But BTC pump yesterday was very much in tandem with indexes. Overnight BTC has tagged the upper trendline of this ascending channel yet again which brings the number of waves to 7. Ok so whats going on here 🤔? Well considering elliott wave this can make some confusion - something BTC is very good at. Typically channelling corrective structures have 5 waves and of course waves within waves but now here we have 7 and the previous up wave escaped the channel. Firstly BTC could just be doing something very exotic and will leave all manual traders confused. However this previous high currently labelled E looks like a top simply because to broke a typically bearish structure to the upside. And so although quite impulsive I think that the recent pump may well prove to be a regressive wave that will at some point see BTC move down and finally break this ascending channel to the downside and hitting the orange band that is my target area for phase 2 buys. It may not get there and I may get left behind for re-entering but if you dont have patience then you dont get the deep buys. And for those of you following my previous thread you'll know that I sold some of my crypto related stocks yesterday and even entered a small short position (that i may regret 😄) against BITO ( BTC ETF ). And just to go off on a slight tangent here but; some of the crypto stock / ETF positions I've had have been short puts. And the advantage with these without going into too much detail as it would be very long - is that I sell the ticket to the trade (the premium) to a put buyer who wants price to go down and if i'm right I win the premium. By being the seller I am short the put and therefore it is a bullish position. The amount I can win is capped to the cost of the premium and so when I have won maybe 80% and I think a top may be coming - there is no point to hold the position because I can only make another 20% but I have that 80% to lose. And so shorting puts (being the seller of the ticket) you are looking for a rinse and repeat cycle. The advantage of such a trade is that lets say I buy MARA at $7 for $4.5 per share then if it goes wrong then at expiry i'll own MARA for $7 - $4.5 = $2.5 under the current market bottom which was $5.2. So having confidence that BTC will go up this was a way to have more exposure but less risk. And now i've sold them I will be looking to hopefully short more puts at a lower price. If it doesn't work out for me its fine I can short more puts anytime and the premium will be back at 0%. Nasdaq futures are down 1% already today. I will get my orange band 😁. Not advice.Comment: Forgot to add that BTC fell out of this smaller descending channel - printed a shakeout reversal pattern through the larger ascending channel low before rocket back up to break the descending channel to the upside. And so BTC has now fulfilled the expectation for a descending channel, and although there was some considerable downside shenanigans - it eventually broke to the upside. Now I expect the same thing to happen but in reverse for this ascending channel. It broke to the upside to print a shakeout reversal and now its going on a journey to break the lower trendline to the downside.

BITCOIN - Tesla BTC Flop + SEC FUD 😱🙀 FUD abounds and after so many Elon crypto tweets the hodler's hero suddenly goes belly up... This is real life Wyckoff Accumulation in action - the composite operator buying while the last of the herd flee. The herded money sell with the Tesla tip and of course there's no manipulation - this is just information received, a simple A to B, nothing to think about, no rat to find. And whats the point in being in crypto anyway with so much SEC doom in the news, exchanges in the spotlight yet again. They follow their shepherds in droves; selling their crypto and thanking their lucky stars for their gurus and their news feeds - getting them out before things got really bad. But for those few manual traders that work hard to seek the tracks of the gravy train and have the audacity to think for themselves - this ain't nothing but music! 🎵😸 Not advice.

BITCOIN - Short Term Perspectives Today there is a bit of short term sea change here as pre-market Nasdaq is up 0.5% but BTC is down 2.4%, so for the first time in a little while they are diverging. So whats going on here 🤔? Well its now fairly apparent that BTC has just topped in the short term and here's a list of things to evident that:- BTC has yesterday printed a Shooting Star candle which is bearish and that bearishness is currently being reinforced by today's bearish candle which if it closes here or lower will be an Evening Star candle pattern. BTC has printed a wedge ascending channel which is bearish. If BTC had gone on a flurry up further then things may have been different but since it has poked up out of the ascending channel only to fall back in - this is a Shakeout Reversal Pattern both through the channel top and the 1:1 fib. It is designed to trap buyers thinking its a breakout only to fake-them-out and swing back then other way. Within the channel we've had 5 waves which in Elliott Wave is typical and the thrust upward may have been an E wave from which now BTC will trend to the downside. With all that said its not impossible for BTC to perform another faked move to swing back to the upside and continue on up but it seems unlikely. And so if it is assumed that 18 June low to 20 July top is one corrective wave then the potential retracement can be taken as is on the chart and just as before I have banded the retracement Shakeout Reversal Zone as before but this time in orange. This is the area of retracement overshoot where price moves passed log 0.618 to fool shorts that it is going lower just the same as the SRP mentioned previous. So it doesn't have to get there, but that is an attractive reversal point and in the previous move there were 3 circled touches to with that blue band. It doesn't have to get there tough. If things are turning more bullish it may only get to the 0.382 or 0.5. So in a nutshell it looks like the first wave of this probable accumulation has now completed and from here there will most likely be another corrective wave down. If it gets to the orange band that can be a good area to buy, however if BTC falls much below it then there could be another collapse down. I dont think thats going to happen as its already very deep here relative to trend, but you never can be 100% sure. But anyhow alts are WAY UP from my entry point so whatever happens here its not of enormous significance for those trades and also some crypto related stocks RIOT and MARA. And what a waste of time it may have been for anyone that only bought BTC . Just as I'm writing this Nasdaq is now up 1% pre-market and BTC is back up to -1.72%. So we'll see how this day closes. "Short" denotes probable trend direction. NOT SHORTING. Not advice.Comment: 5 reversals at the 1:1 and you can see how relevant fibs are to the market movers. Big star LTF here so probably heading down albeit with some possible shenanigans.Comment: Here is yet another example of how BTC market movers create ambiguity to confuse. From one perspective BTC is currently re=testing and potentially consolidating the 1:1 fib. But from another it has potentially topped in the short term now moving correctively to the upside in an ascending channel (bearish) within an ascending channel (bearish). Btw when I say "bearish" it is only relative to that pattern. For example an ascending wedge will generally break to the downside to complete the pattern, but from there potentially "pattern separation" can occur and a bullish corrective pattern can form.Comment: The daily chart printed a star that was then followed by a hanging man. This is indicative of a crash structure potentially, however looking at the candles in isolation it could simply be a retracement to continue higher. It is only due to the ascending channels that I'm slightly bearish short term, but you never know, perhaps we will consolidate and go higher and for the reason most of my positions are still live although I have exited a few.Comment: Also - the ABC is just an example since the candle has not yet closed. It could also go higher and still fall through the lower trendline to the same effect.

