Orriginal

I have simplified this chart by removing the Key moments brought on by the introduction of Interest rate changes. The initial Collapse of some Key Crypto companies, mostly due to overindulgence and Stupidity.. The time has past and we have entered a new regime However. it is still Very interesting to see how Bitcoin has reacted to Rate changes since the changes were introduced in March 2022. For me, the descent of BTC PA from its ATH in Noveber 2021 was not brought on by Banks as some have said. It is allpart of the usual cycle. However, the increased cost of Borrowing DID begin to destabalise many companies and ultimaltly, brought down a number of Key companies, including the organisations that lent money, like BANKS> And in this time, Bitcoin Did Drop below its 200 Week Moving Average for the first time in its history. This happened more as a result of companies getting scared and NOT because Bitcoin was Weakened by it. In Fact, its recivery in January 2023 was perfectly Timed and, as you can clearly see in the Green Box, Bitcoin began to RISE even though Consecutive rate rises of 75, 50, 25, 25 & 25 pts were placed against the cost of FIAT Loans. This showed HUGE strength anf determination. The results of which we see today. And then Bo rate rises were imposed, Borrowing was still expensive. And Bitcoin Rose loike a start, ETF;s arrived etc etc. And now, we see the Federal Reserve begin to Pivot once again. BITCOIN is a GIANT and is only just waking up The last time Bitcoin Dropped Rates, BTC PA did Rise to the levels we are currently used to seeing. Whats Next ? I am hoping for at least 155K

Each Low to ATH has a "Local" Fib extension Set And the Yellow Fib extension is from the 2011 Low to the 2013 ATH and I use this as a "Global" Fib as that was, in reality, the first ever Low to ATH before a sustained draw back. Please Note that as Candles would not show very clearly at this scale, I have used a Line. This has some inaccuracy as to true candle Ends. As a result, it looks like some Fibs are misplaced but I assure you, each are placed accurately, using candles and then the Line is used. The Fibs are accuratly placed. Local Fib extension ATH Fib number 2013 November - 5.272 2017 December - 4.236 2021 November - 2 2025 Current just above 2.618 Global Fib extension ATH number NOTE- See on chart how ATH is just above this Fib level, except for Fib 1. 2013 November - 1 2017 December- 1.414 2021 November - 1.618 2025 Current Fib just below 1,758 - if we follow trend, I expect ATH to be using this 1.768 line, the next in sequence of Fib numbers. Local Fib charts 2011 low to 2013 ATH 2015 low to 2017 ATH 2019 low to 2021 ATH 2023 low to current position To me, there are a number of things to see here. More than anything, what is plain to see is how Bitcoin has used the Global Fib numbers like stepping Stones. Currently just below the 1.768, which is the next in sequence. ( Yellow lines ) All but the First ATH were recorded just above the Global Fib lines ( the First was on the line ) and I have little doubt we will do this again. And if we look at the pattern of the Local Fib lines, we can see that we missed the 3.236 line in 2021 We went from 5 to 4 to 2. ( ignoring the 236 bit for now.) We missed 3 See how the first 2 Local Fibs dropped by nearly one complete Fib number, from 5.272 to 4.236 By the time we headed towards the 2021 ATH, the market accelerated hugely, mostly due to the idea of Get Rich quick and no tax rules..GREED WAS UPMOST. Even at the time, I considered this cycle Abnormal. Many charts show why, and I will not expand further here. The Local Fib level for that run was distorted by the swift recovery from the low in 2019. While this was not a bad thing, it changed the cycle dynamics. This cycle, currently, we have returned to a more sensible approach and we appear to be heading to the 3 local Fib zone, maybe as we should have done in 2021. This also happens to be just above the 1.768 Global Fib line, The next expected Global ATH line. So, we are currently approaching that 1.7668 Global Fib line and we can expect the ATH to be above this, if we follow the previous 2 ATH. And if we go above that Global line the same as we have in the last 2 previous cycles, we find the Local 3 Fib extension. IF we were to follow previous, this could be expected ro be the 3.236, at around 190K I think this is doubtful and maybe the 3 itself is more realistic at 155K So, there you have it. Bitcoin and its Fibs have a pattern, it get broken and it looks like it is trying to regain that pattern. And this is all done by Humans trading........ Astounding. and that 2 Global Fin line in 2029 ? Will we get there ? Given the introductions of ETF and Corprate Long term holders....Will we see a bear market before we rech that 2 Global Fib ? So many questions... One real answer is BUY BITCOIN AND HOLD ON TO IT

