Orriginal

A quick update for the weekend. We have since the start of this cycle, been printing Ranges, pushes, ranges Pushes. Every significant push has come off one of 2 trendlines. The Weekly chart shows these in bold white lines. A Messy working chart but clearly shows what I mean. The Ranges are in Boxes. To look again at the Daily, we can see that we are SO close to that trend line again We have bounced off this line twice in recent days. We are currently under a line of resistance and so we may revisit. It is worth noting we have a Fib Circle Right on the intersection of this Range box and the rising line of support. We also have that vertical dash line showing us the day the FED announce their latest Rate decision. All this in very close proximity to each other. Something is DEFINITELY going to happen here. The 4 hour shows more detail On this we can see that the VRVP, on the right, follows the line of that Fib circle very well. This could be pointing towards heavy resistance, in which case the potential for PA to drop below this line of support DOES exist. But as we can see on this chart, PA has found support on the rising line pf support a number of times now. In the short term, we do have th epotential for Bullish moves as the 4 hour and Daiy MACD are rising. 4 hour MACD Above neutral and looks to be heading higher. Daily MACD This does look Bullish but the MACD line ( yellow) has yet to cross over the Signal line ( red) and until that happens, we must remain cautious. Weekly MACD THIS is what we ALL need to remember, The Weekly MACD us still falling Bearish. It is obviously possible that MACD could turn Bullish before it hits the Neutral line. But should the MACD continue to fall on its current trajectory, it will be the New year before it arrives at a line of support. Conclusion CAUTION remains the most important thing righ tnow. The FED rate decision will certainly effect markets and we will see that next week. Bitcoin is in a tight Squeeze with the potential to move in BOTH directions. Short term we may see a move higher. Maybe to 117K But if we get rejected and pushed back below, sentiment may tumble. Loose 100K and begin to activate Bearish plans Reach 94K and thinl about what you intend to do VERY seriously. Me, I will start Buying again...........................

This chart is one of my oldest and most trusted charts. Thhis main chart is Weekly and from the end weeks of the Bear in 2022. You can see wre January 2023 is marked and so we can see the rising channels that developed. The Blue Bold line is a Long term line if support from 2013 that we may never visit again. There are 2 lines I want to draw your attention to. The rising bold White line that acted as strong resistance in August 2022 and was turned in to Support in early 2024. It has been strong support ever since. The other is the 2.618 Fib extension ( Arrow ). This line was resistance in early 2025 and remained so until crossed in around June this year. It has been support ever since. PA is heading towards the intersection of these two lines in Mid November ( around 17th ). PA could react before this date but it is very possible that PA will rise to a new ATH from this point. The 2.618 Fib was tested recently in that Sudden Drop and we can see this on the daily chart below. See that last wick down ? For me, the fact that this Snowballing liquidation was stopped by that line, shows massive strength of support there. We can also see that rising line of support worked well in April this year. These are 2 very strong lines of support and PA is above both of them and heading to the intersection of the two in November. But what supports this idea further ? The Weekly RSI is in a zone that previous occasions have bounced from, though it could fall a little further, giving a delay in PA rising. November 17 is just over 3 weeks away. We may see RSI rise, Dip, rise The weekly MACD also offers some insights The weekly MACD is dropping bearish and its projected line till it reaches support is around end of November. Later than the 17th November The Daily MACD may show us the idea of a bounce for the short term MACD is turning up from OVERSOLD but we need to see what happens over the next few weeks closely. The idea that a short term Bounce in the Daily MACD also supports the idea of the RSI bouncing up down up, as mentioned above. Something that I do find very interesting is the change in MVRV this cycle. I have never seem MVRV rising in a channel like this and what is more interesting is how the Z Score ( yellow ) has bounced off the lower trend line twice previously. And it is heading towards that line again, with a projected Touch around 27 November. SO, all in all, we have Bitcoin Above Strong Support, heading to a point of intersection that has the potential to push PA higher. That push could then be supported a little after with strong support from Technicals. This may Push Bitcoin PA in a sustained rise with next major resistance levels at 137K We need to get above and Hold that level. BUT, as ever, MACRO could take over and we have, next week, the FED interest rate decision. However, NOVEMBER is the focus here. The Federal Reserve does not have a scheduled FOMC meeting in November 2025. The next meeting after October 28-29, 2025, is scheduled for December 9-10, 2025 This could be VERY INTERESTING Q4 Stay safe