BITCOIN - Crypto Is Leaving While The Naysayers Rant 🚀🦧🍌 Well well well... This is a very interesting pre week pre-market! Highlights today are MATIC up 24% and APE now up 25% All while (lbf) BTC is not doing much. A little impulse within a corrective channel but nothing to write home about really. And this is why it was important to get in alts early because they are going to be GONE GONE GONE over the horizon by the time BTC finally gets around to pumping 😄. What is very interesting though looking at MATIC for example, is that if this is only a bounce retracement to then go lower then really it should not go passed 0.786, but as you can see here with BTC doing nothing its almost at 0.5 already! What does this mean? Well it means we may be looking at new highs for some, perhaps many alts in this bull rally! 😵 Just to go into BTC chart briefly- I have overlaid Nasdaq Futures (for pre-market) and as you can see BTC is effectively moving with NQ1 here. Although its had some impulse BTC is still in a choppy corrective channel and so I wouldn't be surprised if it touches the demand trendline again which may allow better entries. I'm not actually buying BTC or ETH since there are crypto related stocks that I can buy that work just as well. Once BTC gets back above the long term 1:1 @ 23K then it should get pumping I think. Then in retrospect this area will have printed a shakeout reversal pattern on higher time frame. Also worth noting is that BTC is spending more time back above the log 0.382 retracement from the previous low to high and that is its typical bottom. And there is a case for swinging alts into BTC when it pumps but i'll just buy more BITO (ProShares BTC ETF ) when that happens and let my alts do their thing. I'll be making threads on more crypto related stocks soon. And just a little beef to close. Have you noticed how this alt move has completely slipped under the radar of many BTC bears, still charting the next wave down and how obvious it is 😄? Not advice.Comment: Don't forget to LIKE / COMMENT 😄 👍🏻.

MATIC - Has Joined The Party 🎈 MATIC one of my picks having a surge today up 15% near daily close. This is on the back of BTC making an important crossing back above a demand line and showing that this could potentially be the bottom. And so it appears that MATIC may have completed a running flat correction now for the first time the dominant trend may be to the upside. Once it gets above resistance I think it may go absolutely bananas 🦍🍌. But we'll see. BTC needs to hold and there may be more twists in the tale. And across the board many alts pumping now, too many to cover - CRV up 18%! Isnt it interesting that today was another "inflation FED tightening = recession" outpouring - all round general FUD day, but yet under the radar alts are breaking out. That is the nature of the financial beast. That is how this circus operates 🎪. Not advice. @Be77niComment: Make that 19%!!!

COMP - Here Comes DeFi 🧑🏻‍🚀 COMP up 10% today so far but it doesn't look like its going to be on the brakes too long as its currently pushing through the 50DMA and now printing a descedning channel that is probably a BULL FLAG . 🐂

UNI - Leading The Crypto Bull Run! 🚀 UNI has broken above resistance with impulse as can be seen well on the daily chart . Last bull market it was UNI that surged hard and long in the early stages and I think this may happen again. It may re-test, it may even fall back below resistance, but I think in a week, in a month, in 3 months UNI will be well on the way to the moon, or at least a retracement moon 😄🌒. Not advice.

DOGE - Taking Profit Again Big wick here out of ascending channel and i'm selling my swing position. Not advice.

UNI - Profit Taking Again UNI is hitting a clear 1:1 here with some wick while BTC has a flash mini potential blow off top so im taking some profits here. I'll be looking to re-enter my swing at the log 0.382 which is $5.39. It may (I think) get to the 1.272 but even if it does and reverses then a 0.382 is still lower than current price at $5.54. Some bearish divergence also on the 1H. Also NDX hitting resistance so I'm expecting a down day tomorrow which can also pull crypto down so it would be approriate time for BTC to top if thats correct. Most of the other coins i'm leaving alone unless they have clear fibs and I cant be doing with too much fiddle. Not advice.