Technical analysis by Ryan_Lewis1 about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (4 hour ago)

Fundamentals: Three Potential Downside Risks Emerge, Upside Momentum Fades Safe-Haven Sentiment Cools Marginally, Premium Pullback Expected The Israel-Palestine conflict in the Middle East has entered a "stalemate phase," with no substantive escalation from either side. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to 85% of pre-conflict levels, and the shipping risk premium is gradually fading. Meanwhile, China and the U.S. released signals of trade cooperation after the APEC summit, with phased easing of frictions in the technology sector. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and funds have started flowing from gold to stocks and commodities (such as crude oil and copper), weakening the demand for gold as a safe-haven allocation. Historical data shows that during similar "safe-haven cooling cycles," the probability of a short-term gold correction exceeds 65%, with correction ranges mostly between 3% and 5%. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Policy Expectations Have Room for Revision, Rate Cut Logic Weakens The current market has overpriced the probability of a Fed rate cut in December (about 75%), posing a risk of "expectation revision." U.S. retail sales in October rose 0.8% month-on-month, an unexpected rebound indicating lingering consumer resilience. While core PCE remains stable at 2.4%, stickiness in service sector inflation persists. Fed officials have recently released intensive "cautious rate cut" signals (e.g., Governor Bowman emphasized the need to "see more data"). If subsequent economic data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations may cool rapidly, suppressing gold’s upside. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capital Side Divergence Intensifies, Institutions Exit Cautiously From the perspective of position data, non-commercial net long positions in New York gold futures have declined for two consecutive weeks (down 12% this week), as institutions begin to lock in gains at high levels. Although holdings of the world’s largest gold ETF (SPDR) have not seen significant outflows, the daily net inflow scale has dropped 60% from the October peak, indicating insufficient capital recognition above $4,130. Meanwhile, retail bullish sentiment accounts for 58%, forming an "sentiment divergence" with institutions’ cautious attitude—a common precursor to short-term corrections. Today's gold trading strategy sell：4150-4140 tp:4130-4120-4090 sl:4165