These charts are all 4 hour charts The Main chart is Bitcoin USD INDEX and on the Right is CFD's on GOLD The SMA's are 50 - RED, 100 - BLUE, 128 - GREEN and 200 - YELLOW Just in the SMA's we can see Gold is in better shape with PA above all SMA lines. Gold also coming down onto a strong Fib line of support just below the 100 SMA that it just bounced on. We have to wait and see if this holds. Bitcoin PA is under resistance, below its SMA's and below the nearest Fib Extension line However, Strong line of support just below. So, initially, it looks line GOLD is doing better. One way to know for sure is to look at the BTCXAUt chart. This is BTC trade Pair with GOLD This is the 4 hour BITCXAUt left and Gold on the right again. Same colour code for SMA'a Lopk at that GREEN Candle on the BTCXAUt chart This implies that BITCOIN is gaining on Gold, OR more accurately, is loosing LESS This needs to be watched closely as both are approaching lies of support / Resistance. The rest of this week is going to be interesting to say the least. And we do have to look at how the USD DXY INDEX is doing. So, on this 4 hour chart, we see DXY gaining and above its SMA's The DXY is simply the $ performance against other major currencies. CONCLUSION If you want to remain in an asset, it is better to hold on to your BITCOIN for a number of reasons. Mostly as it is loosing less than Gold right now and, after it has been falling a lot longer, is more likely to Rise again soon, providing the Bulls are ready to step in. Bitcoin is OVERSOLD on 4 hour & Daily and getting there on the weekly. GOLD is OVERBOUGHT on most time frames now. CAUTION is the name of the Game right now. However, You could sell out to a USD stable coin and while the amount of USDT may not increase, its Value appears to be climbing. The question is for how long ----------- Amd as mentioned just above, there is little point selling out to another currency as the $ is outperforming them all In the USA, on the 24th, we have the updated inflation figures Due with the figures expected to remain static. This WILL effect markets and, for me, is certainly why we may just hang around where we are right now in prices. BUT we should also be prepared for some Volatility. We have been seeing how markets seem to move just before announcements.... stay safe and , as always, Time will tell

This Daily chart VERY clearly shows us all hw BTC PA once again bounced off a Long Term support line that has existed since the beginning of this cycle higher back in Jan 2023 On this chart we can see what happened last time.. Left circle. Is it Guaranteed ? NO but on the smaller time frames we can see how PA has also brpken pver that next line and is about to retest it as support. Along with this we can see the Daily MACD is turning bullish from the Low Overbought zone. So we have the ability for a sustained bounce but somethign that may make the bulls rest on a level og their choice is the FED meeting next week, 28, 29. On the 29th, we will hear about Rate decisions. It does need to be fully understood that Lower rates may not absolutely lead to massive gains. There are some very complicated issues with regard to Corporate Borrowing and the knock on effect could harm markets. Time will tell but one thing I am sure of is how Bitcoin , to me, does still remain bullish, holding support on Key eves

The right cirxle is where i expected BTC PA to reach before it bounced, as it did on the left circle. But It Fell out of Range and has reached this line Early. the BIG question is now, Will it bounce ? And if it does, the previous line of support....wi that now be resistance ? It needs to & maintain any semblance of Bullishness....Or we will likely see 94K and truly Test the Bulls. I do have a BUY order down there. Why Not, I will be surprised if we get there but I relish the idea of buying there again The weekly RSI certainly shows the ability to rise as it drop lower The Daily RSI is also in a Good shape. So we can bounce from here but we have heavy resistance overhead now around 109K I mentioned this date range ( 12 - 15 Oct ) at the begining of th emonth...and it has played out but, now, we need that bounce higher and up and out of Range OR we could see a drop below and possible enter a mini Bear for the rest of the month. Maybe longer. As always, TIME WILL TELL>

In a post at the beginning of the month, I warned about a RED start to the month. OK, we reached a New ATH first lol...But look where we are now ! My exact words were "Past October closes are 10 Green to 4 Red, so the Odds are we will see another Green October close, though it may not be a large candle. InFacr, there are a few charts that point towards a Red start till around Second week, 12th - 15th October. This of course can change but it maybe worth understanding that we may get a bloody month start." Look at the Arrow on the chart. That Red Arc is a 236 Fib circle.... Anyway, so now ? We are not at that date range for recovery yet but Monday may be positive But CAUTION is a MASSIVE idea. We have currently bounced off the 5.382 Fib extension and are noe just above the 5.768 BUT also just under a line of resistance. WE NEED TO GET OVER THAT One thing that points to a possible range here ir, at worse, further Dips is that the Daily MACD has only just turned BEARISH The 4 hour has reached OVERSOLD now and so we may see some support coming in on a short term The Daily RSI is Low but maybe not low enough to support a sustained move higher though it can rise and Range high We need to WaTCH CLOSE AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

