Orriginal

Bitcoin is in a Rising channel after dropping.This can be easily called a BEAR FLAG and it needs to be paid attention to for a number of reasons.The line of support that held PA up in May is now close overhead resistance and we are climbing towards an apex around 11 June.PA always reacts before APEXI would expect this to happen from the 8th June but could obviously happen before.I can see PA dropping to around 102K, on the POC ( red dotts ) off the VRVPWe will have to see what happens form there but there is a strong line of support just below this.The 4 hour MACD is currently being rejected from Neutral back down into oversold.https://www.tradingview.com/x/2Yu6cQqE/The Daily MACD is continuing to fall Bearish and will reach neutral bu the weekend, the 7thThis could be the beginning of a longer term Bearish move and could end up back in the mid 95K before it finishes over the next 8 weeksHOWEVER, PA does have the ability to turn the tables on the newly woken BearsWe will have to take this a step at a time right now.But as emtioned in apost earlier today, I do expect us to NOT move to much higher in the near future but more to range once again, maybe for up to 8 - 10 WeeksWe shall see and watching the Dominance chars right now is a VERY good idea

May Closed GREEN, and We are currently on a Very small Green candle for the month open.Last month, in this series of monthly charts posts, I mentioned this.."On only 2 occasions have we had a GREEN JAN, RED FEB, RED MARCH, GREEN APRILAnd Both of them were on the way to ATH. ( Arrows )On both those occasions we had a GREEN MAY, though the gains were minimal and one was followed by a Green June and the other by a Red June."And we just closed May with a minimal GREEN candle.This is important to understand, This month, we have a 50/50 chance of repeating the Green June candle in this pattern.Outside of this pattern, The previous MAY closes, 7 Green to 6 Red.Of the 7 Green, 5 were followed by a Green JuneWith this, we have a higher % chance of a Green JuneOf All previous June Closes, we had 7 Green to 6 Red.Of those 7 previous Green June Closes, 3 were followed by GREEN JulyOf the 6 previous RED Junes, ALL were followed by GREEN JulyWith this in mind, we maybe in a better position if we did close June with a small RED candle, as we did in the 2020 sequence ( right hand Arrow)Should we close June RED, I will then expect a fairly level summer period with PA beginning to start moving again around September / OctoberBitcoin PA is in an excellent position to move higher now though. It is also in an excellent position to move away from previous cycle patterns and begin creating new one.We do have to remain vigilant as markets are moving everywhere and Macro conditions could change rapidlyBut the one thing that seems to remain static is that it is a VERY GOOD IDEA to Buy Bitcoin and HOLD IT

Been warning you about this Fib circle coming up and now we know it is resistance... but how strong ?We do not know just yet but we can lok to the left to see what happened last time.Over pn the left, we can See PA droped for 7 days bwfore breaking away.This could happen again and support is below.The 4 hour chart gives us a better insighthttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bMNjDmxn/PA has already found the first line of support and we currently have a small green candle.Further support below at 104700 and 101700If they fail, we have the 2.618 Fib extension at 98200 - This should be a strong line of supportIf that fails, there is ther support and I will talk abou tthat when the time comes.It is wise to be cautious with Bitcoin right now as the 4 hour and Daily MACD are Bearish.This could change anytime and the Bullish "Sentiment" still existsBitcoin Dominance is dipping again but has the strength to bounce, so be cautious with the ALTShttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qdMRDSdR/More Soon

