Technical analysis by vchong88 about Symbol ZEC: Buy recommendation (11/7/2025)

ZEC Update: ATH Breaker – $538 New High Amid Privacy FOMO, But Overbought Signals a Breath (Nov 6, 2025) ZEC's on a tear today, smashing its 2017 ATH of ~$900 (inflation-adjusted) with a fresh peak at $538 (+20% 24h, +57% 7d, +10x monthly per 99Bitcoins), trading around $535-539 as of late EST. Volume exploded to $1.97B (2x avg), fueled by whale inflows (+0.21 Chaikin Money Flow), post-halving scarcity (supply issuance down 50%), and Q4 roadmap hype: ECC's Nov 1 drop adds ephemeral addresses for auto-privacy swaps and Keystone wallet fixes, per CoinDesk. Privacy narrative's Q4 king—CBDC tracing fears + Galaxy Digital's "cypherpunk BTC alt" nod—spillover from your ZEC long (that $229 entry? Now 2.3x green). BTC's $103K recovery (+4%) drags alts up, but ZEC decouples with 63% green days. On-chain: Shielded tx +65% to 35% of total, Grayscale +$600M YTD. X echo: MorrisChen calls "$550 say WHAT" on BTC whale rotations; sentiment 80% bullish, but "dino coin pump at cycle end" warnings (TradingView). RSI at 81 (overbought, per CoinCodex) flags pullback risk—your chart's Darvas boxes (T1 $545, T2 $565) align perfectly for a measured move, but yellow MFI divergence hints exhaustion. Bull intact: $600+ EOW if holds $500, but trail stops. Quick Metrics Snapshot (Nov 6, 2025) | Metric | Value | Change (24h/7d) | |--------|-------|-----------------| | Price | $535-539 | +20% / +57% | | Market Cap | ~$8.3B (top 20) | +18% / +52% | | 24h Volume | $1.97B | +120% | | RSI (14) | 81 (overbought) | - | | Fear & Greed | 23 (Extreme Fear, contrarian buy) | - | | ATH | $538 (today) | - | Technical Ties to Your TradingView Chart Your 1H perp chart screams continuation in the blue ascending channel (lower ~$500 now post-pump, upper $620 projection), with green candles rejecting the red descending TL at $510. Key overlays: - Darvas Boxes: Box 5 breakout at $487 (your green vol spike) targets T1 $545 (Fib 1.618 from Oct low), T2 $565 (channel top)—watch $546 resistance for squeeze. - Trendlines: Blue upTL from $380 low holds as support; red downTL flip at $510 confirms bull—break $546 eyes $620 (2.0 Fib). - Indicators: RSI 75 (your panel) cooling from 85, but bull cross intact; SMACD histogram yellowing (divergence on highs), MFI overbought—expect 10% dip to $480 before rip. VIX-like vol bands wide on greens. Supports: $500-510 (channel low, prior ATH flip); $480 (50-day EMA). Resistances: $546 (pivot R1); $565-600 (Darvas T2, psych round). Short-Term Targets (Next 1-3 Days, Through Nov 10) Momentum's parabolic (19/30 green days), but overbought RSI >80 risks shakeout. Path: Test $546, consolidate, then FOMO leg. CoinCodex: +8% to $529 base, but X bulls eye $550+. - Base Case: $545-555 (2-4% upside). Measured Darvas add $10-20 from $535; high prob if vol >$2B. - Bull Case: $565-600 (5-12% upside). Channel top + 2.618 Fib; privacy tx +10% catalyst. Weex: $540 today, scaling to $567. - Stretch: $620 (15% upside). If MACD holds bull, but RSI dip <70 first. Trade idea: Scale 20% out at $545 (your T1); trail stop to $510. Long bias above $520. Long-Term Outlook (EOY 2025) Q4 roadmap + halving echo ZEC's "ZODL" potential—Coinpedia: $360 conservative (wait, no—ATH push to $594), but models avg $722 by Dec (CoinCodex +47%). If shielded vol hits $300B, 2-3x from here. - Base: $600-650 (12-20% from now). EMA stack bullish. - Bull: $700-800 (30-50% upside). 1% BTC mcap slice. - Moon: $1,000+ (85%+). If ETF whispers.