Technical analysis by Swissquote about Symbol ETH on 10/9/2025

While the debate over the timing of the end of the bullish cycle continues, Ether (ETH) has reached the 26th position worldwide ($540 billion USD) in the ranking of global market capitalizations across all asset classes. For comparison, gold ranks first at $27 trillion USD, and Bitcoin is in 7th place with $2.45 trillion USD. Regarding Bitcoin’s price and the possible dates for the end of the bullish cycle linked to the 2024 halving, I invite you to click on the chart below. You’ll see that the end-of-cycle window lies between October 18 and November 20. But let’s return to the focus of this analysis: Ethereum — specifically the ETH/USD price and a realistic price target for this cycle, taking into account its positive correlation with Bitcoin. In this article, I will rely on chart analysis using weekly and daily timeframes, applying classical charting tools, Elliott Waves, and Fibonacci extension ratios. 1) According to the medium-term chart (Japanese candlesticks, weekly data), the underlying trend remains bullish above the $3,800 support. The chart below shows that ETH/USD’s long-term trend remains bullish as long as the market price holds above a large triangular pattern that broke upward this summer. The primary trend is therefore bullish above the $3,800 support on a weekly closing basis. The first chart below shows ETH/USD weekly Japanese candlesticks: 2) According to Elliott Wave analysis, the final end-of-cycle target could be $6,000 by late 2025. On this Ethereum (ETH/USD) chart, Elliott Wave analysis shows a five-phase bullish structure, with Wave 5 yet to come. After the Wave 4 correction, the market appears to have found a bottom around $3,800 — an area corresponding to the 0.382 retracement of Wave 3. The current recovery suggests the potential start of the fifth impulsive wave. The theoretical target for Wave 5 is around $6,000, corresponding to a 0.618 Fibonacci extension from the bottom of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3, projected from Wave 4. This level also aligns with a major psychological zone and a classic target for the end of a full bullish cycle. As long as the price stays above $3,800, this remains the most likely technical scenario. The second chart below shows ETH/USD daily Japanese candlesticks: DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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