We can start with the main chart.This is a LONG TERM LINEAR chart, showing the price action Directly, unaltered by mathmatics,Long Term charts usualy are shown by logarithmic charts.Linear and logarithmic trading charts differ in how they represent price changes. Linear charts display equal price changes the same, making them suitable for short-term traders focusing on exact price movements. On the other hand, logarithmic charts show percentage changes, which makes them better for long-term investors or volatile assets, as they help in analyzing trends and patterns more clearly over time.This chart starts just before the 2017 ATH and you can easily see the line that rejects ATH and how PA is up near that area right now.Things to note are the day count from 2017 ATH to 2021 Final ATH and the day count between that double Top in 2021.These numbers are projected to our current cycle and show we are near the projected Top using this style of Chatr, The Log charts project further into the year.It may also be worth noting how the 50 EMA (red) was used by PA after the Drop after the first ATH, to bounce back up to the next ATH at the end of that year.We have just done exactly the same again, PA was rejected by that long term Line and Dipped down to the 50 EMA and has since bounced back up to the rejecting line.IS REJECTION LIKELY NOW?[/bThis is something that is impossible to answer with any real Fact But we can look at data and make eductaed projections.PA has the ability and strength right now, to range high, running up under this line of rejection until it becomes overbought on the long term MACD, RSI , TSI etcBut something that will absolutely decide when the top is in is the Profit taking by Holders.We are currently seeing Selling taking place and we can see the potential profit by looking at NUPLNUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, is an indicator used in trading to measure the difference between unrealized profits and losses in the Bitcoin market. Here is the chart from all the way back to 2010https://www.tradingview.com/x/sgvgV8Xm/Lots to see here but to summerise.See how there are Peaks each cycle of Maximum available profit. The point where profit taking Tops out is arrowed. This area, up to the red line, shows us the TOP zone.What is VERY noticable this cycle is how we have not yet reached that upper Red line.Sellers appear to be taking theor profits earlier.The upper day counts have been consistant in the past, with 2 double tops of potential profit before the selling sold it all off.Many people, including me, have been saying "This time is different" and this is VERY clearly shown here by the fact that we have already had the 2 peaks of potential profit and we are currently climbing to the 3rdThis has NEVER happened before and, technicaly, this could continue.The Lower day counts are from Mid Double Tops to the Next Mid double top of potential profits mentioned above,The Next "Mid point" is projected to be around July.This NUPL also shows ua how the high level of potentia profits was reached Quicker this cycle than previously. This was helped by the Corporations buying Early and Massive amounts, putting Large numbers of coins into profitIn Conclusion[/iWe have the Linear Bitcoin chart pointing towards a JULY / August TopWe have the NUPL also pointing towards a July / August Mid point of Potential profits.If you loo cloely, BOTH charts, using differnet data, suggest 28 JulyWhat also maybe worth considering here is how we see that Potential profits are reducing in availability. As the asset becomes more expensive to buy, it also gets harder to push the price higher and so make more profit. I,E. It was eaier to double the price of Bitcoin when it was $50 a coinOf course, non of this may play out, Things ARE DIFFERNT but I have now decided to have another plan ready for August and we need to wait and see what happens NextBE PREPARED FOR ALL POSSIBILITIES

As I rite this, we see PA pushing up under a line of local resistance, and being rejected.Support is not far below on the old ATH line ( blue Dash) and below that we have the rising trned line at around 107KSo we have support all around but we are heading in to the unknown with this Fib circle that is just ahead of us. As yet, I do not know what to expect.Previous 618 Fib circles have rejected PA to some degree and so I will expect at least a dip in Price.But as the MACD is nicely cooled off and rising Bullish just above Neutral, we certainly have the ability to piush throughhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4bnYJxjf/So, We enter the unknown today but with Bullish intent and the ability to cope but we do need Caution.

