Technical analysis by pakoumal about Symbol QQQX on 10/23/2025

The monthly candles show a secular uptrend Price remains well above the 20, 50 & 100 month moving averages Even with the short-term volatility we’ve seen around $603-$613, that’s just noise inside a steep upward channel Big-picture momentum is still firmly bullish Intraday price range are temporary mean-reversions inside an ongoing trend The long-term “fuel” is still there, but risk-reward for new longer-term entries is thinning, so a multi-month consolidation or modest correction wouldn’t be unusual RSI ≈ 76 is solidly overbought, but not diverging yet - typical of strong late-cycle trends When RSI stays above 70 for months, it signals strength, not necessarily exhaustion Stochastic ≈ 96 is extremely stretched which is often where monthly pullbacks (5–10%) - it can stay pinned for months before reversing Volume has drifted lower since 2022, which hints that participation has narrowed to the mega-caps That aligns with what we’re seeing day-to-day with QQQE (equal-weight) lagging, concentrated leadership from the largest names 1. Continued grind higher If earnings/CPI stay supportive, QQQ could extend toward $630-$640 before serious resistance - hold above $600 2. Healthy correction A 5-8% dip to $570-$580 would reset momentum without breaking trend Support at 20 month MA (~$505) if deeper 3. Trend failure Only a sustained break below $500-$505 would turn the monthly chart bearish 100 month MA near $314 = long-term floor The monthly chart shows QQQ in a mature but intact bull trend with momentum hot, volume thinning, room for a 5-10% reset without real technical damage For day-to-day trading, expect more mean-reversion around $600-$620 until volatility events pass Long bias remains justified while price is above the 20 month MA Intraday fades & pullbacks are tactical only - they’re counter-trend, not trend reversals Watch IV + macro catalysts since spikes in implied volatility (earnings/CPI) often create those short-term pullbacks without changing the monthly structure Feb-Mar 2020 RSI > 75 Stoch > 95 –12 % 1 monthCOVID crash (black-swan, outsized) Nov 2021-Jan 2022 RSI ≈ 77 Stoch ≈ 96 –10 % 2 months Rate-hike scare, peak valuation Aug 2023-Oct 2023 RSI ≈ 74 Stoch ≈ 94 –7 % 2 months Bond-yield spike/earnings reset Apr 2024-May 2024 RSI ≈ 76 Stoch ≈ 97 –6 % 1 month Macro pause, then continuation -5% to -8% lasting 1-2 months while the long-term uptrend stays intact Current price ≈ $604 –5 % ≈ $573 Minor swing-low support (Aug 2024 area) –7 % ≈ $562 Volume-weighted support/10 month MA –10 % ≈ $543 2024 high retest, deeper but still trend-safe That $560-$575 area would relieve monthly overbought conditions without threatening the secular trend 1. RSI divergence on the weekly chart (lower high while price makes a higher high) Weekly close below $600 confirms cooling momentum VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) >20 shows volatility expansion accompanying the fade Volume expansion on red candles after CPI/Fed events 2. RSI falls back toward 60-65 on the monthly Price stabilizes near the 20 week or 50d MA (roughly $575-$585) IV compresses again in a new accumulation phase/continuation toward prior highs 🧭 Summary Historical overbought phases in QQQ resolve with a –5% to –8% dip over 1-2 months, usually bottoming around $560-$575, then resuming the larger bull trend Anything beyond –10 % would signal a regime change rather than a standard reset