This chart uses the SMA, Simple Moving Average Red = 50, Blue = 100, Green = 128, Yellow = 200 Today, PA is once again up against the 50 SMA that has become resistance. This is just below the important level that would allow us to make a higher high if PA breaks through. A Higher High is made if we rise avove 113452 We can see that the 100 SMA is also now on a local line of support. So it is decision time for PA today. To remain in an ever decreasing area, a squeeze, or Break out above the 50 ( 112967 ) or fall below the 100 ( 110831 ) and the local support. As you can see, this is a very tight range This is continued with the 128 SMA at 109134 A Lower low is made if we drop below 107165 Daily MACD still rising Bullish This is only just and not really showing to many sighs of a "durge". The Histogram is green but is we look bak, we can see a similar rise in Mid August that failed to continue. However, It has room to move higher when ready, by a substantial margin. The 4 Hour PA charts shows ua how the Bulls have been at work PA continues to besandwiched between the 200 SMA and the 50. If this pattern continues, we can expect to see PA rejected today by the 200 SMA and return to the 111200 area. The 4 hour MACD The Histogram shows us the hesitancy of PA. This is nit such a bad thing PA seems to be waiting, maybe for the FED on 17th. I am not sure that PA can continue this long and I feel a reaction will be made prior to this date. This may be a Dip lower, A LONG destroyer just before we see a move higher,, should the FED lower rates. But trying to predict BTC Moves is foolhardy............... Today will certainly give us an idea of future direction........

This chart uses the SMA, Simple Moving Average Red = 50, Blue = 100, Green = 128, Yellow = 200 The weekend was calm and very low trading. PA is ranging along the 100 SMA and sitting, waiting. PA has the potential to move in either direction right now but the Bulls are certainly present, Keeping PA static. Daily MACD remains Bulish with room to move higher, Histogram is Green On the shorter term 4 hour, we can see how the 50 SMA is supporting PA while the 100 is currently the line to cross at 111582 PA has support below and is avobe the VRVP POC ( red dots ) Shorter term certainly appears more Bullish The 4 hour MACD also shows this The MACD came down and tested neutral line as support and the Histogram here is alo Green. But understand, this does NOT guarantee a rise further. The lines of Resistance abive are growing. Currently, beginning aroun 113K The Blue line on the Daily chart is the ultimate Goal to be crossed. This is a LONG Term line of resistance that has rejected EVERY ATH since 2011. It is the only line that has done this and what is important to know, this is a Calculated Arc, part of a Fibonaccj Spiral ( as explained in a previous post) This is the Bigger picture, PA from November 2009, the year after Bitcoin Was born As you can see, PA is being Sqqueezed and HAS to react before January 2026 or face stiff rejection below that Long Term line of support ( dashed line) What ever happens, this IS the beginning of a New Era, Cycle of Bitcoin. And this is why we need to pay so much attention to Bitcoin right now. We MUST rise above that blue Arc of resistance.... And Curently, we are HERE....shown in the chart below. This is a daily chart from November 2024 PA has been trying to get above this blue Arc since then. And we are right under it again now, Target price to get to and hold Above this Blue Arc is around 117K We may wait till the FED tells us its decision on interest rates this month.

As you can se, PA is getting rejected off the 50 SMA ( red) If this rejection is confirmed, this could create a double Top and may push PA back down to create a Lower Low. Watch this closely, it could turn if the bulls step in. Just be Very cautious right now. oshorter term 4 hour MACD is showing us that MACD did cross above the signal line however, this could turn down quickly as it did over on the left of the chart Caution is advisable

This chart uses the SMA, Simple Moving Average Red = 50, Blue = 100, Green = 128, Yellow = 200 As expected, PA came down and tested the trend line that has rejected PA since 13 August and has since bounced back up. We will have to wait and see but this may have created a Higher Low as PA rose and now sits on the 100 as support. Should PA continue to rise from here, the 50 SMA at 113254 is the line of resistance we Need to cross and test. This would then give is a Higher High. After that, the next Higher High will be at a price after 119 Should PA get rejected, the 128 SMA is at 108995 and then the previous Low is at 107165 The Daily MACD seems to have Crossed above its signal line This is "only Just " and so we wait to see where it goes form here but we are certainly looking Bullish in a longer term as Bulls show us they can respond. The 4 hour BTC PA chart This chart makes me a little cautious for now, waiting for confirmation of this move higher, See how that 2nd Green candle after the bounce, came up and got rejected off the 100 SMA and the current candle is having the same problem. We do seem to have support on the 50 SMA PA is currently in a tight range above, with the SMA's very tight. It is easier for PA to Drop from here so today could be a battle. The 4 hour MACD is also at a point of crossing The MACD here has NOT yet crossed the signal line and so we wait, watching to see what happens. The Histogram shows positive momentum. It should be remembered that we have the USA calling the possibility of Rate cuts this month. If the FED goes against the grain, this could be damaging and should the FED decide to cut rates, we are off to the races. This month is Pivotal. Long term still Bullish, short term undecided..remaining Bullish CAUTIOUS