These are all WEEKLY chart7 weeks in a row closed Green.At Time of writing, Bitcoin is around 109800 usdSo Very Bullish and every possibility that this week will also close Green though we are getting near a point of resistance. If we zoom into the same chart, we can see more detailhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CdflV5kT/We are above the 2.618 Fib extension and we could return to the 103K zone to test this as support. We may need to do this as it has only ever been resistance previously.We are also very close to a 618 Fib circle.( Blue )We do not know if this is an area of strong resistance yet but PA is now in the area that we may react to it.As a result of this Fib circle, we need to be prepared for the possibility of reentering that rising channel, We may not do that ,The reasons being that PA still has enough strength.The MACD - or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is a technical analysis tool used in trading to identify momentum and trend direction.https://www.tradingview.com/x/jlHzDr1B/The 2 vertical lines on the left are the 2021 ATH points, to give a comparison. In this cycle we have had 2 previous peaks and then the cooling off period from OverBought.The Cooling off were the periods were BTC PA ranged..We are currently rising Bullish, with room to move higher but we should be aware that we are in the area that rejected the 2nd ATH in 2021. The daily is in a very similar position but getting choppy.The RSI - Relative Strength Index, a technical indicator used to understand the momentum of a price trend . The RSI helps signal when to buy and sell in a trending market by identifying overbought or oversold conditions in a security.https://www.tradingview.com/x/QG9fV72y/Again, the Vertical lines on the left show you the 2021 ATH points as reference.See how RSI peaks before BTC PA Peaks.We have not been fully OverBought since March 2024. RSI is rising Bullish with Room to move higher, though, again, note how it is in an area were rejection has occurred previously.The Mayer Multiple is a ratio used in trading that compares the current market price of an asset, such as Bitcoin, to its 200-day moving average (SMA) price. This indicator is particularly useful for swing traders to find zones of extreme overbuys and It is generally considered a bullish indicator when the price is above the long-term moving average ( Yellow ) and bearish when the price is below it, although significant deviations from the moving average can indicate overvaluation or undervaluation.https://www.tradingview.com/x/XHa3yTAM/Again, take note of the vertical lines and were this Mayer Multiple was.Again, the tendency is that when this Drops, BTC PA has Ranged to cool off and when it crosses above its Average, it leads to a High on the push higher.And once again, remembering what has been said above, we need to wait to see if this crosses its average or get rejected by it.But as you can see, the Average is more often used as support amd mpt resistance.So, in conclusion, I remain Bullish but with a note of Caution till we get a push higher conformed.We could see a pull back and , if that happens, this maybe the last sensible buying Zone for Bitcoin this time round. The Risk is increasing as more and more coins enter into good profit margins. People may get tempted to sell.On a longer term , this month has confirmed a very bullish intent and we have one week to go before month end. I will expand on this on 2nd JuneThis week. we wait and see how Bitcoin will react.Be Kind to others. The world Needs LOVE

BITCOIN still in that target circle, first posted in Feb 2025, and I expect to remain here till early June.This daily chart shows us where exactly we sit in the circle.https://www.tradingview.com/x/HkWn7R1t/There are a number of reasons why we may remain here a little longer but one thing to always look at is the MACD.The Weekly is still rising Bullish with room to move higherThe Daily is choppy and currently just fallen below its Signal linehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fXJU6XxK/We need to watch this area as between the MACD and its Histogram, we could see a Strong Bearish DivergenceThe shorter term 4 hour shows how support in approachinghttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J80iBmPP/The habit has been for MACD to bounce off Neutral line but if we look at that Histogram, we can see the volatility there and so this could point to a weaker reaction in the near future.In conclusion, the potential for a drop lower exists but the lower time frame MACD can also show us that some support is available maybeLines of support for BTC PA suggest a Low of around 105K should curent support fail.Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is currently rising again while the others are dropping.If BTC PA Drops while this is rising, ALTS will Bleed heavyContinued Range is the likely option till we reach June and then, Mid June, 18th, we have the FED Rate decision. This could trigger renewed reaction.We have reentered a zone of upmost CAUTION till we get some stronger momentum signals

A qiuck return to the chart I been using most oftenBitcoin 4 hourMACD turned BEarishhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/X1kwlLwh/This is likely to drop to neutral at least before turning bullish againThe Daily MACD is still rising Bullish but turning down towards the Red signal line.Push hhigher For Bitcoin price unliekly this weekend but possible...As you can see, BTC PA has found support on a olcal rising line and is near the old ATH line.That old ATH line needs to be reclaimedUltimately, PA could drop back to lower trend line around 105K but the Bulls have snapped PA back up from the recent dip, as seen on the long lower wick on the current candle.Realisticaly, we have not even begun a push higher just yet, not until we get through that Fib circle above AND cool off the indicators I mentioned in the post earlier todayBut this does show intent.......Do Not Panic if the Price drops further, to many extents, it needs to and depending on the Bitcoin Dominance chart, this could lead to further gains in the ALT market.ENJOY

