thegoldhoarders

looking at gold today it seems we could be looking at at another decent move up. a bullish pennant has clearly formed as illustrated by the blue lines but what's interesting is that from looking at the volume indicator we can also clearly see a divergence in price and volume which hopefully means an upward move is imminent. there is however nothing on the economic calendar this week that would serve to give gold a push in the right direction so for now its a waiting game but ill be keeping a close eye on this and have price alerts set ready for when the action breaks out!

looking at potential trades today im confident that gold could be this weeks winner, spotted a nice bullish flag formation after golds most recent rally, it currently hits all the criteria however if price drops below the 0.382 fib level i would consider this pattern and setup invalidated. So for a solid trade signal ill be waiting for tomorrows release of the fed interest rate decision at 18:00 to give me a more accurate picture. providing gold goes the way i predict i will be looking to enter at the break of the previous high around 2175.00, stop loss set at 2140.00 to give the trade room to move, based on flag pattern behavior we would usually expect to see price move almost the entire length of the prevailing flagpole so take profit will be 1.5 rr minimum which puts price around 2230.00.

so this is an update following my Elliot wave analysis posted on the 23rd of November, a lot to get through in this post so ill try to keep it brief. I believe there is a very good chance price is about to reverse based on the signals given below. 1) not hugely significant on its own but worth noting is the reducing length of the Elliot waves as price approaches the currently held psychological level at 2075 signaling a reduction in interest to push prices higher any time soon. 2) the 5th Elliot wave looks to have completed, which often but not always signals that a corrective wave pattern is imminent this is illustrated by the green ABC pattern. 3) As highlighted by the 2 blue circles price has also formed a double top which is made more significant by the fact it appeared pretty much smack bang on the resistance/psychological level at 2075, further signaling a likely reversal in price. 4) The 5th Elliot wave is usually where you will see divergence, unfortunately I cant highlight it on the daily time frame but if you look at the 4hr time frame there is a clear divergence in volume and price lending further weight to my bearish prediction. its also worth noting that after a "corrective wave" following an Elliot wave the prevailing trend often resumes in this case a bullish trend which is further supported by the current FOMC interest and inflation rate predictions for 2024. as always I look for ideas and signals that contradict my analysis so as to build the most accurate picture of market conditions and prevent myself and anyone following my advice from losing money, as of right now I haven't seen any strong evidence in favor of a bullish move but if you have then I would love to hear from you.

pleased to report my inverse head and shoulders analysis appears to be coming true, however the pattern is not yet complete so im not going to get ahead of myself. I have spotted some clear divergence marked by the orange trend lines which are lending weight to my analysis and almost all of the most recent data and news reports point to a strong chance of a continued move upwards so i entered the market early this afternoon with my current position highlighted by the forecast tool so lets see how that plays out. aside from recent market conditions i would like to discuss trajectory for next year, in recent weeks we have seen gold perform exceptionally well and as i have mentioned in previous posts gold has been coming back to its "ceiling" with increasing frequency signaling a desire to break out into new territory and looking at fomc forecasts it seems that may very well be the case for the reasons given below. 1) early December saw a new all time high being formed and now we are coming back to that level less than a month later! 2) the fomc has acknowledged the economy slowing and has a 75bp rate cuts schedule currently in place for next year possibly spelling trouble for the dollar however this is all speculation currently so the smart choice for now is to be patient and wait for more data, that being said my overall outlook for gold is still bullish.

looks like gold might be poised for a short term trend reversal looking at the inverse head and shoulders pattern, however at this point i dont have any other technical or fundamental signals to lend weight to this analysis so im keeping a neutral bias for now. what i often do in these moments of uncertainty is set price alerts so whichever way price moves i can reassess the market, ive set alerts just below the right shoulder of the pattern at 2015 and another at 2055 incase of a strong move upwards which is what im hoping for.

