Technical analysis by Ryan_Lewis1 about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (11/11/2025)

1.Macroeconomic Environment: Rate Cut Expectation Pullback Doesn’t Alter Dovish FundamentalsWhile the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has fallen from 90% to 68%, the implicit easing trend remains unbroken. The sell-off in risk assets triggered by the short-term strength of the US dollar index has entered its final phase. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has dropped to a historical low of -0.54, highlighting asset independence as it no longer fluctuates solely with traditional safe-haven assets. Current valuations have pulled back over 20% from historical highs, and the enhanced attractiveness after bubble squeezing creates conditions for capital inflows. 2.Technical Pattern: Double Bottom Formation + Gap Support Build a Safety CushionA dense order zone has formed on the daily chart between $98,100 and $102,000, jointly constructing a preliminary double bottom pattern with the current price of $103,100. The 4-hour chart shows price has pulled back to the lower edge of the previous consolidation range, with an unfilled CME gap between $103,100 and $104,000 creating a technical resonance effect of gap filling and support. The RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought zone to neutral territory, while MACD green bars are contracting, indicating fading bearish momentum. 3.Capital Flow: ETF Outflows Peak + Institutions Deploy Against the TrendThe outflow trend of Bitcoin ETF funds is easing. After the previous withdrawal of $2 billion, selling pressure has been significantly released. Recent trading volume has remained above $50 billion, reflecting ample market liquidity. Selling pressure from whale holders is nearing an end, while institutional investors are deploying against the pullback. Asset management giants like BlackRock maintain core positions, and Coinbase data shows institutional capital inflows have rebounded to 32% of total volume. 4.Supply-Demand Structure: Halving Effect Combined with On-Chain Tightening Provides SupportAfter the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s daily output dropped to 900 coins, while daily demand from spot ETFs remains high, forming a sustained supply-demand gap. On-chain data shows illiquid supply accounts for 65%, exchange balances continue to decline, and selling pressure from long-term holders has exhausted—providing fundamental support for price stability. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：102000-103000 tp:104000-105000 sl：101000Bitcoin Long Position Trading Strategy