I will be presenting a number of charts here and each has a different story to tell right now.The 5 lines are All valid trend lines.The Vertical lines are January year markersThe white line at the bottom is th e long term support line from 2013The Dotted line is a threshold line The Blue Arc is a line that has rejected EVERY ATH since 2013The orange line is a marker that, once crossed has Always led to a New cycle ATHThe upper dashed line is the line of rejection of all ATH since 2017The Weekly Bitcoin PA charthttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oLf1fkWL/Here we can clearly see how that Blue Arc has rejected PA previously. We can see how PA has reached a point of intersection and once it crosses that blue Arc, there is a line of rejection just above.This Blue line needs to be crossed and held as support.The Daily version of this chart shows ua how we have just crossed that blue Arc.https://www.tradingview.com/x/hb57fpVT/It also shows us how FRAGILE this is right now. PA is currently testing that Blue line as supportThis needs to Hold. If we manage to hold this line and bounce, Stiff resistance is found around 120KThe following charts are showing the following indicatorsThe 3 indicators used are RSI - Relative Strength Index. used to measure the speed and change of price movementsTSI - True Strength Index, used to indicate trend direction and overbought/oversold conditions. ADX - The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure the strength of a trend, not its directionThe 4 hour chart - short term expectations for the weekendBitcoin PA the Yellow line at the Top, the indicators are in the order listed above, https://www.tradingview.com/x/dyfEt0K2/First thing to see here is how BTC PA is retesting that Blue Arc - this really needs to holdRSI (blue) - OVER BOUGHT, It has fallen below its own MA ( average) and could easily drop further today. Looking back along this, we can see how the 4 hour RSI likes to range along the Neutral line, so we may see it drop back to that level today, tomorrowTSI is also OVER BOUGHT. We can see when TSI is up here, PA ranges while it cools off. But there is room for one little push here if requiredADX ( yellow ) is high showing trend could be getting near exhausted, The orange line is the DI+. This shows positive prince direction, the Red one is DI- and shows that negative price direction is climbing slightly. In the short term, we need to see PA hold above the Blue line but the likelihood is to possibly back below. There is support below.The WEEKLY shows us that PA has the ability to continue for a while longer but we are getting near a point where PA needs to recoverhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LYXjIjJq/Here we can see how the RSI and TSI are both up high, on the edge of OVER BOUGHT but with the ability to rise further.What is VERY important to take note of here is that ADX.It is Low, this is indicating that the weekly Trend has lost strength now. It could continue lower.Remember, ADX DOES NOT SHOW TREND DIRECTION, JUST STRENGTHSo, the thing to see here is that we are in an area where we could see a New Trend begin. This trend could be either Bullish or bearishOn a weekly chart, this change can take a long time to appear in PAAnd for the Longer Term, The Monthly Chart gives us hope for a fuhrer push higher for the rest of the year but one little warning bellhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ePIo4AcW/WE See Both RSI and TSI up high again, where they have been since 2024. But neither of them are up in OVER BOUGHT as much as they have been in previous cucle Tops.... So we can assume room to move higher.But what does ring a bell is that ADX again. It is once again, in a place of Change and on this chart, showing that the current trend can start becoming weaker. However, DI+ has plenty of room to move higherSo, in conclusion, we see that BITCOIN has the ability to continue higher but in the short term, we may see a pause and possinle VolatilityTrends are about to change, This could take Weeks and PA can continue higher while a trend weakens.For me. we are in the last few months of this cycle and at a point of Decision.PA MUST get over that Blue Arc that has rejected Every ATH since 2013.If PA fails this, we go back to sub 90K but this is unlikely,There are numerous projections that see BTC PA in price discovery reaching the 120K before serious resistance.On this chart, if PA follows pattern and trends, we could see 378K by year endGetting over that irange line is KEYStay safe everyone.

Easy to see and understand line od resistance here.This is trhe line of rejection from 2017 and could well pose a problem in the short termTechnically, PA has the ability to break through this line but we need to see if it does.BITCOIN is at a crossroads and this is just one of about 3 things that stand in ts way.As mentioned earlier today, we have crossed one major hurdle today, this is the next one.Hold on tight Guys and Gals, things could get very interesting but, for now, my preferred move for BTC is to range across for a little longer and come back to this next monthUnless the next 8 days are a strong push above this line and then try and stay above it