Orriginal

I have been talking about the Blue Arc of resistance for a while now. The ARC that has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin began its true rise in Value back in 2011. I am not going to get to technical right now as I have had only 1 coffee..lol.. Lets begin I have 3 charts with this Arc on , all slightly different so as to allow for small errors in plotting or calculation. ALL charts now show PA Above the Arc. Why is this so important ? As previously explained, that Blue Arc is a part of a Calculated Fibonacci Spiral. Calculated from Each ATH to the next and using the difference as a part of that calculation, I was able to pinpoint the centre of this Arc. And here is the Full picture. What I am finding a little interesting is how that centre is on MARCH 2020 - That Sudden and worrying COVID CRASH ! But that is a subject for another time. The Two important things to take of here is how PA began rising on this spiral as soon as PA entered it ( Left ) and unless we broke out of it now, PA would have been dragged back down by December. The time spent inside this spiral are the cumulative years of Bitcoin. It is also very interesting how the 3 "Cycles " we have had in this channel. have ended perfectly at that intersection of the Blue Arc and the underlying line of support, that PA has not dropped below since we entered the channel back in 2012 To me, that is more than just a coincidence. And if we look at a smaller time frame, we can see that PA has broken over this Arc, with strength. The Daily chart above does show us that we do still have challenges ahead. For instance, there is that line of local resistance just above, that could , under the right circumstances, push PA back down with vengeance should the Bears take over. But I do not think that will happen yet but it would be nice if we could climb over that and use it as support. We have done on 2 previous occasions this cycle but each time, we got pushed back under. 3rd time lucky ? The 4 hour chart gives hope. Here we can see how that Blue Arc was used as support but once it failed, the Bulls were Quick to get back over. To me, this shows us that the Bulls have every intention of keeping Bitcoin High and above that Blue Arc. But the longer we wait to get over that local line of resistance above, and use as support, the further away it Gets. Currently, the Target to get over that lline is around 140K Near Term projections of PA, in a bullish run, are around 160K -> 180K This would give PA that underlying line of support. So, we wait to see how this plays out but THE MOST IMPORTANT THING ? We Must remain above that line, the Blue Arc....that currently sits around 115 -118K The Next Few weeks are VITAL and I remind you..August has nearly twice as many RED monthly closes as Green..Unless it is in a Bull run....;-) The Daily RSI has room to move still but is High The Weekly RSI is Similar in hieght, with room to move. So, We could be in a good position to start that New Cycle type, out of the Spiral that Created Bitcoin as we now know it. The 4 year Flow could change as mass adoption takes pace and People simply do not Buy / Sell as we used to do. But it is impossible to really know whats coming. We can only watch and learn. We may well end up having the 4 year cycles again. After all, that gave us superb profit making opportunities. Or will Bitcoin become the Store of Value, the Digital Gold ? Time will tell. Have a good week and stay safe

The descending diagonal "line" is another of those 618 Fib circles. You can see very clearly on this chart what happened the last 2 occasions PA hit one of these. I have little reason to expect things to be any different this time. As a result, we could revisit 107K HOWEVER, we do have the 50 day SMA just below, around 112K, and this could act as support in which case, we will continue to rise through the Fib circle. To some extents, this idea is supported by the daily MACD Currently bouncing off Neutral and with plenty of room to move higher. The 4 hour is also rising Bullish But the Daily RSI is showing possibilities for Both RSI has risen above its average ( yellow line), having been rejected by it repeatably recently.....We need to watch this also to see if it finds support or not. So we have an open Chance of Bullish or Bearish this weekend and my opinion heads towards the short term Bearish till PA hits lower trend line, due to this Fib circle.. I remain Extremely Bullish longer term Have a great weekend Lets see

