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BTC - A reversal signal in the 4hr chart To extend upon my thesis that we have seen the low of the BTC bear market, I point out that we have seen a strong reversal pattern just complete, that is more obvious in the 4hr chart. Above you will notice the Inverse Head and Shoulders formation has completed around the $25.3K low. It is early days and anything could happen, however, this is also coincident with a 5-wave impulse higher that was followed by a 3-wave correction. Together, I believe, these indicate the trend has reversed. What do you think? Is it up from here, or is it all just another fake-out?
BTC - A Pivot Low? I am not presenting all my reasons for believing that the bottom of the bear market has occurred, however, you can see in this chart that all Fib levels have been attained, the RSI is oversold, the MACD is at an extreme, there has been more sustained volume over the past few days than anytime since the March 2020 lows. These observations coupled with the historical fact that this is the 7th consecutive week of weekly red bars, and the previously longest period of consecutive weekly declines was just 5 weeks, gives me confidence that we have seen the low point. What do you think? Is it higher prices from here, or is BTC about to fall through the floor of the previous cycle's all time high of $20k (that's never happened before, BTW)?
Bitcoin - Targets Hit With the decline today into the $27k range, Bitcoin has basically fulfilled all my expected targets for the low of this bear market. But where to from here? Shall we see further declines, a period of consolidation or will the recovery get underway. Well, I expect perhaps a little more give in the BTC market before the recovery can be considered to be moving ahead. My indicator is 30 on the weekly RSI and we are still a little above that. But what of the Alts? Is it possible that some of the alts could move higher even if Bitcoin drops lower? I think so. What do you think?
Bitcoin - Bear market on-track With Bitcoin breaking below its trading channel and in its 5th consecutive red day, the bear market is appears to be firmly on track to print a new low and break back into the $32k range. That is just a short drop from my first target low of $31.6k and gives me the expectation that my oft-mentioned $28k target may soon be realised. A look at the weekly chart and I note that this is the 7th consecutive week of price declines and is the longest period of declines in BTC history, assuming there isn't a turn-around this week. With the Fear and Greed index at 11 today, almost in the single digits, it feels like a finale of capitulation is just around the corner, if not this week, then probably next. What do you think? Is price about to crater to new bear market lows, or are we on the verge of moon-lambo euphoria? 😉 Here's a hint: The weekly RSI has not yet broken 30.
Bitcoin - successive break-downs It’s been a week of decidedly bearish action, with BTC breaking below two structural supports; one a short-term channel, the other was a line of support that had held since January. Currently we see BTC flirting with support at $37.5k, however, another close below $38k confirms the break of the longer-term parallel channel and Bitcoin will be seeking out lower levels of support. Three levels present as Fibonacci targets but only two as potential pivot-lows: $34.7k as the 0.5 projection of W-wave, coinciding with prior support; $31.6k as the 0.618 projection of the W-wave and a new bear-market low; and $28.3k to $27.1k as the zone for 0.786 for the W-wave, another new bear-market low, coinciding with the 0.618 retracement of the prior bull-run to $69k. How will this play out? Will we see more down-side action into a capitulation event to reach these levels? What do you think will happen next?
Bitcoin - Looking for a bearish break Seeing price rejected at the $48.2k level and what looks to be a bearish flag forming could see BTC break downward towards $31.7k. This would complete a lower low of its WXYXZ correction and set the stage for price appreciation.
Bitcoin - Breakout or fake-out? In 5 minutes of trading yesterday, Bitcoin pushed through its $45.5k resistance level to close up 5.19% higher on the day at $46.8k. A very impressive 5 minutes, indeed. However, overall volume for the day was below average. Today, price struggled at the first level of resistance, pulling back from $47.5k, while the RSI moved up to touching the over-bought level. With multiple levels of resistance between the current price and $52.3k it looks like BTC might be hard pushed to get beyond $49.5k in the current run. A failure at this level would set the stage very nicely for a completion of its correction down to the overall market retracement level at around $28.5k, with a correlation of Fibonacci projections. What do you think? Have we got upward impulsive Elliott waveforms in play that will drive price to the moon, or are we still within a compounding correction?Comment: Just to be clear, a break above $52.3k flips the switch to the case for a bull market.
Bitcoin - Reviewing the current rally Isn't it great to see appreciation in BTC after such a long period of decline. In this chart you can see BTC has broken out of a symmetrical triangle formation (dotted black line) and is now approaching major resistance at $45.5k. Will it pull back at the point and re-establish its downward trend, or continue to land on the moon? The head winds are strong and I feel that the correction is not yet over. But what do you think?
THETA - Strengthening At the end of a positive week in THETA we see it break through to the upside of the Triangle formation that has dominated THETA for almost 12 months. It is now the 3rd day above the upper line of past-resistance and the longer it holds above that line, the better the bulls will like it. Volume is low at the moment though, so early days.
Bitcoin - Bear market comparisons A comparison of the current bear market, on the left, to the 2018 bear market, on the right, demonstrates numerous similarities while being of distinctly different character. Similarities include: The bearish crossing of the shorter period MAs below the 200MA; The strike below the 0.382 Fibonacci level; The declining channel and significance of its centre line; and The intermediate Bullish MACD divergence. However, the structure of the correction is different, as is its apparent duration. With the 0.382 level already tested, I would not be surprised to see some consolidation around the $35.6k range before a final capitulation.