Orriginal

PA has finally risen above that Fib circle ( falling diagonal arc) that has rejected us since Early June. PA is currently retesting this as support now and we will hopefully manage to remain above. Should this fail, we have the lower trendline of the newly formed rising channel to use as support. Should that fail, we have the 236 Fib circle (Red) and the next rising support line around 102k, depending on sharp the drop is. If we find support where we are now, we have a good run back to the current ATH line ( Blue Dash line) The real test is that 236 Fib circle that is dropping form around 114K 99% of the Time, a 236 Fib circle is resistance and if it rejects PA, the Current ATH line is very close below. This will either create a bounce or a sharp drop. If we get stuck between the 2, we have that APEX around 25 July..PA always reacts BEFORE the Apex And I am back on the 19th Jully, just in time I hope ;-) So, The MACD is currently above neutral on the Daily (Below) The weekly is much the same but on the 4 hour, we are currently dropping towards Neutral and Tomorrow ( sunday) will tell us if it bounces or not. We are early in July, As mentioned in the monthly report I posted earlier this week, we could see a larger Green candle by month end, though is is not a promise obviously. But the MACD could support this idea We just have to wait and, for me, that is what we will do until around Q4 We could still see smaller gains over the summer period but the Bigger moves are in Q4 That is what I am waiting for....and yet, at the same time, I am ready if it comes earlier stay safe

The Chart Clearly explains itself Since before Bitcoin PA went into its current channel, it was under a Huge Arc that resisted any move higher...strongly, Every single ATH, Every one, even the most recent This is Easily seen by the Blue Arc And as you can see, maybe THIS is the real reason why PA is struggling to break higher....It just cannot break over that Arc. The main chart is Monthly, Lets look at the weekly. https://www.tradingview.com/x/wuiyICjX/ You can clearly see what happened in 2021, rejected twice and again this cycle. And you can see how, by December This year, 2025, PA will be squeezed very tight. And PA usually moves before the APEX> And, if we are going to repeat the previous cycle moves, the 1st year after a New ATH usually sees a decline in price, as can be seen by the red boxes. But PA needs to break OVER that Arc first. and then remain ABOVE IT. This would then create a new cycle pattern. And we need it. Currently, we can go back to Lows of 88K before we loose support on that lower trendline but from there, we need to break over. A Strong move in SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER would be Ideal Just saying

At the beginning of June , I wrote this ""On only 2 occasions have we had a GREEN JAN, RED FEB, RED MARCH, GREEN APRIL And Both of them were on the way to ATH. (Boxes ) On both those occasions we also had a GREEN MAY, though the gains were minimal and one was followed by a Green June and the other by a Red June." We just got the GREEN June and so this draws my eye to the sequence on the left, ( arrow ) If we are to follow this, then July should be a larger Green (Arrow) - BULLISH In-fact, in both the sequences we have been following ( boxes), July was GREEN- BULLISH And using just the month candle colours, we have a higher chance of another Green candle, with July having had 9 Green to 4 Red previously. - BULLISH However Of the previous 8 Green June Closes , only 3 went to a Green July - BEARISH And I have to say, on NONE of the previous Green Junes were we so close to the current ATH. July 2021 being the closest with a price at 41K, around 18K below the current ATH at the time. We are currently only around 200 usd below Current ATH This adds enormous resistance to the ability to rise I wanted a RED June because I felt it was more sustainable and would lead to a cycle ATH at the end of the year. As can be seen in the middle Box If we look back toward the 2012 Box on the left, we may now get a Hot July / August , September and then a Cool off for October, November & December. But something tells me this will not happen. The Candles for our current cycle in April, May and June are diminishing in size, the opposite of 2012 But they are similar to the 2020 box, except for the red June close. This could lead to the desired "Cooling" in August & September and a new lift off in autumn. And if you look at the chart Candle Colour Count, , August and September are usually RED by some majority This also gives us the Bigger Green July candle that the "Odds" point towards. So, as ever, we have to wait and see how this plays out. Odds in favour of a Green July using previous cycle Data PA position just below current ATH could lead to a slightly Bearish out look in the short term. And if you are hoping to see ALTS Rally, PLEASE keep your eye on the BTC.D chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/YUmNbWbM/ This also points to wards BTC ATH in Q4 this year And then, we have the BIG question.......Will we ever see a Classix Bear again ? With so many Holding Bitcoin LongTerm.....How would a Bear market arrive ? BUY BITCOIN HOLD BITCOIN But, as ever, we just have to wait and see,