It is VERY clear to see and some just do not want to see it That Blue Arc, Arrowed, is an Arc that has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin began rising from its early Low. And also understand, that arc is not just a random line, It is Calculated and is part of a Fibonacci Spiral. ANYWAY, as we can see on the chart. PA is heading to a Squeeze with this Arc and a rising line of support below. This line of support has NEVER failed since PA crossed over it. So we have a n arc of Resistance that has Never been broken. We have a line of support that has Never been Broken. One of these two line Has to break. The Apex of this Squeeze us Dec this year and, as we all know, PA always react before the Apex. So, How accurate is the placement of this Arc ? Lets see the Daily chart Here we can see that PA has for most of this year, been trying to break over and, in July, succeeded, only to fall back below a week ago. To many extents this played along Very well with the monthly Candle Colour patterns I been posting. But the fact remains, we are once again BELOW a HUGE powerful line of resistance that we MUST break above and stay above. We do have many lines of Support below, Local and some, longer term. We can close on the 4 hour just to see where we are in a more local time frame. Here, we can see that 105K is a very possible line of support initially that we need to watch and see what happens. Hopefully, we range above this level and let RSI cool off. The RSI is always a great gauge to watch here and the daily offers some hope of remaining in this current PA range It must be said that RSI could still drop lower, though we have room to rise before PA becomes OverBought on the Daily. But the weekly shows us a longer term CAUTION flag. While we have not been OverBought on the weekly for a long time, we ARE up high, leaving the potential for a Drop. But with the Daily in good shape, this could be postponed. In this cycle, previous times we got overbought, PA ranged while RSI dropped. This could repeatover and over........But PA needs to rise OVER that line of resistance and turn it into Support. This is NOT a choice//it is a MUST HAPPEN if Bitcoin is to continue its rise higher. The current Price line of this Blue Arc is around 116K. What we realy need to understand about this Arc is that once we pass December 2025, that arc begins to DROP. And if PA is below it still, PA will get dragged down with it, into an ever decreasing price model. So, there we have it Simple as that.

As mentioned previously, these are traditionaly used to find Entries into a market and so far, this has been the case again. We have dipped to 112K so far and as yu can see, we can go to 103K with ease, should this be allowed by the Bulls. I will say, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Loss ) chart has offered a Bull wanting caution flag.. And yet, on the lower time frames, it has just also posted a Good Bull entry point. This indicates Excellent entry points, Buying opportunities Yes, PA may drop lower yet, but not massive ones. It is an excellent example of ow to "Scale in" Do not use all your money in one trade. Use 20%, wait, see where thelmarket goes. Buy again when ready. This way, once your lowest Buy price goes into profit, it also starts to cancel out he losses on the other, higher priced Buys....and by the time all your recent buys are in profit, you are exponentially getting better profits. For me, I am waiting to see if we arrive at the 110K zone before starting this, once the current FVG is filled. Have a noce sunday

If you look back at the last time I posted a chart with Free Value Gaps ( FVG ) you will see an orange bar where PA currently sits...The reason it is no longer there is because it ogt "Filled" It is much the sameidea as CME Gaps. Thay also get filled very often/ So, we can see 2 more FVG before 107K line and so, in the current market state and with the knowledge that in August, Markets often Dip, we may well see PA retreat to the Gap at 109K What a superb buying oppertunity End of post as I am enjoying an evening in the south of France, with wine and Fun.. What it stopping you ?

We got the expected GREEN July and so, amazingly, we continue to repeat the pattern from January to July 2012. ( Left Box ) It is almost the same pattern as 2020, apart from the Red May candle in that Year. (Right box) The Large Arrow points towards another occasion where we had a series of consecutive Green candles from March to July, though these candles sizes are nothing like the ones we are currently experiencing. The Boxes show us The only 2 occasions where we have had a Green December, Red January, Red February, Green March, Green April. Then we had a Green May 2012 and a Red May 2020 Then both repeated a Green June, Green July. The thing to note here is how all these are en-route to Cycle Highs. So, August count currently is 5 Green to 9 Red, so the Odds are, while looking at BTC History, that we will get a RED August HOWEVER, if we continue this run of following previous patterns, we will see a GREEN August. In fact, 3 of those 5 Green August closes were in these 3 patterns mentioned. Every single one of the 5 Green previous August followed a Green July, the last time was in 2021. As mentioned in last months report, the size of the candles currently in this pattern are more like those in 2020 than the other 2 patterns talked about here. With this in mind, we may expect a smaller Green candle close for August , Followed by a small Red candle in September. This did also happen in 2017 ( Arrow). This August has opened Red but so far this year, many month opens were red and then changed. So, My expectation id for a small Green August as markets cool off over the holidays and we wait for the start of Q4 in October. We will have to wait and see as ever Stay safe