looks like a great start to the week for gold. building off my last idea i found a nice bullish flag pattern on the 1hr charts i was keeping a close eye on, price alert was triggered around midnight and i decided to take a risk and made a successful long trade with 2:1 risk reward ratio, my second sign of confluence was the divergence of price and volume illustrated by the orange trend lines. ideally i like 3 levels of confluence hence why this trade was a little riskier but occasionally calculated risk pays off. very much looking forward to seeing what gold does for the rest of this week, now that price has smashed through the 2000 level im hoping to see this level turn into support and push price gradually towards the 2080 level which would confirm either a completed abc pattern or a third elliot wave perhaps?

pretty key moment for gold right now and its pretty clear to see why. I published a long prediction on gold earlier this week highlighting a potential 5th elliot wave on the 4hr time frame which turned out to be correct and provided a profitable start to the week, upon scouting golds next move across different timeframes it seems we have a potentially larger elliot wave on the daily time frame developing as indicated by the blue trend lines. my bias right now is neutral as gold is once again approaching the market "ceiling" around the 2000 level so it will need something pretty significant to push through this strong level, however as i have mentioned in previous posts the time between price bouncing of the line and returning back is reducing which indicates an increasing interest to push through this level. im hoping that my analysis provides good insight and value to your own analysis and most importantly profit, but now i think is a good time to be patient and wait until some fresh data is published. feedback always welcome.

interesting situation developing on gold right now I believe I have identified a potential 5th Elliot wave with divergence offering extra confirmation, however my analysis is not 100% solid for the reasons i give below. so the Elliot wave pattern indicated with blue lines is very clear however the 4th wave is venturing into wave 1 territory which is an unbreakable rule of Elliot waves hence why im not absolutely convinced of future direction. In truth im also not 100% that the divergence is hidden bullish, there is clear divergence marked by the white trend lines though so price is definitely getting ready to move. However with all that being said based on previous price action and the line of support/resistance at the bottom of wave 4 swing low I do still believe the price is likely to continue up. if that is the case I would look to enter a position after a break of the psychological level at 1980.00, stop loss just below previous swing low and take profit around the 2010.00 level for a 2:1 risk reward ratio most likely price will make its move after the FOMC minutes data released tomorrow at 19:00 or the US durable goods orders on Wednesday at 13:30 either way im excited to see what happens.

looking for a good short opportunity on gold today based on the following ... gold has been in a range since the end of may but today marks the potential for a bearish breakout, Powell's fed testimony drops at 15:00 today which i believe will give the market the strength to make its next move. looking at recent price action we can clearly see the market making consistently lower highs lending bearish sentiment to market bias, at 11am yesterday price smashed through the psychological level at 1940 shortly after retesting the broken support and now looks to be moving down. so depending on the fed reports outcome i would look to enter short after a strong break through the 1920 level, trade targets are 2:1 rr ratio which means stop loss around 1950 and take profit at 1880 i always welcome feedback to improve my analysis so feel free to give some. ;)

gold is still looking bullish for now the uptrend shown by the three blue lines is still very much intact on the daily chart and indeed on the 4hr chart as well, we also have a decent size bullish flag/wedge pattern the top line of which was broken and has now turned into support showing further bullish bias, price has also formed a double bottom today rejecting almost perfectly off the 1980 level illustrated by the orange circles. the only thing that concerns me is that price is once again in very close proximity to the unbroken market "ceiling" at 2060 which points to two interesting facts, firstly that in the past price has made strong rejections off this level but perhaps more interesting is the fact that price took significantly less time to return to this level from the last rejection (around 180 days less) which given my still expanding knowledge of market/trend cycles means price could be returning more frequently to this area signaling a likely break through this level though i doubt it will happen in this particular cycle but later this year who knows? either way i will of course be looking to the economic headlines to lend weight to my analysis would love to hear from anyone who studies markets over longer terms as i am not as skilled in this area and would welcome some insight!