Bitcoin is once again getting rejected off the Fib circle just above. This is also just under a 618 Fib extension and so a combined rejection zone. Beneath this, we have support on that Bold dashed line. This is a Local line of supprt but has strength. And so, we find outselves in apennant again and that apex is around 22 July. PA tracts before the apex. As will be explained in the monthly chart I iwll post later, this all points towards a Calm July, possibly RED month. PA does however, have the ability and strength to push higher if the Bulls decide to make a move. The MACD https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y8DirHm0/ The Daily MACD is just above Neutral and has enough room to move. So, if we drop, support is arouns 103K If we loose that then 100K and then we land on that red 236 Fib circle that will offer a sliding line of support. But I do not think we will get there just yet Enjoy

PA has been trying to get over that bold trendline since Feb 2024. It is the same line that PA used back in 2021, to bounce up to the Cycle ATH in Nov 2021. And we have begun th e week just on Top of it, as we can see in the Zoomed in version of the chart below. https://www.tradingview.com/x/O6ijCXUq/ This week is a Big one in many ways. We also have the Month close today and currently, we have a Big Green candle for that . If we close with that, historically, it points towards an unsettled summer or a Big push en-route. More on that tomorrow. The weekly MACD still has room to climb but I still think we are to see a repeat of where that arrow points. Th weekly RSI is also in Mid ground and can move in either direction One thing that has really caught my eye however, is the Volume Delta https://www.tradingview.com/x/JNt1wig8/ See how this is reducing - Could this be the Calm before the Storm ? And that storm could be Bullish or Bearish. We do have a number of lines of resistance overhead that could prove difficult. So, hang in there. My personal opinion is that we are going to see apull back in the near future,,,,,and if we close the month green today, that WILL be next week

PA is approaching TOP OF RANGE again It it get rejected, it is another LOWER HIGH that may lead to another LOWER LOW If we break through, we may watch a higher high but we need to see if we get a Higher Low afterwards to confirm change of Trend The Falling channel has a number of boundaries. PA has the ability to move higher. This appears to be a Bullish move for now. So we need to wait till month end. Again, I am hoping for a small RED candle for the month A small Green candle could lead to many options that would be Fragile and unfounded

As the title says, BTC PA has fallen back in channel that offers a potential low in the High 80K should confidence fail. PA also lost support on the Local 2.618 Fib extension. This is a shame and poses potential problems reclaiming that. I will say, that I do not consider this a long term Bearish beginning but it could certainly add to the "Calm" Summer I have talked about. I say "Calm", that does depend on the world not entering a level of Madness. The Zoomed chart below shows more detail https://www.tradingview.com/x/wELyBGOo/ Here we can see clearly how PA got rejected off that upper trend line, fell through the 2.618 and is currently being rejected by it. The potential for a further drop does exist and if we repeat the "Pattern" we have since the beginning of 2024, of bounce off Lower trend line, get rejected from Upper zone, re test lower as support and bounce again, we can expect to revisit 89K This idea is supported from this LINEAR Daily chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/vKITtDzS/ The dashed Trend line that is arrowed has origin in Sep 2024 and was also used again in April 2025. That intersection the arrow points to is the intersection with the current supporting Fib circle at around 88500 USD None of this is certain but these levels exist as support. PA also has the ability to move higher The Weekly MACD below shows us how MACD is turning down towards its signal line ( red) We did this before in Jan 2024 ( Arrow) and The MACD bounced. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2Jtkq95q/ We talked about this possibility a few weeks ago But on a Daily MACD, things do look a little different. The FEB 2024 looked like this, Bullish, rising and above Neutral https://www.tradingview.com/x/nw4hvLWN/ Currently, the Daily MACD looks like this https://www.tradingview.com/x/CAoNM3Rh/ We just fell below Neutral and the Signal line just hit it We may seea bounce but we need to have the idea that this may continue to drop a little further. But the White bar on the Histogram shows us some recovery is currently in progress We will have to watch the rest of this month closely. This time next week is last day of month. I have mentioned a number of times that a small RED Month candle would be potentialy good. We are currently Only just GREEN, so a further Drop in price is actually almost expected this week. Interesting days ahead

