Technical analysis by Swissquote about Symbol BTC on 10/15/2025

On Friday, October 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a true shockwave, marked by a massive liquidation of long positions exceeding $19 billion. This violent jolt was triggered by the sudden announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports by the U.S. President, sparking widespread panic across all risk assets. In the wake of this decision, Bitcoin lost more than 10% within hours, dragging down all altcoins — some of which fell by as much as 80% — before regaining some balance by the end of the session. Yet, despite the brutality of the move, Bitcoin’s underlying trend remains bullish, as no major support has been broken, and we are still at the beginning of the quarter that is historically the most favorable for BTC price appreciation. In other words, this spectacular correction appears more like a technical flush than a lasting reversal of Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend. 1) The underlying trend of Bitcoin remains bullish as long as the major technical support at $106K–$109K holds The violent rejection seen during the Friday, October 10 session confirmed the strength of the major resistance represented by the trendline connecting the key peaks since the end-of-2017 cycle top. This major resistance has been capping the market since mid-July and could potentially mark the start of a new bear market. However, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. Rejection under a major resistance is one thing; breaking a major support is another. As long as the $106K–$109K support zone holds, the underlying bullish trend remains intact and a bear market has not yet begun. 2) Will the bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving end this week, on Saturday, October 18? From a cyclical perspective, the week of Monday, October 13, deserves close attention. If the bullish cycle were to end on Saturday, October 18, the duration of the current cycle would exactly match that of the previous one — the 2020 halving cycle, which peaked in November 2021. We can therefore say that this week is decisive in determining whether Bitcoin has already entered a new bear market. 3) The cycle could end by late November 2025 if Bitcoin aligns with the average duration of the three previous cycles There is still the possibility that the cycle linked to the 2024 halving could extend until the end of November 2025. If so, this cycle would last as long as the one tied to the 2016 halving (in terms of peak-to-peak duration) and would perfectly align with the average calendar duration of the past three cycles. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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