This daily chart uses the SMA, Simple Moving Average Red = 50, Blue = 100, Green = 128, Yellow = 200 PA got rejected yesterday from its rise over the 100 SMA and is currently testing that as support on a Daily chart. If that fails, we could see PA retreat down to around 108900, where we have the 128 SMA and the descending line of resistance. This line has not been tested as support yet. As we can see on the chart, if this rejection continues down past 107165, we will have printed a Lower high, pointing towards continued price drops. with the 200 SMA at 104348 The Daily MACD has reached up to its Signal line This could also be a point of rejection, keep your eye on this The 4 Hour BTC PA chart shows us more near term detail PA is currently testing the 50 as support after getting rejected from the 128 and falling through the 100. If this fails, we can see PA will bump into the trend line, around 108900 - 108500. To many extents, this would be a good move providing we then found support and bounced higher as it would create a Higher Low. The 4 hour MACD MACD has turned down and heading towards its signal line. This may offer support but it will continue down Bearish if PA does reach down to the trend line. Note how the Histogram has descending sharply. Today we must sit and wait For me, I think we could see the 109k - 108k area tested at some point over the next few days. Maybe sooner than later

This daily chart uses the SMA, Simple Moving Average Red = 50, Blue = 100, Green = 128, Yellow = 200 Yesterday, PA broke through the descending line of resistance it had been under since 13 August. As yet, this does not mean PA will now rise, though on a daily chart, the MACD certainly has the room to move higher, as seen below However, given where we are in a traditionaly quiet month, I do still see PA sliding down this line in the bear future...testing it as support This maybe supported by the fact that the shorter term 4 Hour MACD has Crossed Neutral but the Hitogram is showing White bars and not Green. This shows a weakening and the MACD line moving closer to the red signal line. The Daily RSI is also turning over but remains above its MA for now So for now, we see PA has broken over the Daily 100 SMA and is testing as support. Above, we have the 50 at 113300 This could be the next line of resistance if PA rises now. Should PA turn down now, we have the 100 SMA at 110762. Below that , the 128 sits at 108194 To remain above that descending trend line, we need to Range in the area we currently are in and stay above that 100SMA at 110K for at least the next 24 hours If we look at the Bitcoin 4 hour chart, we see this maybe possible PA sits in a very tight range between the 50 and the 100 4 hour SMA and is currently sitting on the VRVP Point of control ( red dotted line ) This is all support but we have to wait and see if it remains so. There is Very little action trading right now...we just waiting.

This chart uses the SMA. Red - 50, Blue - 100, Green - 128 and 200 - Yellow PA is absolutely in a descending channel with repeated Lower Low Lower high on a daily chart Today, we will see if we break that or not as PA reaches resistance on a Trend line. The 50 SMA is descending as potential resistance when the day comes were PA breaks out and reaches higher. This will happen as I do not believe we are entering a Deep Bear..This is a Local "Cool off" but we may hit a tough one at that 50 SMA at around 113K Till then, we are hitting the 100 as resistance and the 128 as support. This may break today as we hit that line of resistance with the 128 SMA not far below. The DAILY MACD offers some hope of strength as we see it bouncing off oversold We will have to watch today close to see where we go If we get rejected today, Next stop down could be the 200 SMA at around 103K low This line needs to hold to show use confidence in the Bulls. My line of concern will be reached if e go to 95K and fall through. This daily chart below shows a number of things to support what is written above. On this , we see the 2.618 Fib extension around the same area as the 200 day SMA @ 103900 usd The circle highlights a point where a 236 Fib circle crosses over a rising line of support. This is around 97K and just below this is another line of support around 95K People that follow me will know that I often highlight 236 Fib circles as lines of strong resistance and on this occasion, this maybe Exactly why we see PA dropping now. The intersection is near the end of September, a usually slow month that has a majority of RED Candle Closes on a month chart ( 9 red to 5 Green since 2013) I am not saying we will get to this level but the potential does exist while we remain in a down trend.... I would hope that PA bounces off the Fib extension on that 200 SMA if we get near that 104K line. On a longer term, we should take note of the WEEKLY MACD Should this continue down the line drawn, that takes us to Late October before a bounce ur a more sustained push higher. We should keep this in mind I welcome any comments ( Sensible ones..)Currently getting rejected

August closed RED and so now we have 10 red closes to 5 Green. This has closed the possibility of continuing the pattern we had been following. The Dashed line Boxes show us The only 2 occasions where we have had a Green December, Red January, Red February, Green March, Green April. Then we had a Green May 2012 and a Red May 2020 Then both repeated a Green June, Green July. They both also had had Green August but we just closed Red. This breaks this sequence for me but I will keep the boxes in place for now just incase we revert back to Sequence. The horizontal arrows are pointing to the previous 9 Red August Closes. Where you see 2 Arrows is where this was followed by a Green September. This happened 4 times. Note those double arrows on the left are in the 2016 build up to 2017 ATH and the ones on the right are in the Current cycle. September Candle close count is currently is 5 Green to 9 Red, the same as August was. Of those 5 Green September closes, 4 were after a Red August. The other Green September was in the 2020 run up to the March 2021 ATH ( Middle dashed box) Odds are on for a Red September as we see Bitcoin falling below some serious support levels but we should also note how PA is remaining above the 100k line for now. August and September are traditionally months of Holidays and so trading slows, hence the majority of Red candles Q4 is the ones to wait for and as you can see from the colour counts, Q4 is usually Bullish We wait - we Hold and if PA Drops to the possible 104K line where the 200 day SMA sits, I will Buy More. Scale in