Technical analysis by moonypto about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (11/4/2025)

I smell fear and blood in the market this month. The kind of tension that makes weak hands tremble and sharp minds wake up early.. The gov’s playin chicken with the economy, inflation data’s hanging by a thread, and traders are trying to convince themselves the Fed still has their back. It’s the perfect setup chaos dressed as opportunity. November isn’t about playing safe; it’s about reading the fear, finding the cracks, and taking what others are too nervous to touch.. Macro Outlook 🌎 The month’s economic calendar is packed though how much actually happens depends on whether the government shutdown ends soon. Several key reports, like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), could be delayed. These data points are essential for gauging inflation and guiding Federal Reserve decisions. Other scheduled releases include the ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment, all of which offer insight into economic activity and confidence. The FOMC minutes will also shed light on the Fed’s most recent discussions If the shutdown continues and these reports are postponed, it may weaken the case for a December rate cut something investors had been hoping might give markets a lift.. Government Developments 🏛️ The government shutdown remains a key source of uncertainty. Markets don’t tend to like surprises, and a sudden resolution or further standoff could both jolt prices. Prediction markets currently suggest the shutdown could last until early December, which doesn’t inspire much optimism for November. Until then, traders will be navigating a mix of speculation, shifting sentiment, and thinner data releases than usual. Corporate Earnings 💰 Roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings this week, spanning a range of sectors. Crypto: Robinhood, Hut 8 AI: Palantir, AMD, ARM Consumer & “animal spirits”: DraftKings, Beyond Meat The market will be watching how these companies perform amid broader uncertainty. Strong reports particularly from AI and crypto-linked firms could serve as short-term confidence boosts. Crypto & Charts 📈 November has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, averaging about a 40% gain. If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could reach around $150k by month’s end, breaking an eight year trend line and flipping a key resistance level into support. BTC 100K level is super important and if bulls lose that line then you must be ready for new patterns or bear market..yup! Ideally, altcoins would rally alongside Bitcoin, signaling a true “alt season” For that to happen, Bitcoin’s market dominance (BTC.D) would likely need to fall, showing that capital is rotating into the broader crypto market. Ethereum could play a big role here. There’s significant potential for forced buying if prices hit certain liquidation levels above the current range. That could push ETH higher and further drag BTC.D down though this remains a “wait and see” setup. This month’s outlook is a mix of promise and uncertainty. Macroeconomic data may be disrupted, the government shutdown lingers, and markets are trying to read between the lines of what’s missing. Still, corporate earnings and crypto trends could offer some upside surprises. For now, stay alert, track the key dates, and as the saying goes make your offerings to the market GodsBitcoin led a broad market pullback overnight, dropping to test the crucial $100,000 support mark. The decline was driven by a stronger dollar and ongoing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy, both of which dampened risk appetite across various asset classes. This broader macro pressure had a direct impact on cryptocurrency, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw consistent outflows of around $1.3 billion over four consecutive sessions. What had been one of 2025’s most reliable market tailwinds quickly turned into a short-term headwind. The weaker demand for spot Bitcoin collided with forced deleveraging, leading to more than $1 billion in long liquidations at the lows. This pushed prices below intraday support levels before buyers stepped in. Options positioning also contributed to the volatility, as dealers holding short positions around the $100k strike prices increased their hedging activity, which intensified the market’s moves. Now, the $100,000 level has become a critical psychological barrier. If ETF flows stabilize, sentiment could quickly shift, unless there’s another major macroeconomic shock. Macro Outlook Remains Positive, but Uncertain The overall macroeconomic outlook remains positive, though clouded by the ongoing government shutdown in Washington. With official payroll data for October delayed, markets are leaning on private-sector indicators to gauge economic momentum. The most recent data showed mixed results: Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, while payroll growth slowed to an average of around 29,000 jobs per month, suggesting solid productivity gains. The latest Q3 GDP estimate came in at 4.0% SAAR, bolstered by steady ISM and consumer spending data. This week’s high-frequency data points, including Redbook, ISM, ADP, Challenger, and jobless claims (which are near 218k), should confirm that the economy is expanding at a modest but positive pace. Dollar Strength Driven by Policy Uncertainty Policy direction remains unclear, especially after the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut in October, which came with some unusual dissents and a cautious tone. This has tempered expectations of another rate cut in December, with markets now pricing in around 60-65% odds of a follow-up move. However, the longer the policy blackout continues, the more comfortable policymakers may become with holding off on further cuts, which would likely keep the dollar strong and credit conditions tight. For Bitcoin to break higher, we’ll probably need to see a reversal in ETF outflows and renewed confidence in riskier assets.