I first drew this chart back in 2024 and it is amaxing how things have played out, The Numbers in Grey boxes are the number of Days the 50 SMA ( red) has been above and below PA. The Blue, Below PA is the day count for PA Cycle High to cycle Low and Back to Cycle high. We have already past the "High Low" Day count for this cycle ATH and we are now on the Zone for the 50 SMA day count ATH. The peojected date for this ATH is 13 October. Note how Similar PA & 50 SMA is in the 2013 - 2017 Cycle. I was also running a PA Fractal chart showing similarities to PA and we can see how close it was until February this year For me, the reason we went "Flat" from February onwards is simly because of the Long Term resistance over head.... a line that has rejected EVERY Bitcoin ATH = this is all explained in previous posts. See the Blue Arc. It is that Blue Arc we need to Cross over. This Arc has kept PA Flat this cycle...... Looking at a Zoomed in Chart, we can see how that 50 SMA is a line of strong support. Should PA retreat, the 50 SMA is at around 103K at this time. The MACD is just under but in a zone where PA has retreated from This does NOT automatical Mean PA will Drop from here. Though on lower Time Frames, MACD is up High in Oversold. However, as the 4 hour shows us, It is already dropping from OverSold and yet PA has hit a high Divergence is in play One thing that dies hint at a pull back is the RSI being up in Oversold on a Daily chart But it should be understood, RSI Can range High or Low So, are we in Cycle Still ? If we are, we should expect a beginning of a BEAR market in the next few weeks. But we have not really seen the "Top" pattern and Profit taking yet..... Until that happens, I really am inclined to believe we have broken the cycle patterns.for a number of reasons. For instance, the MVRV Z Score This has not even past the levels seen in previous Runs BUT as a precaution, it is worth noting that Dash orange line, that starts where the Nov 2021 ATH Was. We have been rejected from that level already this run But we Still have room to get back up to that level at the mooment. The Main reason i feel things are different are that Blue Arc I mentioned earlier. We HAVE to break above that and remain there..... We are too close at this moment and a Bear market WILL take us back below that HUGE line of Very Very Strong resistance. The Daily chart below shows this We need one more push to take us Higher, to give us Room to remain above, even when Bitcoin Does correct . Note that 3 Fin extension on the last chart posted. We just got above the 6. We need to Rise far enough over that for it to act as support ewhn retested. 3, 6, 9 9 Fib extension at around 180K Just saying NEW CYCLES ARE BEGINNING

A Very simple Bitcoin Daily chart Obviously, the eye is drwan to the Arrow pointing towards March / April 2025 when Bitcoin PA printed a W patter, or a double bottom. The Vertical lines show the measured move higher that was executed perfectly. The question we have right now is, have we just printed another W pattern, with a Measured Move higher to 142K usd Or Have we just printed a Double TOP with a measured move LOWER to around 88K usd 4 days ago I posted the Monthly Charts and mentioned that we may start October with a Drop, that may last till around 12 - 15 October. Untill this measured move plays out, I stand by this But I am obviously also open to this not happening. What ever happens, I have learnt over the years to be ready for BOTH sides of the coin. I DO have a BUY SPOT order placed for Bitcoin at 92K IF we get down there,,IF,,,,,It may well be thelast time we get the chance to Buy Bitcoin under 100K Time will tell

These charts are DAILY chart Top Left BTCUSDT Index - Top right DXY US $ Index Bottome Left BTCXAUt Bitcoin GOLD - Bottom right GOLD USD Easy to see how the USD is currently running FLAT after Months of devaluation (top left) So while BTCUSD has risen, More $ per Bitcoin, the REAL Value of each $ is less than it was in 2023, when this bull run began taking shape. If we look at the BTCXAUt chart, we can see how in the same time period, BTC has Lost to Gold since June but has begun to regain, Infact, if we look at the BTCXAUt Weekly chatrt, you can see how BTC has walked all over GOLD. More than that, just look at that pennant. But Why is GOLD better pair than $? Look at the Weekly GOLD chart This is the same scale as the chart above. GOTH HAVE RISEN IN VALUE SUBSTANTIALLY> This is a WIN WIN situation The DXY ni the same period Ranging with Deeper Drops each time. Trading is 90% more profitable with BTC GOLD pair Even if you do not trade and you want to take profit, Sell your Bitcoin to GOLD and your profit continues to Rise !! If you Trade the swings higer andlower on each asset, there is a risk but the Gains are REAL Just saying, NOT Advice Have a Nice weekend

That Blue line is a calculated Arc, that is, in fact, a part of a Fibonacci Spiral. As you can see, it has rejected EVERY Bitcoin ATH - Every one. And right now, PA is getting Squeezed by it and the line of long term support just below. We have till year end to break and hold above this Blue Arc. Here is a Zoomed version of the same chart. PA is currently Just above that Line,,but only just. It has been rejected a number of times since Q4 2024. We need to break above and hold. It is as simple as that, otherwise, PA will be dragged down. As you probably realise, This is the end of this Series of Bitcoin cycles. Once above the Spiral, we leave a series of patterns Bitcoin has been in since it was created in 2008 Exciting days ahead