Technical analysis by norok about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (11/19/2025)

Always early, never in doubt I have already exited my Bitcoin related ( IBIT Puts) shorts and MSTR Puts. I felt confident I would be early as that that is my habit. There will undoubtably be a relief rally at some point that I may re-enter. My long term forecast is that the bull phase of the Halvening price cycle has ended and the bear phase has begun. Let's break down each price action component I am watching... First let's take a step back to learn why we got here. The false breakout or "Spike" as I call them are one of the most trustworthy signals that I trade. If you study one single element of price action it should be this. When price fails to close above a prior ATH (or below a major low) this is the highest probability of a reversal. Market psychology is on display that traders refused to continue the rally and now many are "trapped". This was the reason for the mass liquidations in October that started this bear trend. Many thought a breakout was in order but the confirmation failed. One day after the "Trump tweet" the Daily Ichimoku Cloud trend confirmed bearish. This is another indicator of Bitcoin's trend that has been useful for all of Bitcoin's history. It is also what we will evaluate later on the Weekly. At this point the most important level to watch is the 50% Retracement for the entire bull phase going back to November 2022 low. There are Volume Profile levels to watch but we assume that price will retest the 50% and evaluate what will happen in the Ichimoku Cloud trend context there. Back in April 2025, when price on the Weekly made a move to the Weekly Ichimoku Cloud, price never hit or got inside the cloud nor did Momentum have a reasonable chance of crossing into bearish. "This time it's different" because if price does test the 50% Retracement it will signal full bearish trend confirmation on the Weekly timeframe. During the last cycle, the bearish trend ended when the timing element of the Monthly Ichomoku cloud turned upwards. There is a similar timing element on the Monthly now in November 2026. My fundamental, market psychology based speculation is that the ETF buyers from January 2023 must have their patience tested. That price is around 43k. TL:DR; Price will trend bearish down to 43k with the bear phase ending around November 2026.