We talked about this possibility on Friday and now it seems to be happening We have support and we will hopefully Hold on that Fib extensiona nd risong line pf support. The madness in the world right now , however, may decide to try and crash markets If you decide to sell out, AVOID THE $ Me , I will remain Holding for a while longer

This will be the main chart and 3 indicators that could be telling us something. Main chart is the Heiken Ashi. Each candle starts in the centre of the previous one and so we get rid of noise and get a good understanding of possible Trends. And Right now, CALM is not the word ! Candles are getting smaller and smaller. However, we do seem to be forming a bullish pennant with an Apex at the end of the month. PA always reacts before the Apex. Other things to note here is that we are now using the previous line of resistance as support. Look back to Dec 2024 to Feb 2025. It was this line that put as back down to 75K We have tested this 4 times in a small way But not in a real Meaningful Way yet. Do remain Cautious.......but that 2.518 Fib extension should hold us in place if we drop but there could be a much deeper drop. But lets take this step by step as there are some Very Bullish signs to. The ADX chart below shows us that Change is near. https://www.tradingview.com/x/PZIDlCwr/ Remember, ADX ( yellow ) NEVER shows trend direction, just trend strength. As you can see, it rarely drops much further below this point and does not spend to long here. SO, current trend is Weak and a new trend is likely in the near future ( this could be tomorrow or in 3 weeks..near future is a wide window..but it is not 2 months or more) The DI + ( orange ), positive Directional price Index, and the DI - ( red) , negative Directional price Index, are also low, showing no real price action. This can happen for longer periods of time and it is impossible to say which will rise, However, as we can see, the price movements have not been huge and so to expect a sudden Massive Dive, as some are suggesting, is not really backed by anything. But we should never say never. Be cautious Accumulation / Distribution chart below https://www.tradingview.com/x/sEzaHJQR/ What is nice about this, is simply that Accumulation is still the MAJOR movement. The majority are still accumulating and so the idea that we maybe in a Bear market is almost Dismissed. People would not accumulate an asset that is about to Dive for a long eriod of time....Normally. There has been distribution, as marked by the RED zones. This is heavier distribution and as you can see, this Stopped at the beginning of this month, having begun when we reached the high towards end of 2024. So many thought that was cycle ATH They have seen the error of their ways BUT, Again, remain Cautious till we see a bigger move higher. And now my favorite, MACD https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qc880wk1/ And for me, this is where we will see the decision being made. We are approaching the Neutral zone Last time we bounced off this area was in October 2024 and we went from 70K to 109K BUT remain cautious, we have every possibility that we may fall through the neutral zone for a while too....But we are in an area that could show us a time to move. This is a LINEAR Bitcoin Daily chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/dJJd269c/ And those descending lines are FIB Circles and you can see how PA often runs along them. You can also see how we are in a Pinch, a tight Squeeze right now ( arrow) with Horizontal line of support and the rejecting red 236 Fib circle. That Apex is, again, at the end of the month. So, to conclude, we are certainly heading towards a Move and possibly a new trend. I like to think this will be Bullish but there are plenty f reasons for Caution. I will remain with my Monthly charts that suggest June may be RED and that after than we will see more Green. A Dip is possible and I have New Buy orders around 98K incase PA wicks down to them but there is NO guarantee this will happen...OR if it does, that it will stop there.... We just have to be prepared. Stay safe98230 hit

The Growing question is just how much does the American Federal Reserve interest rate changes effect Bitcoin. We can see how in 2022, it appears they did but from late 2022 and early 2023, it doesn't seem to. Bitcoin began its rise even while rates were being put up. The Fundimental Key points may have had more impact but again, there are moments were we can see something that should have been Great for BTC, had little effect and Visa Versa. Has Bitcon Truly Broken away from being effected by the worlds "largest" economy ? We are currently seeing the ever growing threat of WW3 and Rates being Kept artificially High by the US Fed Reserve. The EU Central banks has already reduced its rate twice while the USA remained with no change ) And Bitcoin remains stable. And Bitcoins international adoption continues. STACK SATS