After we heard the US Federal Reserve hold rates yesterday, Markets Fell some. And Bitcoin joined them for a couple of hours but Look now. While the $ falls, the S&P Falls, GOLD is the traditional haven of safety and we can see how it Rose in Value over the last 12 hours The $ has Fallen over the last 8 hours S&P Stalled for the last 24 hours And the STRONGEST positive moves over the last 12 hours were from BITCOIN rising, though it is taking a breather for the moment. SO, has it become a SAFE HAVEN ? Put it like this. Bitcoin has NOT lost value like it used to when under pressure. We have yet to see what would happen once it reaches its cycle Top. Will it retreat as it has historicaly... But for now, it does seem to be a strong store of Value and remains with potential and likelihood of further rises. The TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP chart below This shows us that the investor market seems Very confident in the Crypto Market,,Just going from strength to strength. The TOTAL 2 Market Cap chart shows us something very interesting. The TOTAL2 chart is the Total Market Cap MINUS BITCOIN Compare the 2 charts and you will see how the TOTAL chart has risen way over its previous cycle ATH but the TOTAL2 is currently being rejected off its previous ATH line. This clearly shows us that BITCOIN is the strength in the Crypto Market. It is the same story on the TOTAL3 chart ( TOTAL minus BTC & ETH ) It is the same on the OTHERS chart ( Top 125 coins minus top 10 by market Cap ) BITCOIN CARRIES THE MARKET These are early days but the Future of Bitcoin does seem VERY good So far this cycle, the largest retrace was -31% This drop was NOT a sharp Drop over a short period of time. It was an expected and controlled drop over 112 days. But the zoomed out version of that chart tells us something VERY GOOD PA has risen above and Tested and held that line of resistance that had rejected PA at Cycle Top ATH in 2017 and 2021. That is a HUGE move and we wait to see if we Hold and move higher away from this line. SO, Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven ? It is certainly looking more and more like it. PA is secure, has held position well and is in Price discovery...slowly and with caution...but always moving forward. The traditional 4 yeat Cycle would end in late Q4 this year and so we have to wait and see what happens then. But Bitcoin PA has moved into New ground on so many fronts now. The traditinal BEAR market may not appear, in which case, YES, Bitcoin could become a New SAFE HAVEN Buy Bitcoin Hold Bitcoin

When you look on 1 hour or 4 hour charts, our hearts miss a beat... "Bitcoin is Crashing" But as you can see on a weekly chart, it really is nothing more than a little hiccup...not even that ! We can drop to 110K before you need t really watch This cycle has seen so many similar instances. But we do need to be alert to make sure this fall does on continue for what ever reason But when we remember that on Wednesday, the FED gives us the rate decision for the USa, it all becomes clear, because this happens almost everytime before a rate decision is announced. The chart above is the daily smapshot of a weekly chart I have been posting since 2021, about Rate Announcements by the FED. You can see the red candles before each occasion, the Red vertical lines being approx the day the FED announced the decision. ( Approx as it is a weekly chart normaly and I do not "Zoomin" to get the day count perfectly as it becomes lost when I came back out to a week chart) But you get the idea do not panic This is the weekly chart of that FED RATE effects in Bitcoin PA....over all..NO EFFECT The effect has always been on the companies that can provide bitcoin So, Keep your Cool. anf HOLD BITCOIN

No Guesses which one. Bitcoin printing a Bullish pennant on the daily with the Apex late this Wednesday, After the FED tell us what they are doing with interest rates PA always reacts before the Apex. ETh on the other hand, is under a Huge area of long therm resistance and running out of steam If we zoom out to the weekly, we can see how long this line has rejected PA My money remains in Bitcoin, whihc has also made gains over the weekend. And is highly likley to remain there

There is a saying- "Charts NEVER lie" And here it is ETH USDT Weekly chart, suggesting that, right now, ETH is up against resistance that has rejected it more times than it has been support. The RSI on this chart also suggests a pull back is coming Again, RSI has been rejected in this range more times than it found support Conclusion -WAIT before you buy and see if it crosses that line of resistance and tests it as support before you spend your money Just saying